Daily Newsletter: Consumers Still Don't Get It When It Comes To Home Prices And Rates

All too often, when it comes to consumer surveys about the future, the results tend to reflect what has already happened as opposed to what will continue to happen. Of course, trends can remain intact, but other times, the writing is on the wall . Looking back at the start of the pandemic, consumers thought the writing was on the wall with respect to home prices according the Fannie Mae's monthly National Housing Survey. A net of 39% of respondents thought home prices would continue to go up in early 2020. A few short months later, more were convinced that home prices would fall . From that point on, the net % of those who thought prices would rise NEVER returned to the 39% pre-pandemic high. All this despite months and months of record-setting home price appreciation. The following chart shows this journey. Focus on the black charted line and the horizontal level line at 39%: Consumers clearly thought the pandemic had turned a corner by early 2021. Covid numbers were declining and price appreciation had been so surprising that, surely, things must have topped out, right? Wrong ... By September 2021, the trend reversed course (thank you, Delta variant), and the black line started to move back in a logical direction. But even though it ticked up slightly again in the most recent survey, does it make sense for the net percentage to remain almost 10% below the pre-pandemic net percentage?

March 7, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Consumers Still Don't Get It When It Comes To Home Prices And Rates All too often, when it comes to consumer surveys about the future, the results tend to reflect what has already happened as opposed to what will continue to happen. Of course, trends can remain intact, but other times, the writing is on the wa... (read more) Housing News Mortgage Applications Stabilized Despite Last Week's Higher Rates Mortgage applications have been making logical moves recently with higher rates causing a sharp deceleration in refinance activity. Purchases are off their recent highs as well, but in much better shape in the bigger picture. In this week's re... (read more) Rob Chrisman Servicing, Digital, Customer Service Tools; Retail Lender News What is $9,140? It was the production cost, per IMB loan for the 3rd quarter in 2021. (The Q4 2021 results are coming out on March 22.) I bring this up because, generally speaking, lenders are selling the loans they manufacture at roughly the same pr... (read more) Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Jump Back Up to Start The Week Mortgage rates have experienced significant volatility so far in 2022. At first, this was almost exclusively a function of the Federal Reserve or, rather, the market's reaction to changes being discussed by the Fed. It was also almost exclusively biased toward higher rates. Since late February, Ukraine is the key consideration for financ... (read more) 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.09% +0.13% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 4.09% +0.13 0.40 15 Yr. Fixed 3.40% +0.07 0.40 30 Yr. FHA 3.55% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 3.55% +0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 3.68% +0.05 0.50 Updates Daily - Last Update: 3/7 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 3.40% +0.07% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 3.89% -0.03 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 3.14% -0.01 0.70 5/1 Yr. ARM 2.98% 0.00 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/24 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 4.15% +0.09 0.44 15 Yr. Fixed 3.47% +0.05 0.47 30 Yr. Jumbo 3.88% +0.04 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/2 MBS / Treasuries MBS Live Recap: Bonds Struggling With Inflation Implications Bonds Struggling With Inflation Implications Although the bond market is still a net beneficiary from the war in Ukraine, rates have increasingly been running into resistance when trying to make new lows. For the 4th time in 6 days, 10yr yields tried to move below 1.70 and bounced. Other risk metrics (stoc... (read more) UMBS 30YR 3.0 100.73 -0.39 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 3.0 100.73 -0.39 UMBS 3.5 102.48 -0.39 GNMA 3.0 101.33 -0.36 GNMA 3.5 102.67 -0.38 Pricing as of: 3/7 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 1.7768 +0.0393 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 1.554 +0.064 5 YR Treasury 1.709 +0.062 7 YR Treasury 1.759 +0.051 10 YR Treasury 1.777 +0.039 30 YR Treasury 2.190 +0.028 Pricing as of: 3/7 5:21PM EST Latest Video The Fed knows they will need to gradually normalize rates, says Roger Fergu... The economic impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine 5 million homeowners could benefit from a refinance, compared to 3 million ... The 2pm Bond Report - March 7, 2022 Around the Web Eye on Housing Households Priced Out by Higher Interest Rates CNBC Used-car prices are still sky-high but they may be easing Calculated Risk Blog Housing Inventory March 7th Update: Inventory Down 1.4% Week-over-week; New Record Low; Possible Bottom Calculated Risk Blog Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for January: "$275 billion in equity withdrawn" in 2021 Calculated Risk Blog Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Decline in February cnbc How to know when oil prices will cause a recession, and what to invest in Reuters Florida Panhandle wildfires force evacuation of hundreds of homes Reuters U.S. Congress negotiators nearing deal on Ukraine aid, government funding bill Calculated Risk Blog Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO reuters German real yields fall to new record low on stagflation fears Fannie Mae More Consumers Expect Mortgage Rates and Home Prices to Rise Even Further reuters GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil rockets, shares and euro dumped Reuters Food prices jump 24.1% yr/yr to hit record high in Feb, U.N. agency says

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