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| Wednesday, February 17, 2021 |
| There's no offseason for those of you who play in Dynasty and keeper leagues, and that includes more and more people every year. If you're not playing in a multi-year league, it's time to consider it, mostly because it just means more Fantasy football. More drafting, more trading, more roster decisions, more everything. If you had a great 2020, you get to carry that over to 2021; if you suffered through a tough 2020, you're staring at a top pick in a rookie class that seems to be legitimately worth dreaming about. |
| I love my re-draft leagues, but I would be lying if I said the keeper leagues aren't more fun on the whole. So, how about this: If you're in a Dynasty or keeper league and you're looking for someone to fill a spot, email me at [email protected] and I'll post your league opening right here in this newsletter. And, if you want to get into one of those leagues, hit me up at that same email address and I'll see if I can't hook you up with a league. |
| Of course, while I can give you advice for these longer-term leagues, it's a different type of game than a re-draft league, and it requires a different type of focus. I'll spend the next two months getting familiar with that incoming rookie class and adjusting my rankings for free agency and trades, but the best advice is going to be from someone who focuses on this format all the time, and for that, I point you in Heath Cummings' direction. Heath is our Dynasty guy here at CBS Fantasy, and you can find his offseason coverage in one place, right here . Heath will be updating his Dynasty rankings for each position all offseason, and you'll also find our upcoming mock drafts, rookie prospect profiles, and more right there, so make sure you bookmark it as you do your research. |
| Today and tomorrow in this newsletter, we'll take a look at each position for Dynasty, starting with quarterback and running back, including Heath's tiers and rankings for each. But, if you're looking to make a trade now, Heath's dynasty trade chart and overall top-150 rankings will help point you in the right direction, and he'll be doing regular mailbag columns to answer your questions directly throughout the offseason. The first one is here, focusing on Alvin Kamara's long-term trade value and some potential tight-end breakout targets. |
| And now, here's what the future of QB and RB looks like heading into the offseason: |
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| Quarterback |
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| QB Rankings | QB Tiers |
| Patrick Mahomes is in a tier of his own in both re-draft and Dynasty values, and for good reason. Coming out of his age-25 season, he's averaged 4,931 passing yards and 41 touchdowns with just eight interceptions per-16 games in three seasons as a starter. He's only missed three games in that time, and one of them was in Week 17 of the 2020 season -- when he rested. It doesn't get better than this. |
| After that, it gets interesting, with the trio of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen in Tier 2 and Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert in Tier 3. I would argue Watson belongs a tier up -- he's only eight months older than Allen -- but the uncertainty surrounding his future home or what the Texans offense will look like might be enough to push him down. That might be enough to make him worth buying low on before we get some certainty about his long-term home because Watson proved in 2020 he can be an elite Fantasy QB no matter who he is throwing to. Whether he's in Houston or somewhere else -- my top hoped-for destinations are here -- Watson should be an elite Fantasy QB. |
| One more thing to note: There is one rookie in each of Tiers 3, 4, and 5, but I might put Jalen Hurts in the same tier as Tua Tagovailoa if it were up to me -- Heath has Hurts at the top of Tier 6. I'm still high on Tagovailoa despite a somewhat disappointing rookie season, especially if the Dolphins do the obvious thing and add a wide receiver with one of their early picks, but Hurts has the potential to be in that Jackson/Murray range based on what we saw in his limited time as a rookie. Yes, it was just three full games and parts of two others but he was on pace for nearly 3,700 passing yards and 20 touchdowns plus nearly 1,100 rushing and 12 more scores on the ground. In fact, he was actually a more productive runner than Murray in the same Oklahoma system in college. Assuming Carson Wentz gets traded -- hopefully "when" and not "if" -- Hurts is a top-10 QB for me in 2020 and a buy in Dynasty. |
| Here's how the top five tiers look heading into what could be a wild season of change at the QB position: |
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| Tier 1 |
| 1. Patrick Mahomes |
| Tier 2 |
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Kyler Murray
4. Josh Allen |
| Tier 3 |
5. Deshaun Watson
6. Dak Prescott
7. Justin Herbert |
| Tier 4 |
8. Russell Wilson
9. Joe Burrow |
| Tier 5 |
10. Tua Tagovailoa
11. Aaron Rodgers |
| See the rest of Heath's QB tiers here. |
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| Running back |
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| RB Rankings | RB Tiers |
| Christian McCaffrey is still the class of the position, and Saquon Barkley hasn't lost much value despite losing nearly all of his 2020 season due to a knee injury. Both will be among the top players drafted in Dynasty start-up or redraft leagues, and this might be an opportunity to buy Barkley, who should be a full-go for 2021, in what will be his age-24 season. I don't love the offense around him, but it wasn't enough to hold him back in 2018 or 2019, and I don't expect it to be much of an impediment. In each case, it's the ability to catch passes at a high level that makes them both stand out, though that's not to sell them short as runners either, obviously. |
| One player who Heath thinks might be worth moving on from this offseason is Alvin Kamara -- for whom 80-catch seasons have become old hat. At the very least, it's time to start thinking about moving on from Kamara, who faces questions about his quarterback that could really change his outlook for 2020 and beyond. Here's what Heath told reader Eric in his Dynasty mailbag column: |
| "As with any trade question, price becomes the determining factor, but in a vacuum, I would answer this with a lukewarm 'almost'. At the very least, it's time to earnestly listen to trade offers. |
| Kamara has been phenomenal in his four seasons in the NFL and 2020 was his best year yet with 1,688 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns in 15 games. An argument could be made that Kamara's usage has kept him fresher than the average 26-year old back, so you don't have to worry about wear and tear as much. I generally agree with the argument that receptions are less damaging to running backs than carries, but I mostly believe that age is more important than carries or receptions. |
| Kamara won't turn 26 until July, so there's a real chance you have four more months to spin his age as a positive. Just know that you're 12 months away from detractors penalizing you for his age in trade negotiations. Running back values are that fickle. There is one RB in my current top 24 Dynasty running back rankings who will be 27 or older when the 2021 season begins; Derrick Henry at No. 11. The highest-ranked 28-year-old? Melvin Gordon at No. 29. |
| Kamara's value could hold up better than Henry's or Gordon's but it's almost certainly going to deteriorate. And that's not even factoring in the likely loss of Drew Brees. |
| The main determinant for me as to whether I'm dealing Kamara: How likely it is that I think I'm winning a title in 2021? If I truly believe I have one of the two or three best teams, I'm going to try to win a championship, that's why we play the game. If I'm anywhere close to the middle of the pack (or below), I'm dealing Kamara to get younger, assuming I can find a trade partner." |
| Here's how he views the rest of the position heading into the offseason: |
| Tier 1 |
| 1. Christian McCaffrey |
| Tier 2 |
2. Saquon Barkley
3. Jonathan Taylor
4. Dalvin Cook
5. D'Andre Swift
6. Alvin Kamara
7. Josh Jacobs |
| Tier 3 |
8. James Robinson
9. Miles Sanders
10. Ezekiel Elliott
11. Derrick Henry
12. J.K. Dobbins |
| Tier 4 |
13. Antonio Gibson
14. Aaron Jones
15. Joe Mixon
16. Austin Ekeler
17. David Montgomery
18. Cam Akers
19. Nick Chubb
20. Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
| Tier 5 |
21. Ronald Jones
22. Myles Gaskin
23. AJ Dillon
24. Kareem Hunt |
| See the rest of Heath's RB tiers here. |
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