Despite the criminal convictions and standard controversy surrounding Donald Trump, extensive polling shows the presidential race is still close – with many indicating Trump has the edge. So there is no doubt that both sides are taking this upcoming debate very seriously: Joe Biden has reportedly run away to the mountains with a close circle of advisers to tighten his argument and prepare retorts to the inevitable personal smears, while Trump is likely workshopping said insults and other attack lines with his vice-presidential hopefuls. Trump’s campaign so far has been focused on revenge, retribution and apocalyptic narratives about what will happen if Biden is re-elected. A rally in Wisconsin perhaps gives some insight into where he plans to take the debate: “We’re going to end up in world war three with this person. He’s the worst president ever.” Biden’s team are hoping to remind the public of the kind of demagogic figure Trump has been and is vowing to be again if he returns to office – banking on the notion that the more the American public see of Trump the less they like him. The president will be hoping that this debate will be the turning point in the race, a reminder to the country of why Trumpism was rejected four years ago. The age factor It’s important to remember that while all the attention seems to be on Biden, most Americans think both candidates are too old to serve second terms according to an Ipsos poll. When Biden was sworn in he became the oldest president in history, although at 77 Trump is hot on his heels. Together the pair make the oldest presidential matchup ever, so the health and competence of both nominees will be a heated topic. The Trump campaign told a crowd earlier this year: “I don’t think [Biden] knows he’s alive.” Meanwhile, the current president has not been above age-related digs, frequently calling Trump “confused”, accusing the former president of “unhinged ramblings” and seizing on every opportunity to highlight Trump’s mix-ups. A verbal slip here – something both candidates have been prone to in recent months – could prove fatal to their electoral hopes. Immigration When Biden ran for office in 2020, reversing Trump’s punitive and haphazard immigration policy was a central plank of his campaign. But as this election draws closer he has changed his tune, taking a more restrictive stance after signing an executive order that temporarily closed the southern border to asylum seekers to shore up support from voters who have consistently shown disapproval of how he has handled the situation there. The move received significant pushback from the left so, to appease his progressive critics, Biden has since announced another policy granting some undocumented migrants a path to citizenship if they have an American spouse, giving 550,000 people protection from deportation. He has also been keen to denounce the Republican-controlled House of Representatives for blocking long-term immigration reform, at Trump’s behest. Biden’s camp is hoping that this will lure Trump into a trap: discussing one of his most contentious policies, family separation at the border. Biden will probably try to make himself a firm but fair figure on immigration, while portraying Trump’s past and future agendas as extreme and cruel. Since he entered politics in 2016, Trump has always centred immigration. A second Trump term will see the resurrection of some of his old favourites, like the “Remain in Mexico” policy which forces non-Mexican asylum seekers to stay in Mexico and restarting construction of the border wall between the two countries. He also has vowed to launch the biggest “domestic deportation operation” ever and has said that he will seek to limit legal migration in to the US too. Trump will wield the immigration debate like a hammer against Biden, likely pointing to the record-breaking number of border crossings as a reason not to trust Biden with immigration. At a rally earlier this month, Trump summarised his position like this: “Joe Biden wants an invasion. I want a deportation”. Abortion In April the former president bragged about his central role in overturning the constitutional right to abortion: “we broke Roe v Wade” he told the press. But Trump’s team has since come to realise that he is walking a fine line when it comes to reproductive rights. Republican efforts to restrict or completely ban abortion have backfired significantly in the polls, energising voters to turn out and vote Democrat. Trump has to balance the support of his evangelical and anti-abortion base with the general public who broadly support abortion access. The Democratic party believe abortion is their magic bullet. Biden will be reminding everyone on Thursday that the rollback of reproductive rights is all Trump’s fault. The party has united around a message of protecting what is left of abortion access and strengthening support on other reproductive health measures like contraception. Not only do they believe it is the most effective stick to beat Trump with and galvanise their base further, it also holds the chance of bringing back voters who are disaffected with Biden’s other policies. Economy American voters aren’t giving the president any credit for the robust economic recovery that Biden claims to have delivered for them. It turns out quarterly GDP figures are not enough to make the public feel good, with Americans pointing to unaffordable rents, mortgages and goods. Biden will probably come out with all of the relevant indicators to try to convince the public, as he has been for the last year, that “America has the best economy in the world” – while attempting to draw attention to his legislative success such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided much needed investment in the country’s infrastructure. Trump however has been painting a very different picture – one of a country that “is collapsing into a cesspool of ruin, whose supply chain is broken, whose stores are not stocked, whose deliveries are not coming” – while claiming the US was booming during his last term in office. The candidates will also touch on a host of other issues including foreign policy, healthcare, Trump’s trials, education and crime. There will be zingers, sneering personal attacks and embarrassing blunders, but neither side is underestimating the challenge of convincing the American public to vote for one of the two most unpopular presidential candidates in decades. |