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Tuesday, May 25, 2021
On Monday's episode of Fantasy Football Today, Dave Richard and Heath Cummings took a look at early ADP trends and highlighted their favorite values at each position. Sure, we're nearly four months away from the start of the season, but it's never too early to gauge the wisdom of the crowd!
Obviously, plenty will change between now and when most of you draft. But I'll also point out that the people drafting in high-stakes leagues right now are probably sharper than your average player, which means there's definitely value in looking at what drafters in National Fantasy Championship leagues are doing even at this early date.
As we get closer to the season, some of these values will fade while some others will come into sharper focus when we get through minicamps and into training camp. Position hierarchies will become more clear and -- unfortunately, as happens every season -- injuries will cause seismic shifts as activity ramps up.
Still, there's plenty we can learn from what's going on now, because early trends and assumptions can be hard to shake. I've got some favorite values from Heath and Dave based on current ADP, but you should really listen to the podcast to hear what they've got to say about each one below:
For convenience, I've time stamped the parts of the podcast where they talked about each position below. And I've got my five favorite early values and five players I'm not likely to draft if their prices stay where they currently are -- including two established superstars and two more many are hoping will make that leap!
Before that, here's what the CBS Fantasy team has been up to that you need to read: 
Early ADP review
Based on drafts since the end of the NFL Draft at NFC:
Five early values I like
  1. Joe Mixon (19.9) -- I have Mixon as my No. 7 RB and a top-12 player overall, so I'd be thrilled to get him late in the second round as the No. 15 RB. Maybe I'm being too bull-ish on his projected role in the passing game, but I think he could finally be the elite Fantasy RB people have been waiting for him to be. He's always had talent, and now he has an opportunity. 
  2. Chris Carson (40.9) -- Carson is going to be a target for me in every draft because I've got him as a top-25 player overall. There are injury concerns, to be sure, but he's a three-down back in an offense that wants to lean heavily on the run, and we've seen him be a very valuable Fantasy player in this role. I don't see much reason that should change.
  3. D.J. Moore (56.8) -- My guess is Sam Darnold won't be an upgrade on Teddy Bridgewater, but he can't be much worse than Kyle Allen and Will Grier, right? Moore was a top-15 WR catching passes from those guys in 2019, and while I don't want to say that's his floor, I'm pretty confident Moore is going to be a must-start Fantasy WR no matter what. And, if something clicks with Darnold, he could emerge as a legitimate do-it-all, No. 1 WR like Stefon Diggs did with another much-maligned young QB last season. 
  4. Tyler Lockett (60.2) -- Lockett gets dinged for some perceived inconsistency, and it's not entirely unfair -- he had just four games last season with more than 70 yards, after all. Still, he's had eight touchdowns or more in three straight seasons and has seen his target total increase by 22 or more in each of the past two. Whether DK Metcalf is the true No. 1 here or not, Lockett is still going to see plenty of opportunities for big performances. 
  5. Matt Ryan (87.1) -- Jones' status could play a big role in how Ryan is perceived for Fantasy, but as long as he has Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts and Jones (for now) on his side, he's going to be someone you want to start for Fantasy. If you want to wait to take a QB, Ryan is the 13th one being drafted right now. That's great value. 
Five early values I don't like
  1. Nick Chubb (11.8) -- Chubb is a great rusher, but he needs to be arguably the best in football to justify this kind of cost. He was that in 2020, rushing for 5.6 yards per carry and scoring once every 15.8 carries and finished as RB8 in points per game in PPR. If he had averaged his career marks of 5.2 yards per carry and one touchdown per 24.3 carries -- still very-good marks! -- he would've been RB20. Which is to say, if Chubb is merely "very good," he's probably a disappointment for Fantasy. 
  2. J.K. Dobbins (24.0) -- Dobbins shares a lot of the same qualities with Chubb, except he's also got some questions about what his workload will be. He should be the lead back for the Ravens, but over the past few seasons, that's typically meant around 12-15 carries most weeks, with a limited passing game role. Given that, it's hard to justify paying a premium price. I would want to wait at least another round, which means I won't draft him much. 
  3. Mike Evans (42.1) -- Evans finished as WR16 last season despite 13 touchdowns on just 109 targets, and he's the 13th WR being drafted right now. Maybe he repeats that touchdown rate, but I wouldn't bet on it -- especially if Antonio Brown is healthy to start the season. Evans is more like a low-end No. 2 WR for me, at best, not a fringe No. 1. 
  4. CeeDee Lamb (44.2) -- It's not unreasonable to expect Lamb to take a big step forward in his second season, especially after he played just five games with Dak Prescott as a rookie. And he was excellent in those five games, with a 1,386-yard, 93-catch pace. However, he's actually currently going ahead of Amari Cooper -- and Jones and Robert Woods, among others -- and I just can't justify that yet. Cooper is still likely to be the top target in this offense, and reaching for Lamb that early isn't a move I can make at a position this stacked. 
  5. Robert Tonyan (110.3) -- Tonyan is one of the more obvious regression candidates in the league, and I'm just not going to draft someone who finished 24th among tight ends in targets as my starter. He'll be relegated to the streaming heap before long. 
FFT: Favorite values
Dave's favorite: Trevor Lawrence (89 overall, QB15)
  • After Matt Ryan 
  • Before Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson
Heath's favorite: Taysom Hill (193 overall, QB30)
  • After Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Before Jimmy Garoppolo, Cam Newton
Rounds 1-3
Heath: Aaron Jones (13 overall, RB10)
  • After Cam Akers
  • Before Austin Ekeler, D'Andre Swift
Dave: Travis Etienne (38 overall, RB22)
  • After David Montgomery
  • Before Chris Carson, Kareem Hunt
Rounds 4-8
Heath: Mike Davis (105 overall, RB35)
    • After David Johnson
    • Before Jeff Wilson, Damien Harris
Dave: Leonard Fournette (76 overall, RB31)
  • After Raheem Mostert
  • Before A.J. Dillon, Kenyan Drake
Rounds 9+
Heath: Jamaal Williams (136 overall, RB47)
    • After Alexander Mattison
    • Before Devin Singletary, Trey Sermon
Dave: James Conner (118 overall, RB43)
    • After Michael Carter
    • Before Gus Edwards, J.D. McKissic
Rounds 1-3
Heath: A.J. Brown (26 overall, WR8)
    • After Justin Jefferson
    • Before Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen
Dave: Mike Evans (41 overall, WR13)
    • After Terry McLaurin
    • Before Chris Godwin, Julio Jones
Rounds 4-8
Heath: Robby Anderson (88 overall, WR35)
    • After Will Fuller
    • Before DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
Dave: Chase Claypool (66 overall WR27)
    • After Tyler Lockett
    • Before Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Rounds 9+
Heath: Brandin Cooks (104 overall, WR42)
    • After Marquise Brown
    • Before Jarvis Landry, Michael Pittman
Dave: Elijah Moore (201 overall, WR72)
    • After Terrace Marshall
    • Before Darius Slayton, Emmanuel Sanders
Dave: T.J. Hockenson 72 overall, TE5
  • After Mark Andrews
  • Before Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert
Heath: Mark Andrews (64 overall, TE4)
  • After the Big Three
  • Before Hockenson, Pitts
 
 
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