What to know: By James Van Straten (All times are ET unless indicated otherwise)
Two contradictory philosophies jump to mind when considering bitcoin's (BTC) price action of late. |
Do you "buy when there is blood in the streets"? Or perhaps "don't catch a falling knife."? Which applies in today's market, the day after the largest cryptocurrency posted its steepest three-day decline since the collapse of FTX in 2022? The drop left BTC 25% below January's all-time high, despite the advent of President Donald Trump's pro-crypto administration. It's no surprise the largest hack in crypto history has shaken investor sentiment. Add to that the memecoin frenzy, which pulled liquidity out of the broader market. That said, in previous cycles so-called bull-market corrections have sent bitcoin tumbling as much as 35%. Given that BTC hasn't had a meaningful pullback since the yen carry trade unwind last August, the current situation is almost normal. CoinDesk research showed that bitcoin was trading in an extremely tight range for a meaningful period, and a break in the channel was inevitable. On-chain data tells us that bitcoin recently bounced off its 200-day-moving average or roughly $81,800. While short-term holders are selling — panic sales, perhaps? — at the highest level since August, because they have held BTC for 155 days or less they are usually seen as a signal of some form of capitulation in the market. BlackRock's IBIT saw record outflows on Wednesday. However, it's not all bad news. A huge expansion deal was made for Core Scientific (CORZ), while MARA Holdings (MARA) reported strong earnings, with both stocks more than 10% before the open. Meanwhile, NVIDIA (NVDA) topped fourth-quarter estimates to calm investors' nerves. Stay alert! |
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Crypto Feb. 27: Solana-based L2 Sonic SVM (SONIC) mainnet launch (“Mobius”). March 1: Spot trading on the Arkham Exchange goes live in 17 U.S. states. March 5 (provisional): At epoch 222464, testing of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade on the Sepolia testnet starts. Macro Day 2 of 2: 2025’s first G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting (Cape Town, South Africa). Feb. 27, 7:00 a.m.: Brazil's Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases January employment data.Unemployment Rate Est. 6.6% vs. Prev. 6.2% Feb. 27, 7:00 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases January employment dataUnemployment Rate Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.4% Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Q4 GDP (2nd estimate).Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.2%PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.5% GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases Unemployment Insurance Weekly claims for the week ended Feb. 22.Initial Jobless Claims Est. 221K vs. Prev. 219K Feb. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases January personal consumption data.Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.8% PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.6%Personal Income MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.7%Earnings March 6 (TBC): Bitfarms (BITF), $-0.04 March 17 (TBC): Bit Digital (BTBT), $-0.05March 18 (TBC): TeraWulf (WULF), $-0.03 March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38 |
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| Feb. 28: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $36.67 million. Mar. 1: DYdX to unlock 1.14% of circulating supply worth $6.13 million.Mar. 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.48% of circulating supply worth $13.58 million.Mar. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 0.74% of circulating supply worth $67.52 million.Mar. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 1.3% of circulating supply worth $17.79 million. Mar. 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.63% of circulating supply worth $14.23 million.Mar. 8: Berachain (BERA) to unlock 9.28% of circulating supply worth $77.80 million. |
| Feb. 27: Venice token (VVV) to be listed on Kraken.Feb. 28: Worldcoin (WLD) to be listed on Kraken.Feb. 28: Zcash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH) are being delisted from Bybit |
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By Shaurya Malwa 📍Pump.fun, a Solana-based memecoin launchpad, has seen a sharp decline in token launches and graduations amid a falling market. 📍The platform hit a peak in October 2024, creating over 36,000 tokens in a day and generating a record $3 billion market cap for its ecosystem, but activity has since plummeted, with daily token launches dropping more than 60%. 📍Data from Dune Analytics shows Pump.fun's token graduation rate remains low at around 1%-2%, with many tokens failing to sustain value post-launch, contributing to the downturn. 📍The decline comes as Solana's SOL has dropped more than 40% since the start of the year. |
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| Open interest in perceptual futures tied to APT, one of the best-performing coins of the past 24 hours, has increased, but funding rates and the cumulative volume delta are negative. That's a sign of traders hedging downside risks.SOL and LTC have also seen increases in open interest, but with positive funding rates. BTC and ETH options on Deribit now indicate downside concerns extending until the end of March, while later expirations continue to show a preference for call options.Block flows on Paradigm have been mixed, with puts and OTM call spreads lifted. The SOL March 7 expiry put option at the $120 strike was purchased. |
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| BTC is up 3% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $86,735.19 (24hrs: -2.12%)ETH is up 1.98% at $2,378.49 (24hrs: -3.49%)CoinDesk 20 is up 2.98% at 2,821.02 (24hrs: -1.13%)Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 26 bps at 3.02%BTC funding rate is at 0.0039% (4.26% annualized) on Binance |
| DXY is up 0.23% 106.66 Gold is down 0.77% at $2,893.59/ozSilver is down 0.27% at $31.83/ozNikkei 225 closed +0.3% at 38,256.17Hang Seng closed -0.29% at 23,718.29FTSE is up 0.19% at 8,748.36Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.72% at 5,487.97DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.43% at 43,433.12 S&P 500 closed unchanged at 5,956.06Nasdaq closed +0.26% at 19,075.26S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.49% at 25,328.36S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.46% at 2,379.84U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 5 bps at 4.31%E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.57% at 6,005.00 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.64% at 21,322.25E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.24% at 43,612.00 |
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| BTC Dominance: 60.77 (0.31%)Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02744 (-1.05%)Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 766 EH/sHashprice (spot): $50.5Total Fees: 10.9 BTC / $915,415CME Futures Open Interest: 155,270 BTCBTC priced in gold: 29.6 ozBTC vs gold market cap: 8.42% |
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| BTC's double top breakdown has exposed the former resistance-turned-support below $74,000.On the price chart, there is no other support between $90K and $74K. |
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| MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $263.27 (+5.09%), up 2.82% at $270.70 in pre-marketCoinbase Global (COIN): closed at $212.96 (+0.22%), up 3.22% at $219.81Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$20.16 (+0.35%)MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.45 (+0.28%), up 12.93% at $14.06Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.94 (-4.08%), up 3.69% at $9.27 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.02 (+2.66%), up 18.46% at $11.87CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.88 (-3.31%), up 3.43% at $8.15CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.22 (+1.06%)Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $43.91 (+3.51%), up 1.41% at $44.53 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $44.48 (+11.59%), up 8.48% at $48.25 |
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| Daily net flow: -$754.6 millionCumulative net flows: $37.13 billionTotal BTC holdings ~ 1,139 million. |
| Daily net flow: -$94.3 millionCumulative net flows: $2.93 billionTotal ETH holdings ~ 3.714 million. |
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CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. |
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. |
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