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April 05, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Euro Zone Falls Short of Expectations
March PMIs disappointed, and France again was the culprit.

Trade Delivers Latest Blow to U.S. First Quarter
GDP growth, now tracking 0.2% at an annual rate, is not an accurate reflection of the economy.

Dim Outlook for Japan’s Pension Fund
Unfavourable stock and currency movements will crimp consumption further.

Economic Briefing: RBI Bats in a Rate Cut
Most Asian equity markets declined sharply on Tuesday.

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Insight on Critical Issues

U.S. Chartbook: March Employment Report Unlikely to Move Fed
More Americans are confident about job prospects, but the central bank watches shadow slack.

Investors Go Back to the Bank
U.S. financial services spending is returning to normal.

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 1, 2016
The job market continues to run hot, even as Q1 GDP heads south.

LatAm External Gap Quickly Narrowing
Flexible foreign exchange systems have allowed rebalancing.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagCanadaInternational Merchandise Trade
February-C$ 1.91 bil
Plummeting exports in January led to a significant increase in Canada's trade deficit. Canada's international ...
 
FlagChileMonthly Economic Activity Indicator
February2.8%
Economic activity reported recovery in February, although still at rates below potential. Thus, the ...
 
FlagEuro ZoneRetail Trade
February0.2%
Retail sales volume rose 0.2% m/m in February after adding 0.3% in the previous month. The number was ...
 
FlagGermanyManufacturing Turnover and Orders Received
February-1.2%
German manufacturing orders fell 1.2% m/m in February, following a revised 0.5% increase. In year-ago ...
 
FlagGermanyVehicle Registration
March-0.9%
New-vehicle registrations in Germany fell 0.9% y/y in March following a 12.3% increase in the previous ...
 
FlagIndiaMonetary Policy
April6.5%
The Reserve Bank of India extended its accommodative monetary policy cycle by cutting rates at the April ...
 
FlagRussiaConsumer Price Index
March0.5%
Aggregate consumer price inflation in Russia was 0.5% in March, down from the previous month. Food prices ...
 
FlagUnited StatesJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
February3.7% openings rate
The February JOLTS report complements the solid March payroll employment report and provides further ...
 
FlagUnited StatesISM Nonmanufacturing Index
March54.5
The nonmanufacturing segment of the U.S. economy could be emerging from its recent lull. The ISM nonmanufacturing ...
 
FlagUnited StatesInternational Trade (FT900)
February-$47.1 bil
Weak foreign demand and a strong U.S. dollar are weighing on U.S. trade. The foreign trade deficit widened ...
 
FlagUnited StatesCoreLogic Home Price Index
February6.8%
The CoreLogic Home Price Index increased 6.8% on a year-over-year basis in February. Monthly growth was ...
 
FlagUruguayConsumer Price Index
March10.6%
Consumer prices continued their upward climb in March and are rising at the fastest pace in more than ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 31.2

Global business confidence continues to firm after swooning earlier in the year due to the turmoil in global financial markets. Responses to all nine survey questions have taken on a brighter hue in recent weeks. Most encouraging is a rebound in the percentage of respondents saying that business conditions are improving. In a broader historical context, business sentiment is good, and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

The Oil Rebalancing Act
U.S. oil production holds the key for oil prices.

U.S. Chartbook: Profit Pain
The fourth quarter wasn't kind to corporate profits but the economic costs should be small, for now.

U.S. Credit Outlook: A Cautionary Tale
Both lenders and consumers have been wary to extend and demand credit.

Revisiting Residual Seasonality in U.S. GDP
The issue hasn't gone away; this quarter is likely being affected.

View of Q1 U.S. GDP Continues to Sour
Vehicle sales and factory orders lower our growth estimate to 0.6% at an annual rate.



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Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Orange County CA
April 06, 2016


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