| |
|
| Wednesday, May 28, 2025 |
| It's time to finish up our discussion about how NFL coaching changes might affect the upcoming Fantasy season. So far, we've covered: |
| Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly, and the Las Vegas RaidersMike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels, and the New England Patriots Tommy Rees as the new OC for the Cleveland BrownsJohn Morton as the new OC for the Detroit Lions Kellen Moore departing as Eagles OC to become the head coach of the New Orleans SaintsKevin Patullo as the new OC for the PhiladelphiaWhat worked for Liam Coen with the Bucs and how he might bring life to the Jacksonville JaguarsKlint Kubiak's potential impact on Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Kenneth WalkerBen Johnson moving on from the Lions to visualize a new-look Chicago Bears |
| |
| |
| Who's new around the NFL in 2025? |
| Below is a helpful graphic that I pulled from this article on thehuddle.com. The coaches that have a zero next to their name and are highlighted are new hires. |
| |
| |
| Here's who we're going to focus on in today's newsletter: |
| Brian Schottenheimer and the Dallas CowboysTanner Engstrand and the New York JetsJosh Grizzard and the Tampa Bay BuccaneersNick Caley and the Houston Texans |
| |
| Brian Schottenheimer promoted from O.C. to Head Coach |
| I don't expect any significant changes to the Dallas offense that we've had over the past two seasons. This is Schottenheimer's first crack at head coaching duties, and I'm expecting him to be heavily involved in play design and in-game sequencing. Dallas hired former Arizona Cardinals offensive line coach Klayton Adams as offensive coordinator for 2025. Schottenheimer will probably be the one calling the shots. |
| Here's what I know about Schotty offenses: |
| They lean run-heavy, all things equal, historicallyVaried run-game scheme, leaning zone-heavyHe's leaned more and more into play action to create deep passing opportunities as his career has progressedNot much intermediate looks layered into the passing game. It's mostly quick-game mixed with deep shots. |
| Dak Prescott's been at his best when operating the quick game, and he was among the best statistical deep passers in 2024. He certainly is capable of picking defenses apart at any level of the field, but Prescott has run into problems forcing turnover-worthy throws into the intermediate area in the past. That's where he was at his worst statistically in 2024. |
| CeeDee Lamb is deadly at all levels of the field, and Schottenheimer has two years of experience working with him. He's one of the truly rare situation-independent receivers in the NFL. George Pickens is a somewhat redundant addition, as the best trait for both of the top Dallas receivers is crushing man/press coverage. He will certainly add to the deep passing threat and has a better chance of coming down with 50/50 balls than Jalen Tolbert and company did in 2024. But the relative lack of zone coverage expertise has me wondering if we might see Jake Ferguson emerge as a massive Fantasy football value. |
| |
| |
| With Pickens and Lamb to threaten defenses over the top, I don't expect Ferguson to get much attention. While he's not overwhelming as an athlete, Ferguson has shown an ability to consistently present an open target. And Schottenheimer's offenses have often featured a tight end in the receiving game. |
| Since 2010, the top-20 target earners within a Schottenheimer offense list features six tight ends. These offenses have had some serious talent at the WR position! |
| |
| We probably should not get carried away with Jake Ferguson expectations, but he could pile up targets as one of the primary zone-coverage options for Dak and Schotty, and defenses used zone coverage 68% of the time in 2024. In two seasons with Schotty at O.C., Ferguson has a 22% target per route run rate vs. zone coverage, second only to Lamb's 27% rate. He's probably going to play an important role that results in lots of short targets. I don't think that the addition of Pickens affects that role in a negative way at all, in fact, it probably helps by lifting the lid a bit on the defense. The targets make Ferguson a "safe" pick at TE, and any touchdowns he scores are the path to upside. |
| |
| It's tough to parse through Schottenheimer's career and make guesses as to how involved he was in decisions as he worked as the OC for coaches like Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy, and Jeff Fisher. But, regardless of how heavy a hand he played in these decisions, Schottenheimer has been involved in the decision to feature "new" running backs in several offenses throughout his career. |
| 2006 -- Rookie Round 4 pick (5-foot-8 and 192 pounds) Leon Washington took over lead back duties for the New York Jets |
| 2013 -- Rookie Round 5 pick Zac Stacy took over lead back duties for the St. Louis Rams |
| 2014 -- Rookie Round 3 pick Tre Mason cut into Stacy's workload and became the 1A in the backfield to close out the season |
| 2018-2019 -- The glorious Chris Carson years in Seattle (Carson was a Round 7 pick) |
| 2023 -- Tony Pollard (former Round 4 pick) got his first shot at lead back duties |
| 2024 -- Rico Dowdle (UDFA) handled 250+ touches and nearly matched Chris Carson's 2018 Fantasy production |
| I have no idea how much Schottenheimer influenced those decisions, but that's an extensive list of players picked Round 3 or later who went on to sniff unexpected Fantasy relevancy. As we look at a 2025 Cowboys backfield that feels wide open, it's hard not to feel some cautious optimism for one or both rookie running backs Jaydon Blue (Round 5 pick) and Phil Mafah (Round 7). |
| Of the two, Blue is the one whose skill set has me the most excited for Fantasy. It feels like the Cowboys need playmakers to contribute to the passing game, but it's also possible that the upside that Blue offers as a pass-catcher will never matter if Javonte Williams is the trusted pass protector at RB. I hope that Blue gets a chance for more than change-of-pace work. I was intrigued by his film. He was young (turned 21 in January) and inexperienced (he's been sitting behind Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Brooks) during his first opportunity at an expanded role for Texas, and I thought Blue showed flashes of savviness as a processor when working towards open space. That's pretty rare for a player with this speed. It's as necessary, speed is the great equalizer. Even subpar processors can still find angles and create big plays with game-breaking speed. When that type of speed is combined with block-reading and setting and an ability to find and read angles and put defenders in disadvantageous situations with run-pace tempo, something special like De'Von Achane's unprecedented 2023 efficiency can be the result. Blue has shown only glimpses of putting these skills together, and Schottenheimer has not shown anything akin to Mike McDaniel's creativity as a play designer. I want to provide an opportunity to cool our jets together, here. |
| This Dallas offensive line could be pretty dope, though. And none of the other Dallas running backs have compelled me to write a 240-word paragraph today (I miss you 2020 Javonte Williams). Keep Blue's name in mind, even if he has a slow start to his rookie season. There's opportunity and talent, and Blue will probably be available to scoop off of waiver wires in any sort of non-Dynasty league. |
| Tanner Engstrand and the Jets |
| |
| Tanner Engstrand and new Jets head coach Aaron Glenn worked together in Detroit, and the former will be trusted with primary design responsibilities over an NFL offense for the first time in 2025. His coaching journey began learning the West Coast way as Jim Harbaugh's graduate assistant at San Diego in 2005. During 10 seasons at San Diego, he worked as RB coach, QB coach, assistant head coach, and offensive coordinator. He worked with Harbaugh for one more season, as an offensive analyst in 2018, before spending two seasons as an O.C. and RB coach at the XFL level. From 2020-2024, he worked with the Lions. He was promoted from offensive assistant to offensive quality control to tight ends coach and then to pass game coordinator. |
| I couldn't find stats for the 2011-2017 San Diego Toreros anywhere, and the Detroit Lions tenure feels so clearly flavored by Ben Johnson's influence, so I really have no way of predicting what Engstrand might bring to the table. |
| I've fallen down a bit of a rabbit hole in listening to Engstrand take press conferences in-season for the Detroit Lions, and it feels like he really values "space players" and getting the ball into their hands quickly before the defense is ready to rally to the ball. He definitely has some players who can create in space in Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and even role players like Malachi Corley and rookie Round 4 pick Arian Smith. And while Justin Fields is of course a much different QB than Jared Goff, his accuracy data as a short-area passer is good. It's the best in the league -- at least, it was in 2024! |
| |
| I'm intrigued to see how this offense plays out. My guess is that it will be predicated on a run game featuring Hall and Fields and a potentially powerful offensive line. Engstrand's roots suggest that he could employ any type of run scheme. Most recently, the Lions used a ton of outside zone, but who knows if Engstrand had any say in that. I'll be monitoring the run scheme closely during preseason and early regular season action and will inform FFT Newsletter readers if it feels like a particularly good/bad fit for the Jets running backs. |
| Josh Grizzard has big shoes to fill in Tampa Bay |
| |
| Dave Canales and Liam Coen have found tremendous success as offensive designers in Tampa Bay. Next up is Josh Grizzard. 2025 will provide his first chance to work as an offensive coordinator at any level, and he will take on that responsibility at the age of 35. Grizzard worked as the pass game coordinator for the Bucs in 2024, and before that, he spent seven seasons with the Miami Dolphins. During that time, Grizzard worked as offensive quality control coach as well as wide receivers coach. |
| With a passing-game background and no experience as an O.C., it's tough to guess how Grizzard might affect the RB position. For what it's worth, the Duke offenses that he worked with employed a split-backfield approach. That was often the approach that the Dolphins took during his time there, too. Grizzard's recent comments about his RB room don't make me feel especially confident as someone who has invested a ton into Bucky Irving in Dynasty. |
| |
| Irving ran a route on more than 50% of the dropbacks in 2 of 17 games that Rachaad White played in during the 2024 regular-postseason. Following Tampa's Week 11 bye, Irving registered a 36% route rate to White's 49% rate. As a result, his snap rate was 52% during that stretch. That's higher than his early-season rate, but it's low relative to RB in the same Fantasy ADP range. |
| Irving was excellent as a pass-catcher at Oregon, and for all of the praise that White receives as a receiver, Irving's per-route receiving metrics blew his out of the water in 2024. White's pass-pro metrics were much better, though. He only allowed a pressure on six percent of his pass-blocking snaps, compared to 12.5% for Irving. |
| We saw Bucky log a 68% snap rate and out-touch White 19-to-3 in Tampa's playoff game in 2024, even with White playing far more in obvious passing situations. Irving was so good that he did not need to be featured in the pass game to still crush for Fantasy, and that could be the case again. I'd rather not have to bet on outlier efficiency, though. And he truly was an outlier. |
| Maybe he can do it again. I'd feel so much better investing an early draft pick into Irving if he was still benefitting from Liam Coen's offensive design. With Coen gone but White still in the picture, Grizzard's ability to engineer one of the league's most efficient offenses almost feels like a necessary factor in Irving paying off his Fantasy ADP. Maybe he can! I loved his answer at the 3:50 mark of this press conference. And overall, I've loved everything I've heard from him this offseason. He seems extremely detail-oriented and invested in an analytical approach. |
| What about the Tampa Bay passing game? |
| |
| I think it's interesting that Grizzard was hired as pass game coordinator to assist Coen in 2024. Before that, Tampa didn't have anyone listed at that position during the Dave Canales era. It's possible that he had more of a hand in the 2024 offensive design than given credit for. From Grizzard's point of view, he helped Coen build the playbook, and his in-game role was to diagnose defenses and assist with play sequencing . |
| Baker Mayfield endorsed the in-house promotion, and after what Tampa's staff put together on the offensive side of the ball in 2024, it's no surprise that the QB is excited. |
| |
| Tampa's screen game was the best in the NFL, too. Tampa averaged an insane 0.25 EPA per screen pass. The only play-callers who have exceeded that over the past five seasons are Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shanahan, Andy Reid, and Kevin Stefanski. Only 11 offenses even had a positive EPA per screen pass in 2024. The Detroit Lions (0.21) ranked second, and the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams were a distant third and fourth at 0.13. |
| Mayfield benefited from the offensive design in a huge way, in terms of yards created after the catch. For the first time in his career, over half (54%) of his passing yards came after the catch. His previous single-season high was 48%. |
| Either these are all extremely bullish signals for Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense, or Grizzard played a part in Tampa's transformation. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll see him be able to emulate some of what we saw from the Tampa offense in 2024, and it's possible that Grizzard might even expand on some areas. Irving feels appropriately priced relative to his upside, but every other member of the Bucs offense feels like a potential value at current ADP. |
| |
| Can we buy into Nick Caley and the new-look Houston Texans? |
| The Texans ranked bottom-10 in EPA per screen play, and only 44.6% of C.J. Stroud's passing yards came after the catch. That was the eighth-lowest rate out of 28 qualified passers. The offensive line was a problem in 2024 (O-Line coaching was revamped this offseason), but the offensive design did little to help Stroud find easy solutions. |
| I included a tweet where I mentioned the importance of horizontally-breaking routes in reference to the 2024 Bucs offensive design. I'm digging into Houston's data and finding myself simply befuddled. |
| 2024 H-Break Route Rate: |
39% - John Metchie/Robert Woods
33% - Nico Collins
32% - Tank Dell
31% - Dalton Schultz |
| Dell had a top-five average separation score (this data is all courtesy of the fantastic Fantasy Points Data team) on H-Break Routes. He's terrifying on the vertical plane and deadly breaking at the top of routes, so it's no surprise that he crushed on these routes. He ranked 85th in H-Break rate at the WR position. |
| Even after an encouraging 2023 debut, Bobby Slowik lost his job as offensive coordinator. What do we know about his replacement? Nick Caley worked with the New England Patriots as an offensive assistant as well as tight ends and fullbacks coach from 2015-2022. In 2023, Caley coached tight ends for the Rams, and he became L.A.'s pass game coordinator in 2024. |
| So, he saw firsthand what Sean McVay did with Kyren Williams and the run game transformation from outside zone-heavy scheming to more up-the-gut man/gap running. He also worked with Bill Belichick, another coach who used more power running. |
| The Texans added some massive linemen this offseason. From Round 2 tackle Aireontae Ersert to the free agent additions, the team has beefed up. And in perhaps the most perplexing move of Houston's offseason, the Texans traded a 2026 Round 3 pick in order to move up roughly 60 spots to grab RB Jo'Quavious "Woody" Marks. He'll be 25 years old as a rookie. Jarquez Hunter, Dylan Sampson , D.J. Giddens, Jordan James, and Jaydon Blue were all still on the board. Marks wasn't used much as a man/gap runner at all in college, but he was heavily utilized as an inside zone runner, and I thought he looked great navigating traffic with creativity and quick feet. His presumed value add is clearly as a passing downs back. Marks does weigh 207 pounds, though, and the Texans invested in him. Caley probably had something to do with that decision. Marks may be going completely overlooked amid a stacked rookie RB class. |
| I don't have anything to add as it relates to the pass-catchers, as we simply don't have any way of predicting Caley's impact. The circumstances were near league-worst for Stroud in 2024, and the O.C. was part of that. Hopefully, it's better in 2025. I'll keep a close eye on tendencies in the early going. The talent is certainly there. Jaylin Noel was one of my absolute favorite 2025 draft prospects at any position. Jayden Higgins is extremely talented, and Nico Collins' presence as a dominant X-receiver can free Higgins up to move around the formation and create mismatches. The sky is the limit with this personnel grouping, we'll see if Caley and the offensive line can provide the necessary infrastructure to reach such heights. |
| |
| If you want to watch film on the rookie RB class, check this thread out! |
| |
| | | | | UEFA Champions League Final | | UCL Today | Glory awaits either PSG or Inter at this year's UEFA Champions League Final! Don't miss the match this Saturday at 3 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | Your favorite crew is back for the UEFA Champions League Final this Saturday! Join them live at 1 PM ET on CBS Sports Golazo Network and streaming on Paramount+. Coverage continues at 1:30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+!
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
