Economy.com Daily Update: April 1, 2020

Today's Economy

Household self-response rates could decrease the need for temporary workers.

Making things more difficult for policymakers amid the COVID-19 pandemic is a paucity of real-time indicators.

More recent data should show conditions deteriorating in the euro zone and the U.K.

Korea's March data are an important signal of what's likely to come for Asia.

Commentary

An accurate forecast of the spread and duration of the disease is a critical component for estimating the economic impact of the virus.

A quantitative analysis of how the pandemic will play out in the U.S.

Consumer fundamentals have changed dramatically, mostly to the bad.

The COVID-19 pandemic’s toll is only beginning to appear in the hard data.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Semiconductor Billings
Feb. 2020:

United States
Vehicle Sales - AutoData
Mar. 2020:

Germany
Retail Sales
Feb. 2020: 1.2%
Real, calendar and seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding motor vehicles trumped market expectations in February, growing 1.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y.

Italy
Unemployment
Feb. 2020: 9.7%
Italy’s unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1 percentage point to 9.7% m/m in February.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Feb. 2020: 7.3%
The euro zone’s jobless rate beat expectations and fell to 7.3% in February, its lowest since March 2008, from 7.4% in January.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
March 27: 15.3%
Mortgage applications increased by 15.3% over the week of March 27, after declining by 29.4% in the previous week.

Chile
Monthly Economic Activity Indicator
Feb. 2020: 2.7%
Despite the deterioration of global conditions, economic activity continued to advance in February.

Brazil
Industrial Production
Feb. 2020: 0.0%
Brazil’s industry started to show incipient effects of the global slowdown in February.

United States
ADP National Employment Report
Mar. 2020: -27,000
The labor market joyride is over as the impact from COVID-19 has just begun.

United States
Construction Spending (C30)
Feb. 2020: -1.3%
Construction spending in February registered below consensus expectations of a 0.6% increase.

United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Mar. 2020: 49.1
The ISM manufacturing survey only slipped in March, but it was propped up by a jump in supplier deliveries.

Russian Federation
GDP
2019Q4: 2.1%
Russian GDP picked up steam in the fourth quarter, with growth accelerating to 2.1% year over year, compared with a downwardly revised 1.5% in the third quarter.

United States
Oil Inventories
March 27: 469.2 mil barrels
Crude oil inventories rose by much more than analysts predicted, which is bad news for struggling oil prices.

China
Manufacturing PMI
Mar. 2020: 52.0

South Korea
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2020: