| | | | Monday, November 16, 2020 | | With one game left in Week 10, it's natural to look ahead to Week 11, and Monday has already given us a few reasons to do so, as we learned both Drew Brees and Drew Lock suffered rib injuries that put their status in doubt for next week. I've got an early look at the waiver wire for Week 11, plus a recap for every game and Heath Cummings' breakdown of the biggest storylines from Sunday in today's newsletter, but first, some thoughts on what those injuries might mean for the Saints and Broncos offenses respectively. | | I'll start with the Broncos, because it's a lot easier to answer: If Lock's injury keeps him out for Week 11 against the Dolphins, you probably want to try to avoid the Broncos offense. The Dolphins are a tough matchup already, with a fearsome pass rush that has made like difficult for much better lines than the Broncos. And, while Lock hasn't been particularly good this season, his willingness to take shots down the field gave Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Tim Patrick some interesting upside. Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien combined to complete just 59.6% of their passes for five touchdowns and six interceptions with Lock out earlier in the season, and Rypien struggled in what should have been a cake matchup against the Jets in his only start. Jeudy would be in the No. 3 WR discussion, but he could end up matched up against Xavien Howard, which would make him a risky bet. It would be better to avoid this situation. | | As for the Saints, well … I have a sneaking suspicion that Brees absence may not be a bad thing for the passing game. I don't think Jameis Winston is necessarily a better quarterback than Brees, but I'm pretty confident he's not worse for Fantasy. Where Brees will make the smart play to check down, Winston is willing to stand in the pocket to wait for deeper routes to develop or to extend plays to try to make a big splash. That'll lead to more turnovers, but it also creates more opportunity for the passing game weapons to put up big numbers -- just consider how the Buccaneers have a better offense with Tom Brady that has nonetheless been less conducive to production for their top receivers. At the very least, if Winston starts in Week 11 against the Falcons, I wouldn't be looking to downgrade anyone in the Saints offense -- and he would stand as a potential difference maker on the waiver wire, too. | | Now, here's everything you need to know from Week 10 before we officially turn the page. And, as always, if you want your questions answered, send them directly to me at [email protected] with the subject line "#AskFFT" for inclusion in Tuesday's Week 11 preview mailbag. Hit me with your toughest questions! | | | | Week 11 Early Waiver Preview | | | | We'll have Jamey Eisenberg's full waiver-wire priorities list for you Tuesday, but here's an early look at my top options for the week: | | Salvon Ahmed (6%) -- At least for as long as Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida are out, Ahmed is the guy to have in Miami's backfield. He rushed for 85 yards and got 21 of 29 running back touches Sunday. Even if Breida returns in Week 11 against the Broncos, it's possible Ahmed will still be the lead rusher, with Breida working more in passing situations. Kalen Ballage (60%) -- As with Ahmed, Ballage's Fantasy appeal is contingent on Justin Jackson's health, but it didn't sound like Jackson was close to playing last week, so Week 11 is in question as well. Ballage has acquitted himself quite nicely in two games with the Chargers, and he gets a premium matchup against the Jets in Week 11. Michael Pittman (10%) -- Pittman might just be the No. 1 receiver for the Colts for the rest of the season. That's not as valuable a role as it might be in other offenses for a lot of reasons, but you have to like his 15 targets over the last two games since returning to a full-time role. I could see the rookie being a solid Fantasy starter down the stretch. Jakobi Meyers (57%) -- Meyers has 37 targets over the last four games, with at least four catches and 58 yards in each. He is firmly in place in the Julian Edelman role for the Patriots, and unless Edelman makes an unexpected return in Week 11 against the Texans, Meyers will be worth starting in that matchup. Jameis Winston (3%) -- The concern with Winston would be that Taysom Hill will mix in more than he did with Brees, but Winston was still on the field for 34 of 37 second half snaps in Week 10, even though Hill played a whopping 16. If anything, what we saw last season when Teddy Bridgewater started for the Saints was a reduction in Hill's role in the offense, since he was the only backup quarterback. If Winston starts in Week 11 against the Falcons, he'll be a borderline top-12 QB. | | | | Week 10's Winners & Losers | | | | I break down every game on the schedule every week, focusing on the biggest winners and losers and something you might have missed if you weren't watching the game. Here are my biggest winners and losers from Sunday's games: | | Biggest winners | | D'Andre Swift -- The Lions announced before Sunday's game that Swift would be getting his first start, and he made the most of it. Swift rushed for 81 yards on 16 carries and added 68 yards on five catches, by far his best game yet. He's been the most impressive Lions running back all season, and his 43 snaps Sunday are the most by any back for Detroit this season. Things could change, but if the Lions are smart, he'll be the go-to guy the rest of the way, and a must-start Fantasy player. Ronald Jones -- When Jones fumbled on his first catch Sunday, I was sure it was going to be a Leonard Fournette game. After all, Bruce Arians has had something like a one-strike policy for Jones the last two seasons. However, he kept the faith in Jones and Jones rewarded him with an absolute monster game, highlighted by his 98-yard touchdown run. It doesn't mean Jones won't wind up in the dog house at some point in the future, but this was a pretty strong show of faith in a back who hasn't always had that in his favor. Ben Roethlisberger -- Big Ben isn't the same guy he used to be -- he has attempted just 14 passes 30-plus yards down the field, compared to between 35 and 40 in each year from 2015 through 2018 -- but the Steelers have wisely put a great group of receivers who can make plays after the catch around him to make up for that, and we saw them at full strength Sunday. It won't always be that good, and Roethlisberger's more conservative approach means those ceiling games will be less frequent, but against the right matchup, there's still plenty of upside in this offense. | | Biggest losers | | Chase Edmonds -- Kenyan Drake was back from his ankle injury, and the Cardinals reverted back to their status quo in the backfield. That mean eight carries and three catches for Edmonds. That's the role when Drake is healthy, and given that Edmonds didn't exactly impress when he got the opportunity to be the lead back, it'll probably take an injury before he gets that opportunity again. T.J. Hockenson -- Hockenson certainly isn't lacking in ability, but we saw the downside of his role Sunday. Because he averages just 10.4 yards per catch and 7.0 yards per target for the season, he either needs a bunch of targets or a touchdown to have a good game. You'll still start him because he has a better chance of either than most tight ends, but he's still a touchdown-or-bust guy unless his role changes significantly. Joshua Kelley -- It feels like a long time ago that we were viewing Kelley as a potential Fantasy star, and now that he has been firmly supplanted by Kalen Ballege (and Justin Jackson, when healthy), there doesn't seem to be much reason to hang on to him with Austin Ekeler's return looming. | | | | Believe It or Not: Must Start McKissic? | | | | Every week, Heath holds some of the biggest narratives in the NFL up to the microscope to see if you should buy into them. Here are the biggest storylines for Week 10 and whether you should believe in them and adjust your strategies accordingly: | | Believe it or not: Miles Sanders is the only Eagle you should start regularly. Believe it or not: Both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic are starters in PPR. Believe it or not: Kalen Ballage is a must-start running back until Austin Ekeler returns. Believe it or not: Brandon Aiyuk will be the best rookie wide receiver rest of season. Believe it or not: Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are droppable. | | Sort out fact from fiction here. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | Parlay Pick'em | ✔Scores & Highlights
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