Economy.com Daily Update: August 2, 2018

Today's Economy

BoE raised rates at its August meeting but may take a long breather.

Governor Carney calmed fears of a hawkish U-turn by the bank.

Preliminary estimates suggest that net exports added 0.2 percentage point to second quarter GDP.

An examination of the ratio of the two tells a default risk story, depending on the ratio used.

Commentary

Japan's economy improved in Q2, but it remains well off the solid pace of 2017.

Odds are 4% isn't the new normal.

The focus in this busy week will be on employment.

Juice from the U.S. fiscal stimulus and a still-accommodative Fed will keep the party going.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Challenger Report
Jul. 2018: 27,122
In July, announced job cuts fell to their lowest pace in nearly two years, consistent with the low initial unemployment insurance claims and providing further confirmation of the enduring buoyancy of the labor market.

Brazil
Industrial Production
Jun. 2018: 4.1%
Brazil’s industrial output rebounded nicely in June following the workers strike in May.

United States
Jobless Claims
July 28: 218,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits are bouncing higher, but the overall trend still supports a smoothly running labor market.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Jun. 2018: 9.1%
Chile’s retail and wholesale sales index advanced 9.1% in June.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Aug. 2018: 0.75%
In line with the consensus, the Bank of England delivered its second rate hike in a decade in August and raised its main policy rate to 0.75%, from 0.5% previously.

United States
ISM - NY Report
Jul. 2018: 75
Purchasing managers in New York City are more sanguine than they have been in over a decade.

United States
Risk of Recession
Jun. 2018: 14%
The odds that the U.S. will be in recession in the next six months should be low: Recessions occur when imbalances develop in the economy, and no glaring potential macroeconomic imbalances are forming.

United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Jun. 2018: 0.7%
Factory orders rose 0.7% in June, in line with what we and the consensus expected.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
July 27: -1.21
Financial conditions tightened slightly last week, snapping a streak of three weekly declines.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
July 27: 35 bil cubic feet
The increase in natural gas inventories fell short of analyst expectations, which will apply upward pressure on gas prices.

Mexico
Monetary Policy
Aug. 2018: 7.75%
The Central Bank of Mexico kept monetary policy on hold in August as the peso strengthened.

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Jun. 2018: -8.1%
According to Argentina’s statistics office, industrial output contracted 8.1% y/y in June (NSA), after a 1.2% y/y drop in the previous month.

Australia
Retail Sales
Jun. 2018: