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March 24, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Economic Roundup: Little to Like in U.S. Durable Goods
We now know equipment spending probably fell in the first quarter, putting a dent in Q1 GDP.

NAIRU Is Economists' Loch Ness Monster
Economists' track record in spotting the bottom in the unemployment rate isn't great.

Durable Goods Orders Show U.S. Manufacturing's Struggles
Equipment spending could drop this quarter, and we lowered our estimate of Q1 GDP growth.

Economic Briefing: Singapore’s Manufacturers Lay an Egg
Comments from Federal Reserve board members push Asian currencies down against the greenback.

View More Analysis


Insight on Critical Issues

Asia-Pacific Economic Preview: 28 March-1 April
Japan faces tough conditions at home and abroad.

Europe Economic Preview: 28 March-1 April
Markets will look for signs of deflation pressures in euro zone CPI data.

Macro Roundup: China's Housing Challenge
Recovery in big cities is not spreading to smaller cities.

France Outlook: Labour Market Revolution
A new labour code would boost employment, but it faces resistance.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagEuro ZoneConference Board Leading Indicators
February106.5
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the euro zone was 106.5 in February, down 0.2 of a point ...
 
FlagFranceBusiness Survey
March101.0
French manufacturers’ sentiment slid to 101 in March from 103 in the previous month. The number was below ...
 
FlagFranceJob Seekers
February3.59 mil
The number of unemployed people actively seeking work exploded by 38,900 to 3.59 million in February. ...
 
FlagItalyIndustrial New Orders
January0.7%
Italy's new industrial orders rose 0.7% m/m in January, in line with improving industrial output. Although ...
 
FlagItalyRetail Sales
January0%
Italy’s retail sales remained unchanged in January, following a 0.1% m/m decline in the previous month. ...
 
FlagRussian FederationBusiness Confidence
March-5.0
Manufacturing business confidence in Russia stayed in negative territory in March at -5, unchanged from ...
 
FlagSingaporeIndustrial Production
February-4.7%
Continued weakness in Singapore’s industrial production confirms our view that it will experience below-trend ...
 
FlagUnited KingdomRetail Sales
February3.8%
U.K. retail sales rose 3.8% y/y in February, down from a 5.2% increase in the previous month. Moody’s ...
 
FlagUnited StatesDurable Goods (Advance)
February-2.8%
New orders for durable goods fell 2.8% in February and were weak across the board. Also, the top-line ...
 
FlagUnited StatesSt. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
03/18/2016-0.770
Financial market conditions eased last week as oil and equity markets rebounded. The St. Louis Fed Financial ...
 
FlagUnited StatesKansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
March-6
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing conditions in the district contracted ...
 
FlagUnited StatesState Personal Income
2015Q40.8%
State personal income gains slowed during the fourth quarter, consistent with broader weakness in the ...
 
FlagUnited StatesNatural Gas Storage Report
03/18/201615 bil cubic feet
Natural gas storage is beginning to rise earlier in the year than is typical. Working gas in underground ...
 
FlagUnited StatesJobless Claims
03/19/2016265,000
Job growth is showing little sign of slowing. Though initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.5

Global business sentiment is stable, and consistent with an economy growing at its potential. This comes after several months of weakening confidence. The softer sentiment coincided with the turmoil in financial markets late last year and early this. Assessments of present conditions have been hit especially hard, while encouragingly, expectations regarding conditions later this year have held up much better. South American and, to a lesser degree, Asian companies are the most worried. Sentiment in these regions is consistent with below-potential growth. North American and European businesses are more upbeat, but sentiment has weakened in these regions as well.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

U.S. Regional Outlook: The Expansion Continues
The outlook is upbeat, for most of the country.

U.S. Macro Outlook: Myth Busting
The electorate seems unconvinced, but solid fundamentals are driving the economy.

U.S. Chartbook: Resilience is Tested
The expansion is still in mid-cycle, but recent financial market tightness has tempered sentiment.

Candidate Report Card: The Democrats
Higher taxes, higher complexity, lower inequality.

Economic Roundup: Is the Fed in Denial?
Fed was surprisingly dovish, and new rate path seems inconsistent with the job market, inflation.



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Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - San Francisco CA
April 05, 2016


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