Economy.com Daily Update: April 30, 2019

Today's Economy

Gradual improvement in U.S. nominal wage growth will continue.

The GDP and unemployment figures were generally rosy across the board.

Softer global trade and less local investment have weighed on China's manufacturing sector.

More than half of the first quarter’s sequential percent advance by real GDP came from international trade and inventories.

Commentary

Improved U.S. export demand in the March quarter was a product of stronger European demand.

Growth could have been even better but the partial federal government shutdown was a weight.

Don't expect any surprises from the Fed.

The survey data have all but warned of a grim start to the year for the currency area’s economies.

Today's Economic Indicators

France
Household Consumption Survey
Mar. 2019: -0.1%
France's household goods consumption fell by 0.1% m/m in March, slowing the decline relative to the prior month’s 0.4% fall.

France
GDP
2019Q1: 0.3%
Preliminary numbers for France’s first-quarter GDP growth posted at 0.3% q/q, the same rate as in the previous two stanzas, and 1.1% y/y, up from 1% previously.

Spain
Retail Sales
Mar. 2019: 0.4%
Spain’s retail sales momentum continued in March, with growth coming in at 0.4% in seasonally adjusted terms.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2019: US$3.6 bil

Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2019Q1: 1.7%
Taiwan's economic growth moderated further in the first quarter, cooling to 1.7% y/y from 1.8% in the previous quarter, continuing the downward trajectory that started in the second quarter of 2018.

Italy
Unemployment
Mar. 2019: 10.2%
Italy’s labor market strengthened in March with the unemployment rate dropping to 10.2% from 10.5% in February.

Germany
Unemployment
Apr. 2019: 4.9%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.9% in April after it fell to this new record low in March.

Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2019Q1: 0.4%
Preliminary numbers for the euro zone’s first-quarter GDP growth showed a marked improvement over the second half of 2018.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Mar. 2019: 7.7%
The euro zone’s jobless rate dropped to 7.7%, its lowest since October 2008, and beat the consensus forecast of 7.8%.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Mar. 2019: 12.7%
Brazil’s unemployment continued to increase in March, still affected by the typical seasonality in the first few months of the year.

Chile
Employment
Mar. 2019: 6.9%
Chile's national unemployment rate averaged 6.9% in the January-March rolling quarter, unchanged from a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Mar. 2019: 1.3%
Manufacturing production in Chile reported improvement in March on an annual basis, helped by the comparison base of last year.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Mar. 2019: 1.3%
Canadian industrial product prices jumped 1.3% in March.

Canada
Industry Output
Feb. 2019: -0.1%
Canadian GDP took another small step backward in February.

United States
Employment Cost Index
2019Q1: 0.7%
Tightening in the U.S. labor market isn’t generating a ton of pressure on employment costs.

United States
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes
Feb. 2019: 3.0%
House price appreciation decelerated again in February, continuing the slowing trend that has been in place for approximately 11 months.

United States
Pending Home Sales
Mar. 2019: 105.8
The pending home sales index rose 3.8% to 105.8 in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, partially reversing the downward trend experienced over the past couple of years.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
April 26: 125.1
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index increased from a revised 122.1 to 125.1 in the week ended April 26.

United States
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Apr. 2019: 129.2
Consumer confidence recovered from March’s steep decline, gaining ground in the present situations index and in consumer expectations.

South Korea
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2019:

United States
Agricultural Prices
Mar. 2019: 2.8%
The Agricultural Prices Received Index rose 2.8% in March thanks to increases in the crop production index and the livestock production index.

Argentina
Economic Activity Indicator
Feb. 2019: -4.76%
The Argentine statistics office’s monthly economic activity index fell 4.8% y/y in February after dropping 5.8% in the previous month.