Economy.com Daily Update: August 2, 2024

Today's Economy

In July, nonfarm payrolls expanded by just 114,000, well under the consensus forecast.

Iran's Supreme Leader said Israel would face “severe punishment” for an alleged assassination.

Output increased in France and Italy in June.

Headline inflation climbed to 2.6% y/y in July.

Commentary

Monday’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey will provide insight into whether tight lending conditions have persisted in recent months.

The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% triggered a reliable recession indicator.

Colombia’s interest rate is cut while Chile’s stays unchanged.

Labour’s ambitious plan for growth focuses on climate change targets.

Today's Economic Indicators

Switzerland
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2024: 1.3%
Switzerland’s CPI inflation rate remained unchanged in July at 1.3% year over year.

France
Industrial Production
Jun. 2024: 0.8% m/m
France's industrial production rose 0.8% month on month in June, rebounding from a downwardly revised 2.2% drop in May.

Italy
Industrial Production
Jun. 2024: 0.5% m/m
Italy's industrial production rose by 0.5% month over month in June, easily beating our forecast of a 0.5% drop.

Italy
Retail Sales
Jun. 2024: -0.2% m/m
Italy’s retail sales ticked down by 0.2% month over month in June, slightly below our forecast of a 0.1% drop.

Mexico
Employment Situation
Jun. 2024: 2.8% Unemployment
Mexico's unemployment rate began to experience upward pressure as temporary positions were terminated following the elections held at the beginning of the month.

Brazil
Industrial Production
Jun. 2024: 4.8% y/y
Brazil’s industrial production regained traction in June after almost no advance in the previous month.

United States
Employment Situation
Jul. 2024: 114,000 m/m
The labor market is showing signs of stress.

United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Jun. 2024: -3.3% m/m
U.S. factory orders fell sharply in June, though a touch less than Moody’s Analytics expected.

United States
Monthly GDP
Jun. 2024: 0.1% m/m
In June, real GDP grew 0.13%, according to the Moody’s Analytics monthly estimate.

United States
Vehicle Sales - BEA
Jul. 2024: 15.8 mil, SAAR
U.S. light-vehicle sales rebounded in July after a temporary setback caused by a cyberattack on CDK Global, a crucial provider of dealership software systems.