Economy.com Daily Update: April 11, 2025

Today's Economy

Sentiment reaches near-record low as inflation expectations surge amid tariff concerns.

If the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is not extended, Americans will face a nearly $4 trillion tax hike, pushing the U.S. economy to the brink of recession.

The outlook for turmoil in the global auto industry due to the 25% sector-level tariffs announced last week remains unchanged.

Inflation data across major economies close out a volatile week of news.

Commentary

Retail sales likely rebounded strongly in March thanks to robust auto sales.

Tariffs and a weakened global economy overshadow European growth.

We expect a 25-basis point rate cut from the ECB at its April meeting.

The region's economies are grappling with a messy U.S. trade policy.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
Industrial Production
Feb. 2025: 1.5% y/y
Malaysia's industrial production remained soft in February, growing at 1.5% y/y, compared with January's 2.1% pace.

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2025: 2.2% y/y
Inflation edged down to 2.2% year over year in March, slightly below February's 2.3%.

Spain
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2025: 2.3% y/y
In March, Spain's consumer price index rose 2.3% year over year, down from 3% in February.

Sweden
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2025: 0.5% y/y
Sweden’s CPI inflation rate decelerated to 0.5% y/y in March from 1.3% in February.

United Kingdom
Monthly GDP
Feb. 2025: 0.5% m/m
The 0.5% month-on-month jump in U.K.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2025: 5.48% y/y
Annual inflation escalated in March as consumer prices advanced at above-trend rates, and the annual base effect played unfavorably during the month.

Mexico
Industrial Production
Feb. 2025: -1.3% y/y
Mexico’s industrial production continued to contract in February, extending its weakness dragged by construction and manufacturing.

India
Industrial Production
Feb. 2025: 2.9% y/y

World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
Mar. 2025: 3.9% y/y
The Moody’s Analytics measure of global CPI inflation ticked higher to 3.9% y/y in March from 3.8% in February.

United States
Producer Price Index
Mar. 2025: -0.4% m/m
March inflation data are coming in soft.

United States
Moody's Analytics Used Vehicle Price Indexes
Mar. 2025: -4.07 % y/y
The seasonally adjusted Moody’s Analytics Used Vehicle Sale Price Index fell 4.07% year over year and aligned with the lower month-to-month declines reported this year, the latest being 0.49% from February.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Apr. 2025: 50.8
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell further to a historically low level.

Peru
Monetary Policy
Apr. 2025: 4.75%
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.75% in its April meeting.

Russian Federation
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2025: 10.3% y/y

Russian Federation
GDP
2024Q4: 4.5% y/y

Canada
RPS House Price Index
Mar. 2025: 3.7% y/y
The Canadian housing market exhibited a marginal recovery in March, with major markets experiencing a 0.2% price increase, breaking a six-month streak of consecutive declines.

Uruguay
Industrial Production
Feb. 2025: 4.8% y/y
Industrial production in Uruguay grew by 4.8% year on year, mainly because of a 6,338% increase in the oil refinery sector following the reopening of the La Teja refinery.

Argentina
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2025: 55.9% y/y
The national consumer price index rose 3.7% month on month in March, following a 2.4% increase the previous month and 11% a year earlier.