Economy.com Daily Update: August 13, 2021

Today's Economy

The spread of the Delta variant brought the U.S. Back-to-Normal Index to a standstill.

Don't blame stock volatility, blame oil.

Peru stands at the cusp of a political crisis.

The latest euro zone inflation results, driven by energy, were mixed.

Commentary

The U.K.'s gradual reopening fueled spring job growth.

Japan’s core consumer inflation is expected to have cooled in July.

Supply chain disruptions have increased; there's added downside risk to the country's GDP.

We continue to observe very little activity in terms of rental assistance payments to states and localities.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
GDP
2021Q2: 16.1% y/y
Malaysia's second quarter GDP increased by 16.1% y/y, in line with expectations, though inflated due to a low base comparison.

Finland
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2021: 1.9% y/y
Finland’s headline CPI decelerated to 1.9% y/y in July from 2% in June.

France
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2021: 1.2% y/y
French inflation decelerated to 1.2% y/y in July after rising by 1.5% in June.

Spain
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2021: 2.9% y/y
Spain's consumer price index rose by 2.9% in yearly terms in July, after a 2.7% gain in June.

Sweden
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2021: 1.4% y/y
Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose to 1.4% y/y in July from 1.3% in June.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Jun. 2021: €18.1 bil
The euro zone’s not seasonally adjusted trade surplus slid to €18.1 billion in June from €19.9 billion a year earlier.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Jul. 2021: 0.3% m/m
The U.S. imported less inflation in July, and this will need to continue to take some edge off the domestic inflationary pressures.

India
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2021: -US$11.0 bil
India’s merchandise trade deficit rose again last month, to $11 billion from $9.37 billion in June.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2021Q1: 3.3% q/q SAAR

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
August 11: 92.1
The Moody’s Analytics and CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index remains in its Delta variant-induced rut.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Aug. 2021: 70.2
Though the acceleration in inflation is temporary, it appears it is taking a toll on U.S. consumer sentiment along with the jump in COVID-19 cases.

Peru
Monetary Policy
Aug. 2021: 0.50%
Citing the steady rise in inflation expectations, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru raised the policy rate to 0.5% in its August meeting.