Core Logic Sees Smaller Home Price Losses Ahead Despite Some "At-Risk" Markets

The FHFA and S&P Case Shiller published home price index data last week for the month of November. Both showed moderate month-over-month declines offset by still-high year-over-year numbers. Today's CoreLogic home price data paints a similar picture (but for the month of December) with a modest 0.4% decline month-over-month and a 6.9% annual growth rate. 6.9% is still on the higher end of historical norms from before the post-pandemic boom, but CoreLogic goes a step farther by updating forecasts in addition to the hard data. The firm sees next month's year-over-year number dropping to +3.0%. Bad news, right?! Not so fast... We have to remember the economic phenomenon of "base effects." This means that annual numbers can and will change--sometimes substantially--just because data from 12 months ago falls out of a calculation. So while this month's year-over-year number includes last December, next month's won't. If last December was a strong month (it was), that would make the new year-over-year number look like it fell a lot. Interestingly enough, the same forecast that delivers the big drop in annual price appreciation also shows a slowdown in price losses with January only seen losing 0.2% to December's 0.4%. The slowdown is more evident in Western states. The following chart shows the percent change in prices vs last year. All Western states came in under the 5% mark (and Idaho was the lone state that posted a decline).

February 7, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Core Logic Sees Smaller Home Price Losses Ahead Despite Some "At-Risk" Markets The FHFA and S&P Case Shiller published home price index data last week for the month of November. Both showed moderate month-over-month declines offset by still-high year-over-year numbers. Today's CoreLogic home price data paints a ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Still Rising, But at a Slower Pace The majority of January was characterized by sharp decline in mortgage rate volatility and the lowest rates in several months, the first week of February has done its best to erase that progress. This is a process that began in earnest after la... (read more) MBS Commentary Bonds Tried (And Failed) to Sustain Post-Powell Rally Bonds Tried (And Failed) to Sustain Post-Powell Rally After much anticipation and defensive positioning, the bond market was finally able to hear from Powell in a less formal setting this afternoon--and impor... (read more) Rob Chrisman Reverse, Servicing Products; Wholesaler News; Bill Cosgrove on Origination Costs “Ain’t I rough enough? Ain’t I tough enough?” Ain't I rich enough? In love enough?” So Mick Jagger sang. This can apply to many parts of life, but in this case it seems that it is not enough for CRA (Community Reinvestment Act) requirements to apply ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.45% +0.06% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.45% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.55% +0.10 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.90% +0.08 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.00% +0.08 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.62% +0.07 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.92% +0.07 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/7 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.55% +0.10% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.09% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.14% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/2 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.19% -0.01 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.04 0.73 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.99% +0.07 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/1 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.58 +0.03 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 99.58 +0.03 UMBS 5.5 100.92 +0.08 GNMA 5.0 100.13 -0.03 GNMA 5.5 101.13 0.00 Pricing as of: 2/7 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.6773 +0.0337 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.469 -0.005 5 YR Treasury 3.835 +0.005 7 YR Treasury 3.772 +0.021 10 YR Treasury 3.677 +0.034 30 YR Treasury 3.715 +0.039 Pricing as of: 2/7 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fed Chair Powell: There will be more rate increases to get to our 2 percent... Fed Chair Powell: 2023 will be a year of significant declines in inflation Minneapolis Fed President: I'm not sure we've done enough to bring the labo... Last week Powell caved, says Summit Global's David Harden Around the Web CNBC Fed Chief Powell says the the disinflationary process has begun, but has a long way to go reuters ECB's Nagel calls for more, big rate hikes Eye on Housing Age of Housing Stock by State Wall Street Journal Fed's Jerome Powell to Address Economic Outlook, With Hiring Surge in Spotlight Eye on Housing The Aging Housing Stock CNBC Fed's Neel Kashkari says central bank has not made enough progress, keeping his rate outlook Calculated Risk Blog Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Declined in December; Down 5.3% since June Calculated Risk Blog Freddie Mac House Price Index Declines for 7th Consecutive Month in December CNBC Treasury yields dip as investors look to remarks from Fed Chairman Powell Black Knight Black Knights December 2022 Mortgage Monitor Calculated Risk Blog Housing February 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 1.9% Week-over-week reuters Bank of England's Mann doubles down on backing for rate hikes Calculated Risk Blog CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% YoY in December; Declined 0.4% MoM in December NSA

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