Early predictions, a MAGA succession fight and the Black male voter industrial complex

November 5, 2024

Congration, America. You done it.

You made it to Election Day. Once upon a time, Election Day was a time where moms and dads would stop by the local polling precinct between home and work, pull a lever and gather round the television to await word from Peter Jennings or Tom Brokaw of the next leader of the free world, all before bedtime cookies and milk.

Things have changed to say the least. Like parents whose children have outgrown the magic of Santa, many of us are happy to doze off before ballots even start being counted on the West Coast. But I'm hopeful that there's still some Election Day magic to be had.

This week, I've got some low-stakes predictions for Election 2024. Plus, we've got a story about the fascinating history of Native American voters, whose strength at the polls has quietly grown in recent years (and, spoiler alert: only one major candidate appears to be courting them).

Let's talk about it.

Low-stakes predictions

First, let me say for the record that anything that can be construed as opinion in this section, is mine and mine only. Although I will be sharing them on official Reckon platforms. I think we might actually see several November surprises before the clock strikes midnight tonight.

An earlier-than-expected call. Big Media are all singing the same tune: It's going to be a historically close tossup election and we likely won't know who the 47th president will be for days or weeks. I don't know though. This cycle, we have a few battleground states in the first round of poll closures. None of them is more important than Georgia. Since the 2020 fiasco for which Trump got himself indicted in Fulton County, the Peach State has passed a law requiring early votes be counted first and within an hour after polls close.

Recent reports show that some 75% of all Georgia ballots were cast early, meaning that we'll know a lot fairly quickly. If Kamala Harris bests Trump in early votes, then logic dictates same-day votes in and around Atlanta will break heavily in the veep's direction. If early votes are close, the state belongs to Harris.

Red-state bellwethers. No poll I've seen has Florida in reach of Vice President Harris. However, in the past week or so, there have been some rumblings in the Harris-sphere that Kamala might be doing much better with the Florida Man than the polls indicate. Florida also allows early votes to be counted before Election Day. I'll say this: If, within an hour or so of the polls closing in the Butterfly Ballot state, if Kamala is even within 5 points of Trump, it's going to be tough sledding for the former president. The same could be said of North Carolina, which hasn't voted for a Democratic president since 2008.

The overwhelming and convincing affirmation of abortion rights. In 2022, I suppose you could give pundits and the Grand Ol' Party a pass in underestimating the sheer magnitude of the Dobbs decision and the overturning of Roe v. Wade as an animation force in federal and state elections. By now, the evidence is unshakeable. Abortions rights are clocking in as top issues for men and women planning to vote Democratic this year.

Read more about what's at stake from my colleague Annabel Rocha in Reckon's abortion voting guide here.

Republicans will lose the popular vote (and may never win it again). 1988 was the last time a sitting vice president immediately succeeded their president to the White House (remember Al Gore tried and failed; again, see Florida). 1988 and 2004 were also the only cycles in the past 35 years where Republicans won the popular vote. Given demographic trends in the U.S. (and looking at the GOP's bench), it's hard to see Republicans winning the popular majority today or for the foreseeable future.

Inconclusive narrative about Black men. Personally, if I never again see another barbershop town hall or campaign spot, it'll be too soon. Much ado has been made about voting trends among Black men and what to make of it all: Black men are falling in love with Trump, too many stubbornly refuse to support a female president. Make no mistake, Black men will turnout in hefty numbers for Kamala Harris. However, if Trump does so much as 1 percentage better with Black voters than he did in 2020 (which he might), a cottage industry will arise around courting Black men in barbershops.

Bonus: One of the issues that Black voters have raised this year is whether candidates support reparations for slavery. Writing for Reckon, Rebekah Sager looked at how some former plantations are reclaiming narratives and moving beyond gross plantation tourism as a form of reparation.

A bloody fight for MAGA succession. Win or lose for Donald Trump, there will be a vacuum for his successor at the head of the MAGA coalition. The odds would favor Trump's running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, who has spent the last few years morphing himself into a MAGA and Trump acolyte despite calling the man he wants to serve under America's Hitler. The problem is that Vance is widely disliked by Trump supporters, even more so than was Sarah Palin, according to some reporters.

MAGA flirted a lil bit with Vivek Ramaswamy; less so with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. It's hard to see either of them carrying the MAGA mantle. Republicans have plenty of non-MAGA pols on their bench who could have broader appeal, such as former Ambassador Niki Haley or, if MAGAism prevails tonight and normal Republicans feel safe enough to return to the public sphere, old-school stalwarts Chris Christie (or Joe Rogan, Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson et al). Personally, I don't think it could be anyone who doesn't carry the surname Trump. Even then, those kids would turn on each other like defendants in the Dominion lawsuit. My money's on Ivanka, though.

A medley of offsetting surprises. I can totally see zany scenarios like Trump winning New Hampshire but losing North Carolina. Or Harris loses Nevada but pulls it out in Georgia. I've long said that in a divided U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans have just a four-seat majority, a new majority-Black congressional district in Alabama could be pivotal for control of Congress' lower chamber.

In summation, I predict chaos.

Happy voting!

'Sleeping giants'

Of course no voting bloc is a monolith, but you rarely hear pundits and pollsters talk about one particular group of American voters — Native Americans. Reckon's Chris Harress has this story about how Indigenous Americans fought for the right to vote in U.S. elections, how they have quietly increased their voting strength in recent years and how they could be a sleeping giant today.

As the United States commemorates the 100th anniversary of the Snyder Act of 1924—legislation that granted citizenship and voting rights to Native Americans—tribal voices are poised to play a pivotal role in the election. In swing states like Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where even slight shifts in voting patterns can tip outcomes, Native American voices have the power to decide elections at the local level and all the way to the White House.

“In 2018, Deb Haaland became the first Native congresswoman, and then from there, she became the Secretary of Interior,” said April Ignacio of the Arizona and Mexico-based Tohono O’odham Nation and Co-Founder of Indivisible Tohono, during a recent Native voting webinar hosted by the Indigenous Journalists Association. “That’s the power of the Native vote.”

While Native voting trends are not easy to find, Native participation since 2018 has increased substantially thanks to a mixture of grassroots advocacy and legislative changes at the state and federal level.

But the long path to the ballot box for Native Americans has been fraught with challenges. Although the Snyder Act granted American citizenship and the right to vote, indigenous voters have faced a century of voter suppression that is far from over.

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