HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT

Plans on hold? On Sunday, the Trump administration declared that it would detail a new plan to kick-start negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority at a conference in Bahrain next month. It disclosed that the plan would include billions of dollars’ worth of economic and developmental aid to the Palestinian territories, where per capita income is less than a tenth of Israel’s $40,000. But while a Netanyahu comfortably ensconced in power could have demonstrated political flexibility for potential peace talks, a fresh election campaign is expected to push him toward more extreme positions. He threatened, for example, to annex occupied parts of the Palestinian territories while campaigning in the run-up to April’s elections. That would make any negotiation a nonstarter. The new government in Israel is unlikely to take shape before October, when Trump would be in full-fledged campaign mode for his own reelection in 2020, with less authority to commit to a peace deal that the next U.S. administration might need to see through.

Corruption clouds grow darker. As if unprecedented political turmoil isn’t enough, Netanyahu also faces another battle that could define his legacy: potential indictment on an array of corruption charges. Alleged to have taken gifts from tycoons and doled out patronage in exchange for favorable press coverage, Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing and blamed the accusations on a “witch hunt.” Still, upon the recommendation of Israel’s attorney general, he’ll face a pre-indictment hearing in mid-October — meaning the prospect of criminal charges will be looming over his campaign for a second time in the span of six months. The absence of a ruling majority in the Knesset until then also means Netanyahu will likely be unable to push through a proposed law critics say is aimed at shielding him from prosecution before the hearing — even if he returns to power in September. The effort has sparked discontent among liberal-minded Israelis, thousands of whom staged a protest in Tel Aviv last weekend against any immunity law.

Religion vs. power. The coalition talks collapsed after Lieberman insisted that the government accept a law he has proposed that would make military conscription mandatory for ultra-Orthodox Haredi Jews. Likud had suggested tweaks to Lieberman’s bill and a road map toward mandatory conscription after the formation of the government. Netanyahu, known for his political survival instincts — he’ll be Israel’s longest-serving PM by September — is expected to use Lieberman’s intransigence to portray himself as a defender of conservative voters. The opposition will point to his willingness to plunge Israel into fresh elections — instead of allowing an alternative government to form — as evidence of political greed. Whichever narrative voters buy could determine whether 69-year-old Netanyahu’s political career gets yet another lease on life, or ends in ignominy.

WHAT TO READ

Netanyahu Just Suffered One of the Biggest Losses of His Political Career by Anshel Pfeffer in Haaretz
“We saw an ashen-faced Bibi, ranting about the injustice done to him and the nation by Avigdor Lieberman. It was the Netanyahu we never see in public and only hear about in whispers. Unprepared and unscripted.”

How New Elections Could Affect the Peace Plan by Omri Nahmias in The Jerusalem Post
“[W]e find ourselves today in an awkward situation: the time and place for rolling out the economic plan has been carefully chosen and set, and yet it might still occur during an election in Israel, after all.”

WHAT TO WATCH