Early Indications Show September Home Prices Falling Less Than July/August

Roughly 2 weeks ago, home price indices (HPIs) from Case Shiller and the FHFA came out for the month of August. Both were in agreement that prices declined slightly more rapidly than they had in July. Here is our coverage of that news at the time: Home Prices Fell Even Faster in August, But Still Up Big Year-Over-Year Home price fluctuations are more interesting than normal right now for a few reasons. First off, prices had been going nowhere but up until this summer, and it wasn't until these past two months of HPIs that the data really reflected that. Additionally, July and August are important months for this to be occurring because Q3 is the last quarter of data needed to calculate a new conforming loan limit. New data out today provides an early glimpse at September's trend. Black Knight's Mortgage Monitor includes an updated HPI. It shows September prices declining at roughly half of the pace seen in July and August. Black Knight's price data tends to track fairly well with the FHFA data (which is used for the loan limit calculation). Compare the green line above to the blue line below (from our coverage on October 25th): With Black Knight's annual appreciation level falling to 10.7%, it's not unlikely that FHFA numbers will show a similar decline when they come out at the end of the month. If the proportions are the same, FHFA price appreciation would fall to exactly 10.0% year-over-year, and the new implied conforming loan limit would be in the neighborhood of $711,800. NOTE: the hypothetical math above is just that: hypothetical. The new conforming loan limit for 2023 will not be finalized until Tuesday November 29th. Moreover, it is based on quarterly data that hasn't been updated since August (the preceding estimates are extrapolations based on monthly data which can vary slightly from the quarterly data).

November 7, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Early Indications Show September Home Prices Falling Less Than July/August Roughly 2 weeks ago, home price indices (HPIs) from Case Shiller and the FHFA came out for the month of August. Both were in agreement that prices declined slightly more rapidly than they had in July. Here is our coverage of that news at ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Hold Their Ground Despite Bond Market Volatility Mortgage rates are directly linked to trading levels in the bond market. When bonds have a bad day, rates tend to rise. While that was true for the rates associated with US Treasuries (aka "yields," officially), the mortgage market held i... (read more) MBS Commentary MBS Outperform as Treasuries Fret Over Issuance MBS Outperform as Treasuries Fret Over Issuance As Thursday's CPI looms on the horizon as this week's defining moment for the bond market, traders are passing the time by fretting over issuance concerns. ... (read more) Rob Chrisman MSR Analysis, Appraisal, Outsourcing, Compliance Tools; Agency News Do whatever you want to your clock, it doesn’t change the feeding time of your pets! Friday’s a holiday… Want to help out your vet (veteran, not veterinary) clients? There are plenty of good things that businesses and services are offering to veteran... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.25% -0.04% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.25% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.62% -0.13 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.80% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.35% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.90% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.82% -0.07 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/7 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.62% -0.13% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.95% -0.13 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 6.29% -0.07 1.20 5/1 Yr. ARM 5.95% -0.01 0.20 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/3 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.06% -0.10 0.73 15 Yr. Fixed 6.37% -0.02 1.05 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.55% +0.02 0.70 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/2 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 96.22 -0.19 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 96.22 -0.19 UMBS 5.5 98.39 -0.14 GNMA 5.0 96.67 -0.34 GNMA 5.5 98.91 -0.23 Pricing as of: 11/7 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2177 +0.0527 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.726 +0.068 5 YR Treasury 4.393 +0.062 7 YR Treasury 4.313 +0.060 10 YR Treasury 4.218 +0.053 30 YR Treasury 4.322 +0.066 Pricing as of: 11/7 5:31PM EST Latest Video The Fed is looking at the wrong housing indicators, says Wharton's Jeremy S... For the Fed to reach its inflation target, it has to get the unemployment r... The 9am Bond Report - November 7, 2022 Banks pull back loans from the commercial real estate sector Around the Web CNBC Homeowners have lost $1.5 trillion in equity since May, as home prices drop CNBC Consumer confidence in the housing markets hits a new low, according to Fannie Mae Black Knight Black Knights September 2022 Mortgage Monitor Calculated Risk Blog Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in October; Prices Down 10.6% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Housing November 7th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased Slightly Week-over-week Calculated Risk Blog Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC Treasury yields climb as investors seek clarity on inflation from Fed speakers, economic data Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Weekly Inventory Up 40% Year-over-year; Now Above Same Week in 2020 CNBC Fed officials Barkin and Collins see possibility for slower rate hikes ahead Wall Street Journal Fed's Collins Signals Support for Slowing Pace of Interest Rate Increase CNBC U.S. payrolls surged by 261,000 in October, better than expected as hiring remains strong Calculated Risk Blog Comments on October Employment Report Calculated Risk Blog Early Q4 GDP Tracking and Upward Revisions to Q3 GDP

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