What to know: By James Van Straten (All times are ET unless indicated otherwise) Macroeconomic factors continue to drive bitcoin's (BTC) short-term price volatility as it holds steady above $80,000, with a wave of significant news emerging over the past 24 hours. |
Still, there's a risk-off feeling in the air as the divergence between bitcoin and the broader crypto market grows. Bitcoin dominance has surged to 62%, approaching a year-to-date high, while the ether-to-bitcoin (ETH-BTC) ratio has turned negative on a four-year compound annual basis, meaning ETH is underperforming. Meanwhile, Trump’s trade wars persist as another concern reining in optimism in the market. That's not just with Canada, but also in the form of metal tariffs, prompting retaliatory measures from the European Union. One of the most intriguing developments comes from Canada, where newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney has filed to sell U.S. dollar bonds. While the size of the sale remains undisclosed, it's worth noting the country is the sixth-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, possessing $379 billion as of the end of 2024. If the sale proceeds, it could put upward pressure on yields, which is the opposite of what Trump wants. The Treasury yield narrative is paramount because roughly $9 trillion worth of U.S. debt is set to mature or require refinancing this year alone. This is one of the key reasons why the U.S. administration is eager to bring down Treasury yields. More immediately, market attention is turning to today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with risk-asset bulls hoping for a softer inflation print. The S&P 500 is hovering around correction territory, down nearly 10%. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, risk assets could face further downside. Stay Alert! |
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Crypto March 12: Hemi (HEMI), an L2 blockchain that operates on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, has its mainnet launch. March 15: Athene Network (ATH) mainnet launch. March 15: Reploy will close its V1 RAI staking program to new users as it transitions to a fully automated revenue-sharing protocol. March 17: CME Group launches solana (SOL) futures. March 18: Zano (ZANO) hard fork network upgrade which activates “ETH Signature support for off-chain signing and asset operations.” March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade goes live on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.Macro March 12, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February consumer price inflation data.Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.3% vs. Prev. 0.16% Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5% vs. Prev. 4.56%March 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February consumer price inflation data.Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4% Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3.3%Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.5%Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3% March 12, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada announces its interest-rate decision followed by a press conference (livestream link) 45 minutes later.Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% vs. Prev. 3%March 12, 12:00 p.m.: Russia's Federal State Statistics Service releases February consumer price inflation data. Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 1.2%Inflation Rate YoY Est. 10.1% vs. Prev. 9.9%March 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February producer price inflation data. Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.6%PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.5% Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) March 12 (TBC): TeraWulf (WULF), $-0.03 March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38 |
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| March 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.93% of circulating supply worth $58.26 million. March 14: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $10.67 million.March 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.35 million.March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply worth $31.53 million.March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $79.60 million.March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $12.70 million. |
| March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG. |
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By Shaurya Malwa 📍The freshly issued BMT tokens of Bubblemaps, a crypto transparency and on-chain analysis tool, are down more than 50% since going live on Tuesday. 📍Bubblemaps uses clustering to group wallet addresses into bubbles, revealing whale concentrations, insider control or suspicious patterns (e.g. a deployer with 76% of supply), helping investors assess risks through visual ownership maps. 📍BMT can be used to access an "Intel Desk" for community-driven scam investigations and premium analytics features, and participate in governance. 📍People are slamming BMT for a nearly 90% supply concentration in one wallet, a mintable contract risking inflation, an elitist airdrop excluding many, and unlocked liquidity raising rug-pull fears, which is rather ironic for a transparency-focused project. |
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| Cumulative open interest in ETH standard and perpetual futures has risen to 9.75 million ETH, the highest since Feb. 3. The count has increased from 8.4 million ETH four weeks ago, which shows traders have been selling into the falling market.Open interest in BTC perp and standard futures remains light, with funding rates marginally positive. SOL, ADA, TRX and LINK still see negative perpetual funding rates. Deribit-listed BTC and ETH options continue to exhibit a bias for puts out to May expiry, with meaningful constructive outlook for calls emerging from the third quarter.Overnight block flows featured selling higher strike BTC and ETH calls and purchase of short-tenor puts |
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| BTC is down 0.55% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $82,577.14 (24hrs: +0.87%)ETH is down 2.6% at $1,892.41 (24hrs: -1.58%)CoinDesk 20 is down 1% at 2,556.70 (24hrs: +0.52%)Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 32 bps at 3.43%BTC funding rate is at 0.007% (2.54% annualized) on Binance |
| DXY is down 0.31% at 103.52Gold is unchanged at $2,914.29/ozSilver is up 0.69% at $33.01/ozNikkei 225 closed unchanged at 36,819.09Hang Seng closed -0.76 at 23,600.31FTSE is up 0.43% at 8,532.17Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.19% at 5,373.08DJIA closed on Tuesday -1.14% at 41,433.48S&P 500 closed -0.76% at 5,572.07Nasdaq closed -0.18% at 17,436.10S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.54% at 24,248.20S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.44% at 2,307.52U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.28% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.54% at 5,607.25E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.67% at 19,529.25E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.37% at 41,627.00 |
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| BTC Dominance: 62.13 (-0.16%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02290 (-0.06%)Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 815 EH/sHashprice (spot): $46.1Total Fees: 6.03 BTC / $490,764CME Futures Open Interest: 142,725 BTCBTC priced in gold: 28.3 ozBTC vs gold market cap: 8.04% |
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| The dollar index, which represents the greenback's exchange rate against a basket of fiat currencies, has dropped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support of the late September to January rally.The breakdown means a potential soft U.S. CPI release could easily send the index sliding to 102.31, the 78.6% retracement support. A deeper slide in the dollar could bode well for risk assets, including BTC. |
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| Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $260.59 (+8.91%), down 0.58% at $259.09 in pre-marketCoinbase Global (COIN): closed at $191.69 (+6.95%), unchanged in pre-marketGalaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.27 (-1.09%)MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.32 (-0.67%), down 0.68% at $13.23 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.72 (+2.12%), down 0.26% at $7.70Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.63 (+7.74%), down 0.46% at $8.59CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.26 (+3.51%), down 0.73% at $8.20CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.08 (+4.14%)Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.80 (+0.18%) Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.50 (-0.41%), up 0.94% at $24.73 |
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| Daily net flow: -$371 millionCumulative net flows: $35.47 billionTotal BTC holdings ~ 1,121 million. |
| Daily net flow: -$21.6 millionCumulative net flows: $2.66 billionTotal ETH holdings ~ 3.571 million. |
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CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. |
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. |
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