Trump’s statements about Putin have changed. Will his actions catch up?

Good morning. Nobody is more surprised than Donald Trump, but he is starting to think that Vladimir Putin is not a straight shooter. “I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him,” he wrote on Truth Social on Sunday. “He has gone absolutely CRAZY! I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!”

As ever with Trump, a part of you admires the chutzpah: the idea that Trump has long been troubled by Putin’s imperial ambitions is, of course, an absolutely warped version of the real history. But – even if Trump also criticised Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, grumbling that “everything out of his mouth causes problems” – there does seem to be a sense that the US president is becoming more seriously disillusioned with Putin as a partner, and seeking ways to avoid blame for the consequences.

The question is whether that’s a shift that might lead him to exact a cost – or just another random oscillation in his endlessly improvised foreign policy. It appears that Russia does not take his new threats of sanctions seriously: before dawn yesterday, it launched another massive aerial attack, with at least 355 drones and nine missiles aimed at targets across Ukraine. The weekend’s bombardment is among the largest of Ukrainian cities since the war began.

To make sense of this, it helps to be clear about the evolution of Trump’s views on Putin – even if he isn’t always himself. Today’s newsletter sorts through the chronology, and where it suggests he may go next. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: Where Trump’s shift from support to threats of sanctions might lead next

In the days before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, when thousands of Russian troops were waiting at the border, Donald Trump could not have been clearer: Vladimir Putin was displaying signs of “genius”. Recognising regions of eastern Ukraine as autonomous and saying, “We’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace” was “pretty savvy”.

In the same radio interview, Trump (pictured above with Putin) claimed to have known that the Russian leader “wanted Ukraine”, but seemed relaxed about the consequences: “I used to talk to him about it. I said, ‘You can’t do it. You’re not gonna do it.’ But I could see that he wanted it … I got along with him great. He liked me. I liked him. I mean, you know, he’s a tough cookie, got a lot of the great charm and a lot of pride. But the way he – and he loves his country, you know? He loves his country.”

That indulgent mood persisted for a long time. Now Trump is critical of Putin’s behaviour – but strikingly unwilling to join in sanctions in response. Here’s how his stance has shifted.

27 March, 2023 | “I will have it solved in 24 hours”

A promise that Trump would trot out repeatedly during the presidential campaign gets an early airing in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News: “There’s a very easy negotiation to take place. But I don’t want to tell you what it is because then I can’t use that negotiation,” he says.

15 September, 2023 | “I like that he said that”

In an interview with NBC, Trump explains that he appreciates the praise he had received from Putin, viewing it as a sign that he is on the right track to resolve the conflict. “I like that he said that,” he said. “Because that means what I’m saying is right. I would get him into a room. I’d get Zelenskyy into a room. Then I’d bring them together. And I’d have a deal worked out.”

10 September, 2024 | “Just get it done”

In his presidential debate with Kamala Harris, Trump twice refuses to say that he wants Ukraine to win the war. Asked if he believes “it’s in the US’ best interest for Ukraine to win this war”, he replies: “I think it’s the US best interest to get this war finished and just get it done.”

That fundamental stance – that extracting the US is worth any cost to European stability or Ukraine’s independence – has run through much of what he has said since, even as the context has shifted.

February 2025 | “You should have never started it”

Early in his presidency, Trump seems bent on creating a new geopolitical alignment between Washington and Moscow: he holds a direct call with Putin and rules out Nato membership for Ukraine on the same day; blames Kyiv for the war, saying “You should have never started it. You could have made a deal”; sides with Russia against the US’s traditional European allies in a UN vote condemning Russia’s invasion; and holds his infamous Oval Office meeting with Zelenskyy. Early in March, he suspends US military and intelligence aid to Ukraine and claims it is easier to work with Moscow than Kyiv.

March-April 2025 | “Vladimir, STOP!”

After talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, Zelenskyy says that Ukraine has accepted Trump’s proposal of a 30-day ceasefire. Putin claims to be willing to accept a 30-day pause but sets out conditions that would be impossible for Ukraine to accept, including the removal of the government; Trump now says that when he claimed during the campaign that he could make a deal in a day, he was being “a little bit sarcastic”.

Despite Russia’s intransigence, Trump puts the onus on Ukraine to end the war, saying that Kyiv has “no cards to play” and is guilty of “inflammatory statements” exacerbating the situation.

After Moscow launches the deadliest strike on Kyiv since last summer, Trump writes on Truth Social: “Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP!” And after a meeting with Zelenskyy before the funeral of Pope Francis, he questions whether Putin “wants to stop the war” or is “tapping him along” in negotiations. He threatens new sanctions against Russia if Moscow does not move towards a ceasefire. But notably, he has still not approved any new military aid to Ukraine since taking office.

May 2025 | “Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together”

With Trump periodically repeating his sanctions threat, the White House now appears to take a more sceptical view of Russia’s motives. JD Vance says the Russians are “asking for too much” to end the war and calls for “direct negotiation”. Trump leans on Zelenskyy to agree to direct talks with Russia in Turkey – but seemed unperturbed after Putin declines Zelenskyy’s offer of a direct meeting, saying: “Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together.”

Then, after a two-hour call with Putin, he seems delighted, and promises immediate negotiations between the two sides. His threats of sanctions has meanwhile disappeared, even as the United States’ traditional allies set out new measures; officials briefed on a subsequent conversation with the leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Finland say that he told them Putin believed he was winning the war, but that he had no intention of joining a new European sanctions package.

Recent days | “He has gone absolutely CRAZY!”

Now, alongside his dismay that Putin has responded to his apparent impunity against American retaliation by escalating his use of force, Trump has said he is “absolutely” considering more sanctions. Some military analysts believe that Moscow’s ability to continue with the war will soon begin to wane. Jack Watling, a senior fellow at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, told the Washington Post: “The Russians can continue fighting, but … the force will become more and more de-mechanized over time, and that does put a timeline on how long they can sustain the current way they operate.”

But in the meantime, Russia is stepping up its attacks, with almost 1,400 drones in the last week and increasing advances in the Donetsk region. New American aid to Ukraine is still not forthcoming, and Trump’s history of vacillation – and recent private comments - appear to have left Kyiv sceptical that he will make good on his sanctions threat.

“Only a sense of total impunity can allow Russia to carry out such strikes and continue increasing their scale,” Zelenskyy writes on X. “In doing this, Putin shows just how much he despises the world — the world that spends more effort on “dialogue” with him than on real pressure.” There is little doubt about which country he had in mind.

What else we’ve been reading

“What’s the story in Balamory?’ – the theme for Balamory is an earworm if ever there was one. This week’s How we made is a fun look at the “rock’n’roll fandom” of the Scottish CBeebies programme (pictured above), which is getting a reboot. Craille Maguire Gillies, newsletters team

Hidden cameras are easily available online – and reported cases of voyeurism are on the rise. Yet very few ever come to court. Anna Moore’s feature is a bleak catalogue of a crime that is “far more common than people would think”. Archie

Journalist Michelle Shephard has visited Guantánamo 28 times over 19 years. Earlier this year, shortly before Trump began sending migrant detainees there, she touched down again, admitting: “I’ve always struggled to make sense of the place.” Her long read for the Walrus is a fascinating dispatch from somewhere that “continues to be an embodiment of American exceptionalism, where the rules don’t apply and force trumps all”. Craille

So Labour is enacting a partial climbdown on the winter fuel payment – but sticking to its guns over disability benefits. That dichotomy, Frances Ryan writes, is evidence of a government that follows “an entire political and media ecosystem that decides which groups ‘deserve’ help and which ones don’t”. Archie

As a parent whose four-year-old has recently declared that asparagus tastes “yum”, I’m grateful for Rukmini Iyer’s genius and wholly do-able idea to pair it with two fridge staples in our house: puff pastry and eggs. Yum, indeed. Craille

Sport

Tennis | Emma Raducanu will face one of the toughest challenges in tennis after setting up a French Open second‑round match against the four-time champion Iga Swiatek. Raducanu demonstrated her mental toughness in a gritty 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 win against Wang Xinyu of China, the world No 43.

Cricket | England women took a 17-run win in their third T20 international on Monday to wrap up a series clean sweep against West Indies. Heather Knight bailed out her team with her first ever T20 international fifty on home soil.

Football | AFC Wimbledon secured promotion to League One after edging out Walsall 1-0 in the League Two playoff final. Myles Hippolyte’s goal at the end of the first half was the difference between the sides.

The front pages

“Horror as car ploughs into crowd at Liverpool FC victory parade,” is the splash on the Guardian today, a story that dominated headlines across the UK. “Elation then horror,” says the Mirror, “Liverpool glory turns to horror,” writes the Telegraph, while the Sun says: “Horror as car hits Kop fan.” “Horror at Liverpool parade,” has the Times, “Carnage at the parade,” says the Mail. “Horror at the victory parade,” is the splash over at the i, while the Metro runs a picture of the parade but leads with Trump’s comments: “‘Putin’s gone absolutely CRAZY!’”

Finally, the FT looks at the latest on tariffs with: “EU countries push for swift deal with Washington to head off heavy tariffs.”

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Last year, at 67, Brendan MacNeill (pictured above) woke up and decided to change careers. He had been a freelance photographer for more than four decades but found it harder and harder to carve out a living. “As I got older,” he says in this week’s A new start after 60, “the gap between me and the people who were commissioning work got bigger and bigger.” Technology made an already precarious market become harder to find a foothold in.

MacNeill, who lives near Edinburgh’s Braid Hills, set himself up as a dog walker, caring for up to eight canine charges (including his own). Four days a week, Brendan the Dog Walker is up the hills by 8.30. “I’m in a much more secure and positive frame of mind about what I’m doing,” he says. “You’re there. You’re in charge. The dogs are loving it. They’re looking to you for a bit of direction and leadership on the hill … I’m the boss out there.”

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

Quick crossword

Cryptic crossword

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