Daily Newsletter: Supply Chain and Inflation Concerns Ding Builder Confidence Index

Builder confidence stumbled a bit this month, breaking a four-month streak that had pushed moved the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) 8 points higher. The index, which quantifies builder confidence in the market for newly constructed homes, dipped 1 point in January to 83. Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist said higher materials costs and lack of availability are adding weeks to the construction time of a typical single-family home and the aggregate cost of residential construction materials has increased almost 19 percent in the last month. Policymakers need to take action to fix supply chains and obtaining a new softwood lumber agreement with Canada and reducing tariffs would be an excellent place to start, he said. The most pressing issue for the housing sector remains a lack of inventory according to the economist. While 2021 single-family starts are expected to end the year about 25 percent higher than the pre-Covid 2019 level, higher interest rates in the coming year will put a damper on housing affordability. Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

January 18, 2022 Housing News Supply Chain and Inflation Concerns Ding Builder Confidence Index Builder confidence stumbled a bit this month, breaking a four-month streak that had pushed moved the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) 8 points higher. The index, which quantifies builder confidence... (read more) Housing News November Origination Stats a Time Capsule For Refi Demand The refinance share of originations in November remained at 53 percent for the third month even though the average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased 14 basis points over that period. ICE Mortgage Technology’s Origination Insi... (read more) Rob Chrisman Vendor Updates and Offerings; LLPA Perspective; Milo's Crypto-mortgage While rates continue higher, from South Carolina comes, “I just got 30 minutes of cardio trying to pick up an ice cube off the kitchen floor.” Plenty of folks on the East Coast are dealing with other kinds of ice (we all know how 2 inches of snow gri... (read more) Mortgage Rates Remember Mortgage Rates in the 2's? They're Closer to 4% Now One of the very few welcome byproducts of the pandemic was the pervasive availability of new all-time low mortgage rates. Depending on when you checked in, you were highly likely to see top tier 30yr fixed rates in the 2% range. Even after the first major attempt at lift-off in early 2021, rates were still best described as being in the "mid-... (read more) 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 3.70% +0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 3.70% +0.05 0.40 15 Yr. Fixed 2.95% +0.05 0.40 30 Yr. FHA 3.38% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 3.33% +0.08 0.00 5/1 ARM 3.75% +0.11 0.50 Updates Daily - Last Update: 1/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 2.95% +0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 3.45% +0.23 0.70 15 Yr. Fixed 2.62% +0.19 0.70 5/1 Yr. ARM 2.57% +0.16 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/13 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 3.52% +0.19 0.45 15 Yr. Fixed 2.73% +0.13 0.35 30 Yr. Jumbo 3.42% +0.11 0.36 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/12 MBS / Treasuries MBS Live Recap: Snowball Selling Continues. Why? (updated video) Snowball Selling Continues. Why? In not so many words, most of the rate drama seen during the past 3 weeks is a result of a fairly important policy pivot from the Fed. There were no new Fed communications today, but some market participants were still responding to a slew of Fed speakers from Friday. Thos... (read more) UMBS 30YR 3.0 101.58 -0.64 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 3.0 101.58 -0.64 UMBS 3.5 104.06 -0.53 GNMA 3.0 101.83 -0.53 GNMA 3.5 102.98 -0.50 Pricing as of: 1/18 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 1.8771 +0.0841 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 1.049 +0.080 5 YR Treasury 1.661 +0.102 7 YR Treasury 1.834 +0.100 10 YR Treasury 1.877 +0.084 30 YR Treasury 2.195 +0.068 Pricing as of: 1/18 5:21PM EST Latest Video BlackRock CEO: We will see higher inflation, more aggressive Fed over next ... Investors reset Fed expectations, forecast tighter policy this year Builder confidence down 1 point, first drop in four months Retail sales fall 1.9% in December, far higher than estimates Around the Web CNBC Homebuilder confidence drops for the first time in four months, as inflation hits materials Redfin 3 in 5 Home Offers Faced Bidding Wars in December, Even Amid Holiday Slowdown Calculated Risk Blog 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December Reuters Wall St tumbles as yield spike hits tech, banks slump after Goldman miss CNBC U.S. companies are expecting to pay a 3.4% raise to workers in 2022 Reuters Oil prices hit seven-year highs as tight supply bites CNBC European stocks retreat, with Fed policy and rising bond yields in focus; Stoxx 600 down 1% nar.realtor More Consumers Are Optimistic About Their Income Outlook CNBC New York's eviction ban expires Saturday. What renters need to know Calculated Risk Blog Q4 GDP Forecasts: Around 6% CNBC Retail sales dropped 1.9% in December as higher prices caused consumers to curb spending Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Decreased 0.1 Percent in December Calculated Risk Blog MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 1.41% in December 2021"

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