Does America Have Friends with Benefits?

Israel’s defense minister Benny Gantz recently confirmed that Israel is working on stitching together a military alliance with several Arab states. Such a partnership would have been unthinkable just three years ago. But amid growing concerns over a military threat from Iran, the new plan for a Middle East Air Defense Alliance is expected to stretch from Morocco in North Africa all the way to the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.). It builds on the Abraham accords in 2020, in which the Trump government helped Israel establish formal relations with the UAE and Bahrain. Morocco then also recognized Israel. In May, the UAE and Israel also strengthened their economic ties, signing a free trade agreement. And on Friday, Saudi Arabia for the first time agreed to open its airspace to Israeli civilian aircraft.

That announcement from Riyadh came during a trip to the Middle East by U.S. President Joe Biden, who visited Israel, the West Bank and then Saudi Arabia. His administration has faced criticism for not challenging Israel’s growing settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, though — unlike Trump — he has reaffirmed America’s commitment to the two-state solution. But a key goal of his trip is to persuade the Gulf states to increase oil production. The trip has provoked strong backlash because of the human rights record of Saudi Arabia and its Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, of which Biden himself has been deeply critical. According to Kenneth Roth of Human Rights Watch: “Biden seems to have decided that — to lower fuel prices and strengthen the alliance against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — he must stop keeping the crown prince at arm’s length.”

In the new diplomatic coalition which the Biden administration seeks to form with Israel and the UAE, there has emerged a fourth party — India. Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi joined Biden and the leaders of Israel and the UAE in the first summit — held virtually — of a group bearing the kitschy acronym I2U2. For the U.S. and India, the four-nation partnership is important as a counterweight to China’s mounting influence in the Middle East. Though many have regarded Modi as unsympathetic to Muslims within India, he has cultivated strategic ties with the UAE. In February, the countries signed a free trade agreement.

For all their efforts, Washington and New Delhi won’t find it easy to challenge Beijing in the Middle East, a region that now counts China as its biggest trading partner. China purchases around half of its crude oil from Arab states, and the largest of its oil ties is currently with Saudi Arabia. China has also been investing heavily in infrastructure in the region. According to former U.K. minister and diplomat Rory Stewart, China has put $327 billion into its Belt and Road Initiative — a network of highways, ports and rail lines connecting Asia to Europe — in the Middle East. Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is hoping to return to power in elections later this year, had described his country’s relationship with China as “ a marriage made in heaven” in 2017.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is waging an influence campaign of his own. Along with Iran, Putin is trying to resurrect a long-dormant plan for a transit corridor that will connect Moscow to Mumbai in India. Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi hosted Putin in Tehran on Tuesday. But the Kremlin isn’t relying on just one friend in the Middle East. Iran's rival, Saudi Arabia, is also keen to maintain an oil alliance with Russia. Want evidence? Saudi Arabia, which is itself the world’s largest exporter of oil, doubled its imports of cheap Russian fuel oil in the second quarter of 2022 to fuel its power stations. If Russian oil helps keep Saudi homes cool this summer, it will also keep their relations warm.

The Kremlin is adopting more direct ways of extending its influence globally too. The Wagner Group, a private mercenary army believed to have close ties to Putin, is becoming involved in war-torn countries around the world. Wagner operatives are believed to have fought in the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Sudan, Syria and Ukraine. Wagner is seemingly paid either with cash or lucrative mining concessions for precious minerals like gold, diamonds and uranium. In 2017, CAR welcomed Wagner operatives into the country after President Faustin-Archange Touadéra signed security agreements with the Russian government.

Until three years ago, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati had diplomatic ties with Taiwan instead of China. Now, they have not only switched allegiances but are also increasingly emerging as central venues in Beijing's assertive Pacific strategy. China signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands earlier this year that the U.S. and Australia fear might be the first step toward a Chinese military base on the islands. Local opposition politicians, however, are more worried that the security agreement is a direct threat to democracy and dissent. Meanwhile, Kiribati withdrew from the Pacific Islands Forum, the region’s top body, earlier this month — a move that many believe weakens the region’s ability to resist pressure from Beijing.

If easy cash is China’s great diplomatic weapon, Biden has signaled a willingness to counter with his own economic alternative: The U.S. recently introduced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Unveiled in Tokyo in May, the pact includes 13 members: the U.S., India, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Brunei. The framework is Washington’s answer to the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Indo-Pacific’s biggest free trade agreement. But unlike the RCEP, the IPEF at the moment is merely a statement of intent, with no free trade deal yet to back it up, leading many analysts to question its effectiveness.

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In 2017, then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel came back from meeting then-U.S. President Donald Trump and announced that the U.S. was no longer a reliable partner. In December 2019, French President Emanuel Macron warned of what he called a NATO “brain death.” Fast forward to now, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and NATO’s solidarity looks healthier than ever, with two former NATO skeptics, Sweden and Finland, knocking on the door to gain entry. The recent NATO summit in Madrid saw an agreement to enlarge the alliance’s rapid response force from 40,000 troops to over 300,000.

As the U.K. was negotiating its way out of the European Union, many predicted a flood of other Brexit-like attempts, with Poland (Polexit), Denmark (Dexit) and Italy (Italexit) seen as potential candidates. But a newfound unity has emerged from the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. In a recent referendum, 67% of Danes favored ending their country’s E.U. defense opt-out. This is the largest pro-E.U. vote in Denmark’s history. And a survey published last month by the Pew Research Center showed that 89% of Poles view the E.U. favorably — the highest percentage since Pew started asking this question in 2007.

How would you define President Biden’s policy towards the Middle East? Is it working?

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