The National Association of Realtors released January's Pending Home Sales report this morning, which measures signed purchase contracts as opposed to finalized sales. As such, it's considered to be an advance indicator of Existing Home Sales, and that's generally proven to be the case over time. It also means the pending sales data can be a bit more volatile. In today's data, that volatility expressed itself in the form of the biggest month-over-month decline in 11 months. The index dropped by 5.7% to a level of 109.5. December's level was revised slightly lower from 117.7 to 116.1. Despite the losses, if we look beyond the post-covid sales surge, current levels are still quite strong in the context of the past 15 years. That's all well and good for the month of January, but where do we go from here? First off, the uniqueness of the present housing and mortgage market situations is a required disclaimer at the top of any discussion of the sales outlook. We've often pointed out that, although rising rates do tend to put downward pressure on sales, they don't singlehandedly derail a strong real estate market. Unfortunately , rising rates are joined by a still-appalling inventory environment as well as an ongoing price surge that continues to create affordability issues across the country. NAR's chief economist shared the following comments in today's release:
Housing News | Realtors Report Big Decline in Contract Signings | The National Association of Realtors released January's Pending Home Sales report this morning, which measures signed purchase contracts as opposed to finalized sales. As such, it's considered to be an advance indicator of Existing Home Sales... (read more) |
| Housing News | Freddie Mac’s January Business Remained Refinance Heavy | Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 11.2 percent in January compared to a 13.1 percent gain in December. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $3.276 trillion compared to ... (read more) |
| | Mortgage Rates Drop Noticeably as Global Drama Unfolds | Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds are often the target of safe haven buying in times of geopolitical distress. The situation in Ukraine certainly qualifies and the bonds have been improving ever since. For mortgages, it's not quite as simple because mortgage-specific bonds don't tend to benefit as much from safe haven demand as something... (read more) |
| | 30 Yr. Fixed Rate | 4.18% +0.01% |
| Rate | Change | Points |
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Mortgage News Daily | 30 Yr. Fixed | 4.18% | +0.01 | 0.40 | 15 Yr. Fixed | 3.44% | +0.02 | 0.40 | 30 Yr. FHA | 3.75% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 30 Yr. Jumbo | 3.65% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5/1 ARM | 3.72% | +0.01 | 0.50 | Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/25 | |
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15 Yr. Fixed Rate | 3.44% +0.02% |
| Rate | Change | Points |
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Freddie Mac | 30 Yr. Fixed | 3.89% | -0.03 | 0.80 | 15 Yr. Fixed | 3.14% | -0.01 | 0.70 | 5/1 Yr. ARM | 2.98% | 0.00 | 0.30 | Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/24 | Rate | Change | Points |
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Mortgage Bankers Assoc. | 30 Yr. Fixed | 4.06% | +0.01 | 0.48 | 15 Yr. Fixed | 3.42% | +0.05 | 0.45 | 30 Yr. Jumbo | 3.84% | +0.03 | 0.45 | Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/23 | |
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| UMBS 30YR 3.0 | 101.03 +0.59 |
| Price / Yield | Change |
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MBS | UMBS 3.0 | 101.03 | +0.59 | UMBS 3.5 | 102.97 | +0.42 | GNMA 3.0 | 101.67 | +0.45 | GNMA 3.5 | 103.11 | +0.28 | Pricing as of: 2/28 5:21PM EST | |
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10 Year US Treasury | 1.8267 -0.1437 |
| Price / Yield | Change |
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US Treasury | 2 YR Treasury | 1.434 | -0.135 | 5 YR Treasury | 1.719 | -0.151 | 7 YR Treasury | 1.811 | -0.149 | 10 YR Treasury | 1.827 | -0.144 | 30 YR Treasury | 2.165 | -0.119 | Pricing as of: 2/28 5:21PM EST | |
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