Bulls have the stage set for a rebound back into $6 technically, although bearish fundamentals continue to weigh on the market. To view this email as a web page,
click here | | Last week Pro Farmer issued new market advice for our members and we continue to share daily market insights to help spot additional profit and risk-management opportunities. As we look ahead, the recent bounce in corn futures has more legs than anticipated, with price closing above resistance and the recently quoted bear flag is negated. Bulls have the stage set for a rebound back into $6 technically, although bearish fundamentals continue to weigh on the market. While strength may continue in the interim, until demand improves of a summer crop/weather scare, more downside is likely in store. Scroll down for our 30-day corn and soybean outlooks.
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| | | 30 Day Outlooks:
Corn:
As price tumbled over the last few weeks, very little importers stepped up for the cheapened crop. China is shopping for corn in Brazil and now South Africa. U.S. corn remains at a premium and export sales have been disappointing enough that we do not believe the U.S. will hit the current USDA forecast for exports. While this may not be reflected in next week’s report, it will likely be adjusted down the line unless numbers improve sooner than later. Increasing ethanol demand and a recent large bounce in energy markets will help carry corn prices higher in the near term, but unless demand shows up, medium term weakness is likely.
Soybeans:
USDA will provide its initial updates U.S. production in its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. While changes are likely to be minimal, traders will surely to be tuned in to the government’s estimates. Of greater significance will be the June 30 Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports. Weather, the greatest contributing factor to acreage and yields, will be closely monitored until the reports are released. While mother nature has provided conditions for a record U.S. planting pace thus far, World Weather Inc. notes planting delays are of concern in the northeastern Plains and upper Midwest, where fieldwork has been limited by cool, moist conditions this spring. The forecaster also notes River flooding will continue along the upper half of the Mississippi and Red River Basin of the north, with the process continuing through much of this month.
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