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Tuesday, October 26, 2021 |
Happy Tuesday everyone! It's Dan Schneier here getting you prepared for Game 1 of the World Series tonight as the Houston Astros host the Atlanta Braves with first pitch set for 8:09 ET. The Astros return to the World Series for the third time in five years while the Braves are back for the first time since 1999. |
Game 1 will be an interesting barometer for the entire series. Will the Astros stay red hot against right-handed pitching? They draw a familiar face in right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton. Combine Houston's propensity to slap around right-handed pitchers with Atlanta's 2021 track record of allowing a lot of runs to teams with strong lineups and we might be looking at a nice spot to jump on the Houston team run total over. As Sportsline's Justin Perri alluded to on The Early Edge podcast, the Braves surrendered an average of 6.6 runs against the Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays, going a combined 2-11 against them in the regular season, and the Astros are arguably a better lineup. |
The Astros also enter this game undefeated at home during the 2021 postseason with their three losses all coming on the road. During the regular season, the Braves were a mere 6-14 on the road. The deck seems stacked against Atlanta, at least in Game 1, but we've been down that road all postseason and the Braves have prevailed. Atlanta should be coming with a lot of firepower of its own in this one too. Jorge Soler joins the lineup as a DH and its two hottest hitters -- Eddie Rosario and Freddie Freeman -- are lefties who will benefit from the short porch in Houston. |
Game 1 should hopefully be a slugfest that can satisfy any baseball fan, but we also want to keep everyone in the loop on everything you need to know about Fantasy Baseball heading into the offseason so you can be fully prepared for your 2022 drafts. Today, we'll dive into Scott White's early rankings at three key positions: shortstop, second base and third base. We'll also dive into some of the key hot topics -- is Francisco Lindor the perfect buy low candidate -- and a lot more. |
Of course, as always, you can follow to make sure you get the latest episodes of Fantasy Baseball Today right when they drop on Apple and Spotify. |
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Early 2022 Shortstop Rankings |
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2021 Year in Review |
These were the top-five shortstops in Roto scoring formats: |
Blue Jays SS Bo Bichette: .298, 29 HR, 121 runs, 102 RBI, 25 SBDodgers SS Trea Turner: .328, 28 HR, 107 runs, 77 RBI, 32 SBPadres SS Fernando Tatis: 282, 42 HR, 99 runs, 97 RBI, 25 SBBlue Jays SS/2B Marcus Semien: 265, 45 HR, 115 runs, 102 RBI, 15 SBTwins SS Jorge Polanco: .269, 33 HR, 97 runs, 98 RBI, 11 SB |
Scott White got things started real early when he broke out the early 2022 Shortstop Rankings. These are a few of the rankings that stood out the most, and we'll break those down today. Let's start with the rising star likely to get the Vlad Guerrero recency bias treatment in drafts -- in other words -- good luck getting him after Round 4. And that's Rays SS Wander Franco. Overall, Shortstop is a deep position loaded with talent heading into 2022 drafts even after seeing some of the top-drafted shortstops from 2021 fall back a bit. |
"The talent pool only seems to increase even as some of the best falter." - Scott White |
Franco comes in as the No. 8 shortstop in Scott's early rankings just behind former first-round Fantasy pick Trevor Story and just ahead of Carlos Correa. |
Scott: The undisputed top prospect in baseball from the time he was 18 debuted at age 20 and made a strong impression, striking out just 11 times over the final two months. He may not elevate well enough for big power right away, but it could come quickly and with a great batting average in the meantime. Slot him ahead of Trevor Story in points leagues. |
Coming in at No. 12 is Mets SS Francisco Lindor. While Franco is likely to be one of the buzziest players at the position, Lindor is most likely to be viewed as a bounce-back candidate destined to be a great value on draft day, but should that be the case? Here's what Scott had to say about Lindor's early outlook for 2022: The soon-to-be 28-year-old looked like a perennial first-rounder not too long ago, which earns him some benefit of the doubt. When you consider, though, that his power spike came during the first full year of the juiced ball (2017) and relied on him putting the ball in the air a ton, it's possible he'll need to change his swing to account for the new baseball. It's a cross-your-fingers type of pick. |
Lindor will enter this spring as a prime bounce-back candidate, but should he be? |
Scott has a theory with Lindor that is not so favorable for him going forward. He's seeing this a lot where you look at the timeline of the juiced ball era and when a player took off as a power hitter, it aligns with Lindor. The juice ball era began in the second half of 2016. When Lindor broke in during the 2015 season, he was built for batting average. In 2017, the first full year of the juiced ball era, Lindor took off as a power hitter with 33 home runs. This was also when Lindor changed his approach and became more of a fly ball hitter. This past year, with the juiced ball eliminated, he's still hitting fly balls at the same rate he was when he broke through in 2017 with 33 home runs -- but now they're just not leaving the park like they used to. Scott is not sure with the new ball that Lindor is capable of being that first-round Fantasy draft pick. Long term, Scott believes Lindor might need to change his approach and become less of a fly ball hitter -- but he's not sure he'll be willing to do that. |
And if you're looking for sleepers, Scott already has top Royals prospect Bobby Witt ranked inside his top 20: The prospect we were all begging to see called up this year will certainly arrive next year, and presumably sooner than later. If there's even an inkling he makes the opening day roster, he'll move up a couple spots in these rankings. Expect him to be the first minor-leaguer drafted after hitting .290 with 33 homers, 29 steals and a .936 OPS. |
Scott considers shortstop both the deepest and most talented positions from 1-20 heading into 2022 of all the infield positions. If there's one position you can afford to miss out on the early rounds when it comes to the infield, this is the one, but that doesn't mean you should be passing up on the studs. |
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Early 2022 Second Base Rankings |
Scott White got also broke out the early 2022 Second Base Rankings. These are a few of the rankings that stood out the most and we'll break those down today. |
No. 2 -- Blue Jays 2B/SS Marcus Semien: Statcast flagged him as an overachiever from the beginning, but the production just kept getting better and better. What we're left with is a player who, for all of his prior mediocrity, has delivered elite numbers two of the past three years. He may not return to the Blue Jays, but he actually hit the majority of his home runs on the road. |
No. 4 -- Astros 2B Jose Altuve: He continues to sell out for power during the second act of his career, reaching the 30-homer threshold for the second time in three years, and has basically given up on stealing bases. But he put to rest any concerns about him being merely a product of the sign-stealing scandal and remains a top contributor at age 31. |
No. 9 -- Mets 2B/SS Javier Baez: The tightrope walk only seems to be getting tighter for Baez as he ages. He has overcome poor plate discipline in the past with outlier BABIPs and home run-to-fly ball rates, but he pushed those marks to their upper limits in 2021. Maybe ignorance is bliss and you should just enjoy the numbers for what they are, at least in 5x5 leagues. |
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News and notes |
Rafael Devers' arm issue that he dealt with throughout the postseason was merely elbow inflammation and will not require surgeryJordan Hicks concluded a rehab stint at the Arizona Fall League on Sunday and is expected to compete for a spot in the big-league rotation during spring training. Minor league career: (37 games, 34 starts): 3.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 140 K in 168.2 IP Speaking of the Cardinals, they hired Oliver Marmol as their new manager. He was their bench coach for the past two years and is just 35 years old.Corey Seager told reporters that he would love to return to the Dodgers when he becomes a free agent this offseason.Bob Klapisch of the Newark Star-Ledger hears from "a family member" that Anthony Rizzo is "eager" to stay with the Yankees.Spencer Torkelson's sprained ankle will rule him out for the remainder of the Arizona Fall League. |
Early 2022 Third Base Rankings |
Scott White also dove into his early 2022 Third Base rankings. Here are a few of the rankings that stood out: |
No. 2 -- Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers: At 25, you could see him growing into more batting average, especially since he already had that one year when he hit an unlikely .311. But right now, Devers is more of a three-category standout, which would make him something of a reach in the second round if not for position scarcity. |
No. 4 -- Braves 3B Austin Riley: He went above and beyond the breakout so many touted for him coming into the year, outperforming the numbers Statcast pegged him for, and so a half step back would be the reasonable expectation. But 80-90 percent of his 2021 production would likely still justify this ranking. |
No. 14 -- Yankees 2B/3B DJ LeMahieu: I have him ranked 17th at second base and 22nd at first (for 5x5 scoring, anyway), which gives you a sense of how desperate things have become at third base. You could justify taking him as high as 12th here, if only for the multi-eligibility, but unlike Matt Chapman and Yoan Moncada, I believe LeMahieu to be a pretty obvious casualty of the deadened ball. |
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