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| Thursday, May 20, 2021 |
| What is happening in baseball? As we talked about for the first 10 minutes on today's podcast, the constant stream of no-hitters, the latest by Corey Kluber on Wednesday, early this season might just be random. On the other hand, there's clearly something happening in today's game. Actually, there's a combination of things that are all leading to these results: analytics departments are better than ever at creating shifts, strikeouts are up, hitters are stubborn, and there's a new baseball that is suppressing home runs more than in recent years. It has certainly made analyzing Fantasy Baseball a challenge this season. |
| Outside of Kluber, we had a bunch of bounce-back starting pitcher performances -- and then Shohei Ohtani. He was fine in his start against Cleveland but alarms were set off as he averaged just 91.3 mph on his fastball. Ohtani entered this start averaging 96.6 mph on that pitch. Both he and Joe Maddon assured everybody that nothing was wrong after the game and that Ohtani just didn't have his fastball Wednesday. Maybe that was the case but this is a reminder of the downside with Ohtani. A two-way player is awesome to watch but is inherently exposed to more injury risk as a pitcher. Keep that in mind. |
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| Kluber's no-hitter makes history |
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| Yankees SP Corey Kluber threw a no-hitter on Wednesday, just one day after Tigers SP Spencer Turnbull through a no-hitter -- it was the first time since April 30 and May 1 in 1969 with no-hitters on consecutive days in MLB. Wild stuff in what has quickly become the year of the no-hitter. And while throwing no-hitters is considered by some to be an easier feat to complete than it used to be, it's still very difficult to do and an achievement for Kluber. |
| It was the first no-hitter of Kluber's storied career. He struck out nine batters and only walked one. He needed just 101 pitches to go the distance in a 2-0 win for the Yankees. It's easy to appreciate how economical Kluber was on Wednesday; he finished the game by retiring the final 20 batters he faced. Under the hood, the numbers looked excellent as well. Kluber was able to generate 13 swinging strikes and a swinging strike rate of 38 percent. |
| Kluber's velocity may not be anything to write home about, but he is doing an excellent job locating his secondary pitches. |
| I'm not sold now is the time to sell Kluber. If you are concerned with his long-term outlook due to injuries that's one thing, but his profile projects well otherwise moving forward. I have him at SP45 now, but Chris thinks that's a little too bullish. The way I see it, if Kluber can be 85% of what he has been in the past, that's easily a top-50 SP. |
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| Giolito bounces back |
| White Sox SP Lucas Giolito hasn't posted the numbers Fantasy managers were expecting -- or anywhere close -- up until his start on Wednesday against the Twins. We may not want to make too much of pitchers shutting down the last-place Twins, but Giolito certainly looked sharp against Minnesota while throwing eight innings of one-run ball. He allowed just two hits and walked three. |
| If you drafted Giolito early it was for the strikeout upside, and that showed up on Wednesday. He struck out 11 batters and his changeup was a punch-out pitch, with Giolito generating a 45% swinging strike rate on that secondary pitch. Giolito essentially never got in any real trouble and the only run he allowed was a home run to Nelson Cruz (his 10th of the season). |
| As Chris pointed out, the slider has been the trouble pitch for Giolito this season. He generated a 35% swinging strike rate with only a 68 mph exit velocity on his sliders on Wednesday. While that's obviously too small of a sample size to say there's nothing to worry about, he showed serious signs of getting it back. Giolito is not a buy or a sell right now, but a hold. |
| More news and notes |
| Padres SS Fernando Tatis returned off the COVID IL Wednesday and reminded everybody of his stardom. He finished 4 for 4 with 10th home run of the season, two doubles, and his eighth steal. Maybe that time away also helped with his shoulder. Either way, he looks perfectly fine. No matter what comes Tatis' way, he continues to produce like a Fantasy superstar. Diamondbacks 2B/OF Ketel Marte was activated from the IL but didn't start Wednesday against the Dodgers. Mets SP Jacob deGrom played catch Wednesday and will make a rehab start for Low-A St. Lucie on Thursday, which means he will not start with the Mets this week. Mets SP Noah Syndergaard allowed one hit and no walks while striking out five in four innings during his first rehab start for Low-A St. Lucie. Apparently he was sitting 93-95 mph; he averaged 97.7 mph back in 2019. His velocity is something to keep an eye on, but he's likely just working his way back. Mets 1B Pete Alonso was out of the lineup on Wednesday due to a sore left wrist. Astros SP Framber Valdez will make another rehab start Saturday for Triple-A Sugar Land. Following Wednesday's game the Rockies optioned INF Alan Trejo to Triple-A. This sounds like 2B Brendan Rodgers will be called up Friday. Twins 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff began a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Wednesday. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said SP Kenta Maeda should be good to go in their upcoming series against Cleveland. Nationals SP Eric Fedde and RP Tanner Rainey were placed on the COVID IL. Angels SP Alex Cobb will be activated and start Thursday against the Twins. Mariners 2B/OF Dylan Moore was placed on the IL with a left calf strain. Cardinals SP Miles Mikolas is set to make his season debut Saturday against the Cubs as he returns from a shoulder injury. He is 23% rostered and hasn't pitched in a regular season game since 2019. Mets SP Taijuan Walker was placed on the IL with left side tightness. Twins SP Michael Pineda was placed on the IL after having that procedure on his thigh. Padres OF Wil Myers could return from the COVID IL this weekend. Yankees SS Gleyber Torres returned on Wednesday and was batting fifth for the Yankees. The Braves demoted SP Tucker Davidson back to Triple-A after his quality start on Tuesday. The Rays placed SP/RP Luis Patino on the IL with a right middle finger laceration. For those in dynasty leagues, Orioles OF Heston Kjerstad, the team's first-round pick last year, is gradually getting back into playing shape but remains without a clear timeline to make his professional debut. He was diagnosed with a heart condition last fall. |
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| More bounce-back SPs |
| Padres SP Joe Musgrove looked like the pitcher who got off to a Cy Young-like start to his 2021 season on Wednesday. He pitched seven shutout innings at home against the Rockies and allowed just two hits while walking zero batters. He added 11 strikeouts, only needed 93 pitches to go eight and generated 18 swinging strikes. This was Musgrove's first quality start in a full month (since April 19). If you're confidence was starting to waver a bit since his no-hitter, this was a very good sign. |
| Braves SP Charlie Morton looked like the SP we were all targeting two draft cycles ago against the Mets on Wednesday night. He pitched six innings of one-run ball and allowed just two hits with zero walks. Morton only needed 79 pitches to go six innings. He struck out eight batters and generated 14 swinging strikes. The underlying numbers have been there for Morton all season and Chris hasn't budged him from just outside his top 25 SPs. |
| Indians SP Aaron Civale went seven innings allowing just two earned runs and one walk. He struck out eight batters and generated a season-high 16 swinging strikes. He has now gone at least six innings deep in seven of his nine starts. |
| Phillies SP Zach Eflin bounced back vs. the Marlins going six innings allowing six hits, zero walks and two earned runs. He struck out six batters and generated 13 swinging strikes on 89 pitches. Chris thinks we have not given Eflin his due on the FBT show. He has him ranked up where Civale is, and I can understand that -- Eflin has a five-pitch aresnal. The biggest change in his game is that he has 0.78 walks per start! His command has taken that jump. |
| Waiver options |
| Red Sox 2B/OF Kike Hernandez (33% rostered) had three hits with his fifth homer on Wednesday. He returned on Tuesday and has led off both games as expected in a better than anticipated Red Sox lineup. |
| Mets 2B/3B/SS Jonathan Villar (28% rostered) is red hot and enjoying his newfound playing time! He has three homers and two steals over his last seven games. He has led off two straight games and should continue to stay in that slot if he keeps hitting. |
| Pirates OF Gregory Polanco (13% rostered) went 2 for 3 with his fourth homer and three RBI. He now has eight hits over his last seven games and even picked up his first hit against a lefty this year. He has four homers and four steals in just 32 games. |
| Red Sox SP Garrett Richards (35% rostered) looked good against the Blue Jays, going 6 1/3 innings and allowing seven hits, four walks and two earned runs. He now has a 3.72 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. |
| Streaming options |
| Thursday |
| Rangers SP Dane Dunning vs. NYY Giants SP Johnny Cueto at CIN Braves SP Drew Smyly vs. PIT Phillies SP Vince Velasquez vs. MIA Astros RP/SP Luis Garcia at OAK A's RP/SP Cole Irvin vs. HOU |
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