Economy.com Daily Update: April 17, 2019

Today's Economy

The nominal trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in March.

The euro zone's trade surplus widened for the first time since April last year.

First-quarter GDP is now on track to rise 2.2% at an annualized rate.

Stimulus measures worked to stabilize March quarter activity.

Commentary

A downturn in financial markets would sting the Northeast, while trade tensions remain an impediment for the Pacific Northwest and Farm Belt.

We look for improvement in housing-related data as past declines in mortgage rates begin to pay dividends.

Beijing’s easing measures will help temper the economic growth slowdown in 2019.

Euro zone inflation numbers are likely to decline slightly; and there is Brexit.

Today's Economic Indicators

South Korea
Monetary Policy
Apr. 2019:

United Kingdom
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2019: 1.8%
The U.K.’s consumer price inflation held firm at 1.8% y/y for the third month in a row in March, beating our expectation of 1.7% y/y.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2019: 1.1%
Italy’s annual harmonized EU inflation rose 1.1% y/y in March, unchanged from February.

Euro Zone
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2019: 1.4%
Inflation in the euro zone moderated in March, but the immediate implications for monetary policy are not significant.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Feb. 2019: €17.9 bil
The euro zone’s external trade surplus expanded to €17.9 billion in February from €16.5 billion a year earlier.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
April 12: -3.5%
The top-line market index had another small contraction in the week of April 12, falling 3.5%.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Feb. 2019: -$49.4 bil
The trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in February, falling $1.8 billion to $49.4 billion.

Canada
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2019: 1.9%
Energy prices helped accelerate the pace of inflation in March.

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Feb. 2019: -C$ 2.9 bil
Canada’s trade deficit narrowed in February, with imports driving the decline.

Russian Federation
Retail Sales
Mar. 2019:

Russian Federation
Unemployment
Mar. 2019:

United States
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
Feb. 2019: 0.2%
The inventory build slowed down in February.

United States
Oil Inventories
April 12: 455.2 mil barrels
A surprise increase in U.S. oil inventories will put downward pressure on oil prices.

United States
Beige Book
Apr. 2019:
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book covering economic activity from March through early April suggests that economic activity growth did not change much since the previous report, while a few districts strengthened.

Australia
Employment Situation
Mar. 2019: