Does E-Commerce Surge Help Explain Friday's Sell-Off?

Does E-Commerce Surge Help Explain Friday's Sell-Off? The day began with a puzzler: bonds sold off abruptly in response to economic data that would normally cause bonds to rally. With that, the game was afoot. Market analysts began guessing at reasons and looking under rocks that are seldom disturbed. The first such rock was the "core" retail sales number which came in right on target. But the even more obscure rock of "non-store sales" provided an even clearer notion of a consumer who wasn't too scared by the banking drama in March. Either way, the market interpreted the data as nowhere near weak enough to force the issue of a Fed pivot. Econ Data / EventsRetail Sales-1.0 vs -0.4 f'cast, -0.2 prev Retail Sales ex Autos/Gas/Building/Food-0.3 vs -0.3 f'cast, +0.5 prev Import Prices -0.6 vs -0.1 f'cast, -0.2 prev Industrial Production0.4 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev Consumer Sentiment63.5 vs 62.0 f'cast 62.0 prev 1yr inflation expectations4.6 vs 3.6 prev 5yr inflation expectations2.9 vs 2.9 prev Market Movement Recap09:08 AM Bonds paradoxically weaker after Retail Sales data. 10yr up 5.6 bps at 3.505. MBS down nearly 3/8ths of a point. 12:33 PM Fairly flat since the initial sell-off. Treasuries drifting a bit weaker than MBS. 10yr up 7.5bps at 3.524. MBS down almost 3/8ths. 02:55 PM No major changes from the last update. Everything happened in the first hour of the day. Flat since then.

April 14, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Does E-Commerce Surge Help Explain Friday's Sell-Off? Does E-Commerce Surge Help Explain Friday's Sell-Off? The day began with a puzzler: bonds sold off abruptly in response to economic data that would normally cause bonds to rally. With that, the game was... (read more) Rob Chrisman Broker Products; Construction Warehouse, Appraisal, Verification, Closing Disclosure Tools; Bank Tremors Done? Who is Harrison Ruffin Tyler? Answer: He is the last living grandchild of former U.S. president John Tyler, born in 1790. (Tyler was President from 1841-1845.) Between him, and his father Lyon, and John, they’ve been alive for nearly the entire span ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.50% +0.11% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% +0.11 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.93% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.10% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.00% +0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.75% +0.15 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.09% +0.09 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 4/14 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.93% +0.06% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.27% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.54% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/13 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.30% -0.10 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.78% -0.19 0.57 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.26% -0.10 0.42 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/12 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.38 -0.39 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 99.38 -0.39 UMBS 5.5 100.69 -0.33 GNMA 5.0 99.69 -0.31 GNMA 5.5 100.67 -0.25 Pricing as of: 4/14 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.5166 +0.0676 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.103 +0.135 5 YR Treasury 3.609 +0.109 7 YR Treasury 3.561 +0.086 10 YR Treasury 3.517 +0.068 30 YR Treasury 3.739 +0.053 Pricing as of: 4/14 5:31PM EST Latest Video Mortgage rate tipping point: Most buyers say 5.5% or lower Preliminary consumer sentiment numbers come in ahead of expectations Commercial real estate story will play out over long time period, says Well... Fed should let the economy equilibrate, says former Fed nominee Judy Shelto... Around the Web CNBC Today's homebuyers have their mortgage rate tipping point, and it's artificially low cfpb CFPB Announces Revised Methodology for Determining Average Prime Offer Rates Eye on Housing Steep Year-over-Year Decline for Single-Family Permits in February 2023 Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March; 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Reuters JPMorgan profit surges 52% on robust consumer business CNBC Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says recent reports show inflation is moving in the right direction Calculated Risk Blog Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2% CNBC 'Manufactured' debt ceiling crisis would damage U.S. economic rebound, key Treasury official says CNBC ECB must 'carry on and act consistently' with interest rate hikes, policymaker says FXStreet Fed’s Goolsbee: Mild recession is definitely on the table as a possibility cnbc Wells Fargo shares rise after bank’s first quarter profit and revenue top the Street Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in March SA Citigroup Q1 earnings top consensus, helped by fixed-income trading

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