| Today's Economy
U.S. Consumer Spending Looking Better in Q3 July real spending raised our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP to 3.2%. Final Thoughts Ahead of August Employment There are few guarantees, but a disappointing first print of August employment is one. Harvey Will Lead to a Spike in U.S. Initial Claims New filings could jump well above 300,000 in the next couple of weeks. Poland Cruises Through the Second Quarter Political isolation in Europe could derail the country’s economic outlook. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Examining China's Belt and Road Initiative The BRI is a throwback to the Chinese proverb "if you want to grow rich, first build a road." How Natural Disasters Affect U.S. GDP Harvey's economic cost will not be accurately captured in the national statistics. Population Growth and Inflation A new study suggests weak population growth can be a significant headwind for inflation. Spending Growth in U.S. Modest in 2016 The Consumer Expenditure Survey also paints a picture of strong household income growth.. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Japan
Housing Starts
Jul. 2017: -2.3%
Momentum in Japan's housing market has wavered in 2017. Germany
Lending by Banks
Jul. 2017: 4.1%
German bank lending to the private sector surged in July. Germany
Retail Sales
Jul. 2017: -1.2%
German retail sales retreated at the start of the third quarter, down 1.2% m/m from June, when they rose by 1.3%. Spain
Retail Sales
Jul. 2017: -0.4%
Spain's retail trade disappointed in July and came in well below our expectations. Thailand
Private Consumption
Jul. 2017: 2.3%
Thailand’s consumption is showing no signs of improvement. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2017: US$1.3 bil
Thailand’s trade surplus narrowed to US$1.3 billion in July from US$2.9 billion in June. Germany
Unemployment
Aug. 2017: 5.7%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 5.7% in August, after it fell to this record low in May. Italy
Unemployment
Jul. 2017: 11.3%
Italy's unemployment rate rose to 11.3% in July from 11.1% (before revision) in the previous month. the jobless rate has been faltering in the last few months after improving at the start of the year thanks to the expanding economy. Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2017: 1.5%
The euro zone's annual harmonized inflation strengthened to 1.5% in August from 1.3% a month earlier, according to the preliminary estimates. Euro Zone
Unemployment
Jul. 2017: 9.1%
The euro zone’s unemployment rate remained steady at 9.1% in July, its lowest reading since February 2009. United States
Challenger Report
Aug. 2017: 33,825
The Challenger report provides further confirmation of a healthy labor market. India
GDP
2017Q2: 5.7%
It's difficult to get a good grasp of India's GDP, but the economy has undoubtedly entered a cyclical slowdown after demonetisation was introduced late last year. Brazil
Employment Situation
Jul. 2017: 12.8%
Unemployment continued to decline in July as the economy advanced gradually. Chile
Employment
Jul. 2017: 6.9%
The national unemployment rate averaged 6.9% in the May-July rolling quarter, down from 7.1% a year earlier. Canada
GDP
2017Q2: 4.5%
Full speed ahead! Canadian GDP growth accelerated in the second quarter to 4.5% at an annualized rate, besting the first quarter's already-impressive 3.7% pace. Canada
Industry Output
Jun. 2017: 0.3%
Canadian GDP growth slowed to a more sustainable pace in June after a breakneck month in May. United States
Jobless Claims
August 26: 236,000
The labor market is in good health, and layoffs remain low. United States
Personal Income
Jul. 2017: 0.4%
After no change in June, nominal personal income bounced back with a 0.4% gain in July, exceeding our forecast for a 0.3% increase. United States
PCE Deflator
Jul. 2017: 0.1%
U.S. inflation remains subdued, but we don’t believe it will deter the Federal Reserve from announcing plans to begin reducing its balance sheet in September. United States
Personal Spending
Jul. 2017: 0.2%
Consumer spending growth disappointed in July. United States
Pending Home Sales
Jul. 2017: 109.1
The pending home sales index dropped 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, giving back some of June’s gains and settling close to its April level. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
August 25: -1.48
Financial stress conditions held steady last week, ending a three-week run of rising stress. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
August 25: 30 bil cubic feet
The build in natural gas inventories fell just shy of analyst expectations, which put slight upward pressure on gas prices. South Korea
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2017:
Thailand
Industrial Production
Jul. 2017:
Colombia
Monetary Policy
Aug. 2017: 5.25%
Colombia’s central bank board cut the reference interest rate by another 25 basis points at today’s policy meeting. Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Jul. 2017: 5.9%
According to Argentina’s statistics office, industrial output expanded 5.9% y/y in July (NSA) after advancing 6.6% in June. South Korea
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2017:
South Korea
GDP
2017Q2:
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