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March 14, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Economic Roundup: China's Struggles Continue
Reports on retail sales and industrial production disappoint.

A Tentative Sign U.S. Inflation Expectations Are Edging Higher
This would be good news for the Fed and strengthen the case for a June rate hike.

Anti-Immigration Party Gains Support in Germany
Sunday's elections show dissatisfaction with Merkel, but markets showed little worry.

Economic Briefing: New Data Show Continued Slide in China’s Growth
Asian equity markets rally on Monday.

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Insight on Critical Issues

U.S. Chartbook: Resilience is Tested
The expansion is still in mid-cycle, but recent financial market tightness has tempered sentiment.

Commodity Outlook: Oil Prices Heading Higher
The dollar is losing ground, economic fears are subsiding, and U.S. production is easing.

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 11, 2016
Mounting evidence says that recession fears are premature.

Macro Roundup: Some Upside in China's Trade
Stronger import volumes suggest demand is not as weak as first thought.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagCanadaBrookfield RPS House Price Index
February5.3%
Despite low commodity prices and slower GDP growth, Canadian house prices are on solid ground. House ...
 
FlagCanadaNew Motor Vehicle Sales
January9.2%
The number of new vehicles sold in January increased 9.2% from a year earlier, more than reversing a ...
 
FlagColombiaIndustrial Production
January8.2%
Manufacturing output increased 8.2% y/y in January after 3.6% in the previous month. Manufacturing output ...
 
FlagEuro ZoneIndustrial Production
January2.1%
Euro zone industrial production beat all expectations and rose 2.1% on a monthly basis in January, following ...
 
FlagIndiaWholesale Price Index
February-0.9%
India's wholesale price deflation is slowing thanks to a rise in food prices from the poor monsoon season ...
 
FlagUnited StatesFinancial Obligations Ratio
2015Q415.38%
Household financial burdens remain low but are beginning to inch higher. The financial obligations ratio ...
 
FlagUruguayIndustrial Production
January0.5%
Industrial production rose in January for the first time in five months, notching a 0.5% gain on a year-ago ...
 
FlagWorldMoody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
03/11/201630.9
Business sentiment has firmed in recent weeks in tandem with the rally in global financial markets. The ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.9

Business sentiment has firmed in recent weeks in tandem with the rally in global financial markets. The turmoil in markets late last year and early this year had noticeably weakened confidence, hitting assessments of present conditions especially hard. But recent responses to all of the survey questions have taken on a brighter hue. Expectations regarding the outlook into this summer remain notably strong, with over half of respondents saying conditions will improve by then. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

Global Outlook: Calling All Hands
Collective action is needed to protect the recovery.

U.S. Macro Outlook: Myth Busting
The electorate seems unconvinced, but solid fundamentals are driving the economy.

U.S. Chartbook: Silencing the Critics
Job growth and vehicle sales in February should allay concerns about the economy.

Economic Roundup: Boom Goes the U.S. Labor Market
Job growth exceeds expectations and slack is quickly vanishing.

Forecasters' Mailbag: Inflation, 'Bartender Recovery,' Oil Inventories
Have a question on the economy? Send it along.



About Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation, helps capital markets and credit risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. Through its team of economists, Moody’s Analytics is a leading independent provider of research, credit risk management, modeling, data, and forecasts at the global, national and subnational levels.

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UPCOMING EVENTS
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