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| Monday, July 8, 2024 |
| It's Anthony Richards-I mean it is Indianapolis Colts Day! |
| It truly feels like this Indy team's outcome -- at least from an upside standpoint -- is tied entirely to the health and effectiveness of Anthony Richardson. I have been so excited to dive into this team's outlook! Richardson is such a dynamic player, if he and Shane Steichen find success together, it's going to be wildly entertaining. |
| Before we dive into the outlook for this Steichen and Richardson-led Colts team, I'll catch you up on the ground that has already been covered in this summer team-by-team exploration. |
| July's FFT newsletter topics: |
Monday, July 1 -- Projecting the New York Jets and New England Patriots
Tuesday, July 2 -- Projecting the Miami Dolphins
Wednesday, July 3 -- Projecting the Buffalo Bills
Thursday, July 4 -- Projecting the Kansas City Chiefs
Friday, July 5 -- Projecting the Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver Broncos |
| If you are a new subscriber or missed any of those newsletters, no worries! We're working on creating a space to host previous newsletters. Rest assured that you'll be able to read all of my ramblings to your heart's fullest content at some point this summer! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Indy's projections: |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (8th) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 20.7 (29th) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 24.2 (1st) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Run it back! This staff made things work with Gardner Minshew last year! |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Drafted tackle Matt Goncalves in Round 3 and guard Tanor Bortolini in Round 4 |
| This was one of the best offensive lines in 2023, and all that Indy did this offseason was bolster it further. Ryan Kelly and Quenton Nelson are the best-known name on Indy's line and actually graded as the third and fourth-best linemen by PFF. This line is stacked. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann took a huge step forward in his second season and earned the best pass-blocking grade on a Colts team that posted the 10th-lowest pressure rate. |
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| What type of player might Anthony Richardson be? |
| Nate Tice wrote a really fun article for Yahoo Fantasy detailing Richardson's skill set. That's a fantastic place to start if you want to learn more about Richardson and what type of potential he brings to the table. There's much more than just rushing upside available to this exciting young player! |
| For Fantasy purposes, the conversation absolutely does revolve around Richardson's rushing contributions, though. As a rookie, Richardson played roughly two and a half games and rushed 25 times for 136 yards and four touchdowns. Richardson accounted for 40% of Indy's red zone opportunities during the plays that he was on the field for; only Taysom Hill registered a higher rate at QB in 2023. |
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| Richardson ran a lot in the red zone, and Shane Steichen was a big part of that. No QB registered a higher designed rush rate in the red zone in 2023. |
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| Overall, Richardson wasn't as active of a scrambler as you might imagine. And that goes back to the article that Tice wrote. Richardson is a capable and willing scrambler, but he's not dropping back to run. He has legit passing talent and is looking to make plays down the field with his arm. |
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| Richardson remained active in the red zone, though, looking to make a play with his legs on one-fourth of his red zone dropbacks. |
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| You can compare these pro scramble rates to the collegiate data that I collected on these rushing QBs and find that Richardson wasn't nearly as prone to using his legs to create plays as some recent QB prospects: |
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| This leaves the door open for Richardson to surprise us with the number of passing touchdowns that he produces. I have the Colts projected for just 20.7 passing scores while leaning heavily on the ground game when in scoring distance, because that's the way that Steichen has rolled. |
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| I laid out the red zone rushing TD distribution between Steichen's quarterbacks and running backs if you are curious: |
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| It hasn't just been Jalen Hurts who has benefited from Steichen. Gardner Minshew scored three red zone rushing touchdowns last year. Justin Herbert scored five red zone rushing touchdowns for Steichen as a rookie. Steichen feels like the perfect pairing to unlock Richardson's upside as a rusher. |
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| My favorite stat relating to Richardson is collegiate pressures per sack rate. Among recent QB prospects, Richardson's rate is one of the absolute best. That's exciting. In 2023, the two best pro rates belonged to Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Bryce Young had the worst (highest) rate, followed by Zack Wilson, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Deshaun Watson, and Will Levis. This is an important stat. Sacks are drive killers. |
| Career collegiate pressures per sack: |
15.48 - Michael Penix Jr.
10.69 - Anthony Richardson
9.38 - Mac Jones
8.63 - Bo Nix
8.08 - C.J. Stroud
7.96 - Tua Tagovailoa
7.89 - Jordan Love
7.00 - J.J. McCarthy
6.47 - Bryce Young
6.35 - Trevor Lawrence
6.04 - Sam Darnold
6.00 - Kyler Murray
5.86 - Josh Allen
5.58 - Justin Herbert
5.58 - Lamar Jackson
5.50 - Josh Rosen
5.37 - Kenny Pickett
5.29 - Drake Maye
5.20 - Daniel Jones
5.17 - Caleb Williams
4.92 - Baker Mayfield
4.57 - Joe Burrow
4.55 - Zach Wilson
4.25 - Justin Fields
4.08 - Jayden Daniels |
| You might think that because Josh Allen now ranks first in the NFL in this metric performing poorly in college doesn't matter. He is truly the one exception among recent examples. Burrow's rate has remained worse than the league average throughout his career, and he's made little to no improvement since his rookie year. Similarly, Herbert's rate has not changed in any meaningful way. Neither has Lamar Jackson's. Ranking low doesn't preclude a QB from success, but it might make the path more difficult. |
| Richardson took four sacks in his first NFL game and so his pressure to sack rate as a pro looks poor so far. His collegiate data suggests there's plenty of reason for optimism that he can develop into one of the best pocket navigators in the league. Combine that ability with Richardson's arm talent, a diverse group of pass-catching options, and one of the best play-callers around, and this Indianapolis Colts offense is very easy to get excited about. |
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| Derriik Klassen ranked every offensive play-caller, which is what the above excerpt on Steichen came from. That was a great read, you can find it here! |
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Michael Pittman fills one of the favorable roles in the NFL
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| In his first season with Steichen installing the offense, Pittman's target per route run rate climbed from 22% to 27.7%. The only receivers who drew a target on a higher percentage of their routes in 2023 (minimum 300 routes) were Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Keenan Allen, and Puka Nacua. |
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| Pittman elevated his game in his fourth season, I don't mean to take anything away from him. But, his target spike can be contextualized by Indy's massive increase in run/pass options. The Colts used 'RPO' plays at the highest rate of any team in 2023, and Pittman was a direct beneficiary. |
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| Gardner Minshew led the NFL with 4.5 RPO attempts per start, a year after Steichen and Hurts led the NFL with 5.3 RPO attempts per start. In Richardson's two games that weren't interrupted by injury, the rookie QB attempted seven RPO passes, so he wasn't quite at the league-leading frequency. It'll be interesting to see how much RPO Steichen calls up for Richardson in Year 2. |
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Do not sleep on Josh Downs
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| Downs injured his knee in Week 9 but didn't miss any games. His performance was clearly impacted during the second half of his rookie season, though. |
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| Downs is a really interesting player. At the collegiate level, he had one of the highest contested catch rates of any recent WR prospects. He's 5-foot-9 and 172 pounds. Downs also is deadly against man coverage. This is not your run-of-the-mill slot receiver. Among the receivers Matt Harmon has graded so far, only Garrett Wilson and Nico Collins registered a higher man coverage success rate in the 2023 Reception Perception database. Read Downs' Reception Perception profile here. |
| His ability to shake loose from individual man coverage is an important trait that could earn Downs more targets, particularly when in the red zone. Another important trait that Downs brings is an ability to improvise. This could pair very nicely with Richardson as the two build familiarity. |
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| I'm very excited to see how Downs develops in Year 2 and how this offense evolves with Richardson at QB and rookie Adonai Mitchell presenting more of a speed threat on the perimeter for opposing defenses. Downs could be a big part of it. |
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| When both Downs and Pittman were on the field together through the first eight weeks, it was actually the rookie who scored more PPR points. |
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| This does not mean that Downs outproduced Pittman as a whole through eight weeks. Overall, Pittman scored more Fantasy points. This split only includes plays where both were on the field, and this brings us to an important note for Downs -- he only logged 13 total plays from two-receiver sets all season. Fortunately, the Colts use a lot of three-receiver sets. |
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| Even while being limited to essentially slot-only work at this point in his career, Downs still projects to play a meaningful role. I'd be shocked if Downs does not outproduce AD Mitchell in 2023. It's hard to understate how underwhelming Mitchell's collegiate production was. Mitchell never averaged more than two yards per route run in a single season. Even Jonathan Mingo accomplished that. Mitchell was targeted on only 18.7% of his routes at Texas in 2023. He was the only WR prospect with a rate below 20. The chance of Mitchell mattering (for Fantasy) in a run-first offense as a rookie feels extremely low. |
| Jonathan Taylor could put up a HUGE rushing TD total |
| Jonathan Taylor is likely going to matter a lot for Fantasy, even if Richardson takes on a much larger red zone rushing role than Minshew did. |
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| When on the field in 2023, Taylor accounted for 46% of Indy's red zone opportunities. Only four backs registered a higher rate . Vegas look-ahead lines have the Colts implied for 412 points in 2024, which ranks 17th. And still, no team carries a higher rush touchdown total in my projections than the Colts. I'm projecting that 54% of Indy's offensive touchdowns will come on the ground, the highest rate of any team. Steichen's Eagles offenses produced 25 and 32 rushing touchdowns, last year's Colts offense produced 19, and I'm projecting the Richardson-led Colts to score 24. In Steichen's four years as a play-caller, the RB position has accounted for 59% of total rushing scores. Assigning 59% of 24.2 rushing touchdowns to the 2024 Colts RB group yields a 14.3 touchdown total for the position. I have Taylor projected for 12.5 touchdowns, only Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey project for more. |
| Even with that projection, I haven't landed Taylor in any drafts. I worry about Taylor's lack of involvement as a pass-catcher, and I find Richardson's draft cost a much more palatable way to get exposure to this Colts rushing attack. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July! Tuesday, we will be covering the Tennessee Titans. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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