Economy.com Daily Update: August 25, 2022

Today's Economy

The German economy performed better than expected, but our outlook is unchanged.

The Beveridge curve could determine if a soft landing happens or not.

The BoK raised its policy rate by 25 bps in August and will proceed with caution from here.

A falling REER points to greater export competitiveness.

Commentary

U.S. and OPEC production growth, slow EU sanctions implementation, and the success of Russia in finding buyers for its oil have been the main factors driving oil prices lower.

At this grim milestone, Ukraine begins a possible counteroffensive to retake territory.

Housing unaffordability, declining births and low immigration are behind our lowered projections.

Despite some recent improvement, inflation and interest rates remain issues of great concern.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
GDP
2022Q2: 0.1% q/q
In the second quarter, German real GDP expanded by 0.1%, a slight upward revision from the preliminary estimate of flat output growth.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2022: -HK$27.6 bil
Hong Kong posted a trade deficit of HKD27.6 billion deficit in July— narrower than our expected trade deficit of HKD60.9 billion.

Norway
Unemployment rate
Jun. 2022: 3.2%
Norway’s unemployment rate ended the three-month April to June period at 3.2%.

France
Job Seekers
Jul. 2022: 2.97 mil
The number of job seekers in France inched up in July to 2.97 million from 2.95 million in June.

Ireland
Unemployment rate
Apr. 2022: 4.4%
The seasonally adjusted Irish unemployment rate continued to decline, printing 4.4% in the second quarter, dropping from 4.9% in the first quarter.

Mexico
Economic Activity Index
Jun. 2022: 1.6% y/y
Economic activity posted another annual advance in June but decreased in monthly terms.

Mexico
GDP
2022Q2: 2.0% y/y
Mexico's economy advanced in the second quarter, staying in positive territory.

United States
Jobless Claims
August 20: 243,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits have dropped over the past couple of weeks, but new filings can be choppy this time of year.

United States
GDP
2022Q2: -0.6%, q/q, SAAR
U.S.

Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Jun. 2022: 3.5% y/y
In Canada, the number of employees receiving pay or benefits from their employer increased by 114,600 in June, rising by 0.7% from the previous month.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
August 19: -1.94
Financial stress rose for the second straight week, with the St.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
August 19: 60 bil cubic feet
Last week’s build in gas stocks matched analyst expectations exactly, so this report will do very little to move natural gas prices.

United States
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Aug. 2022: 3
Manufacturing activity in the Tenth District slowed considerably in August.