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| Friday, May 23, 2025 |
| Heyyo! Happy Friday! Apologies for the delay. A lot has happened since my publication of the first part of this series, and I've ended up juggling several moving pieces! All good! The newsletter has just had to take a back seat. I never want to rush good work, especially during the offseason. |
| You might have to be patient with me at times this summer. I'll do my best to maintain transparent communication so that you know what to expect. I absolutely do value the FFT Newsletter and you as a reader, but my focus is going to be split at times as I put together multiple projects. |
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| A lot of cool content is coming your way soon! |
| Let's dive back into our discussion about new coaches in the NFL. In the most-recent newsletter, we covered the following coaching changes: |
| Kellen Moore departing as Eagles OC to become the head coach of the New Orleans SaintsKevin Patullo taking over in PhiladelphiaWhat worked for Liam Coen with the Bucs and how he might bring life to the Jacksonville JaguarsKlint Kubiak's potential impact on Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Kenneth WalkerBen Johnson moving on from the Lions to visualize a new-look Chicago Bears |
| We have even more to cover today! |
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| Who's new around the NFL in 2025? |
| Below is a helpful graphic that I pulled from this article on thehuddle.com. The coaches that have a zero next to their name and are highlighted are new hires. |
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| Here's who we're going to focus on in today's newsletter: |
| Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly, and the Las Vegas RaidersMike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels, and the New England PatriotsTommy Rees and the Cleveland BrownsJohn Morton and the Detroit Lions |
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| The new-look Las Vegas Raiders |
| I think that Geno Smith to Brock Bowers is going to be a special connection in 2025. Geno's anticipatory ability to throw with touch and timing feels like a perfect complement to Bowers. People have been throwing around the Puka Nacua comp for Bowers online lately, and in the same way that Matthew Stafford's anticipatory throwing unlocks Puka's elite target-earning ability, we could see something special in Vegas in 2025. |
| We're here to talk about coaching. I just did want to highlight Geno first, because Coach Carroll and Tom Brady decided to bring him in to steer this ship. Also, I wanted to make you aware of the QB series that I've been putting together on Twitter. The link above will take you to a thread where you can find film cut-ups for Geno throwing from different distances. In the same way, if you search "Jacob Gibbs Sam Darnold" or "Jacob Gibbs Jayden Daniels" on X, you can find cut-ups for probably whichever QB you are curious about! |
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| Carroll's Seahawks teams have leaned slightly run-heavy compared to the league average but been more-likely to pass when in scoring distance. A higher percentage of offensive touchdowns have come through the air for Carroll-coached teams, relative to league average. Of the past 10 Carroll-coached teams, seven produced 30 or more passing touchdowns. |
| Geno's best Fantasy season thus far came under Carroll in 2022. That performance, combined with five separate seasons from Russell Wilson, gives Carroll a 300+ Fantasy point scorer at QB in six of his past 10 seasons (Russ had another season with 299.4). I'm sure he's so proud of his Fantasy accolades. Only nine quarterbacks posted 300+ points in 2024. Only five hit that mark in 2023. It's pretty impressive that Carroll has hit that mark with such consistency. |
| It will be very interesting to see how the route concepts and target dispersal shakes out in Vegas. Surely, it will be Bowers featured and Jakobi Meyers and Jack Bech playing complementary roles. It's easy enough to divvy up targets on paper. But how will the players actually fit the route concepts? Carroll has traditionally pushed the boundaries of defenses with field-stretching threats like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and Kelly's offenses have also featured a vertical element as a key component -- whether with Jeremy Maclin at the pro level or Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State. Doug Baldwin had success working the short and intermediate areas of the field in Carroll's system, and the same can be said for Jordan Matthews with Kelly. I'm not so much worried about a lack of creativity in how to get the ball into Bowers' hands. |
| But who is the speed threat for this team? Maybe rookie Round 4 selection Dont'e Thornton is ready to contribute right away, but he was just a part-time player in college. Tre Tucker's play was largely uninspiring in 2024. This is the one aspect of the Raiders offense that I'm concerned about. Geno Smith is one of the best deep-ball passers in the league, but I'm not sure he alone is enough to threaten defenses in a way that will prevent opponents from loading the box. Ultimately, the success of this offense is predicated on Ashton Jeanty and the run game. |
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| My expectation is that Kelly and Jeanty will be an overwhelmingly competent combination in such a way that efficacy is no issue, even if opponents know to overplay the run. What Kelly did with Ohio State's run game last year was awesome, and I'm psyched to see him unlock more man/gap running opportunities for Jeanty. One potential concern I have is that we may be leaning on efficient play. The expectation, based on history of running backs selected where Jeanty was, should be that he will be fed as many touches as he can handle. And he's built for it. |
| I do think it's noteworthy, though, that Kelly and Carroll have a history of splitting backfields. Carroll had some absolute dogs in Seattle between MarShawn Lynch and Chris Carson. Neither topped a 70% snap rate in any single season. Kelly's tenure with the Eagles featured a myriad of backs filling specified roles and never topping a 70% snap rate in a season. Carroll's lead back never topped 50 targets in a season. Kelly fed Darren Sproles 80 targets in 2015, but DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy topped out at 54 as lead backs. Jeanty has the talent to buck the trend, but it's at least worth considering that we have yet to see what his usage will be under this coaching staff. The 2025 price tag is going to be a Round 1 Fantasy pick if you want to roster Jeanty. He could definitely pay it off. I'm excited for this offense and think it could come together in a fun and high-scoring way under the leadership of Carroll, Kelly, and Geno. There's no clear passing downs specialist on the RB depth chart, so maybe we just see Jeanty play on all three downs and handle 300+ touches. Lynch logged four 300+ touch seasons in Carroll's offense, and Carson saw that much volume once. |
| Drake Maye's new supporting cast |
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| The Patriots let Drake Maye start even without much support to offer him as a rookie, and the results were altogether encouraging. This offseason, New England has made a concentrated effort to improve Maye's supporting cast as he enters Year 2. Rookie Kyle Williams offers Maye a true separator with impressive game speed, while Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins provide some much-needed experience to Maye's WR room. TreVeyon Henderson projects as a strong contributor as both a pass-blocker and pass-catcher. And the offensive line is much better on paper. |
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| To bring it all together, the Pats employed the experience of Vrabel and McDaniels. I'm very curious what schematic results will come from this pairing. In Tennessee, Vrabel leaned heavily on outside zone. McDaniels' offenses have typically used a ton of man/gap concepts. Both Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson are better man/gap runners on paper, so that seems like the logical starting point for this run game. Both Vrabel and McDaniels have engineered highly-effective run games in the past. Both Moses and Bradbury have consistently logged better run-blocking PFF grades than pass-blocking grades, and in Will Campbell's best season (2023), he logged the eighth-best run-block grade out of 821 qualified linemen and ranked first in man/gap run blocking grade (that's cool! I didn't know PFF now offers scheme-specific grades. Time to fall down a rabbit-hole!). |
| New England could have a strong run game to lean on in 2025. That wasn't the case during Maye's rookie season. The Pats ranked 25th in rushing success rate on RB runs and 29th in EPA per RB rush. |
| For all the flak he caught as a head coach, McDaniels has proven capable of putting together competent offensive designs. His offenses ranked no worse than 16th in success rate across the 2020-22 seasons, including ranks of sixth, eighth, and first in rushing success rate. The wheels fell off in 2023 for the Jimmy Garoppolo-led Raiders. But overall, McDaniels has an encouraging track record. |
| Perhaps the most encouraging tendency that McDaniels brings is his propensity for hammering the RB position with targets. |
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| James White piled up 123 targets in 2018. He recorded three separate seasons with a target per route run rate above 28% under McDaniels' oversight. Alvin Kamara is the only other RB with more than two seasons (minimum 250 routes run) with a rate above 28% since 2010. Josh Jacobs' TPRR during his time with McDaniels is 14% higher than his career rate. |
| It's possible that McDaniels will instruct Maye to dump the ball off rather than scrambling so often. And while that may sound like a bad thing for Maye's Fantasy value, it could be offset by an increase in designed rushing. The Pats hardly used Maye this way during his rookie season. Any rushing he compiled was likely of his own volition as an escape artist and play extender. He was highly effective as a runner, though, which was also the case at North Carolina. |
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| Maybe McDaniels will expand on his designed running usage. Cam Newton's career-high designed run total came in 2020 with McDaniels coaching. He was 31 years old, but Newton rushed for 12 touchdowns. He ranked as Fantasy's QB15 in six-point per passing TD formats, even with abysmal passing efficiency. Newton ranked 30th (out of 38 qualifiers) in passer rating. He threw for eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions. |
| Tommy Rees and the Cleveland Browns |
| Rees was the tight ends coach and passing game specialist for the Browns last year. At the age of 25, Rees was hired as the quarterbacks coach for Notre Dame, and after three seasons in that role, he became the offensive coordinator. Rees spent three seasons as OC for Notre Dame before working under Nick Saban as OC at Alabama in 2023. I noticed a few things change dramatically with Rees instituted as OC at Bama: |
Outside zone running was scrapped. Rees almost completely ignored outside zone calls at Notre Dame, and that carried over to the 2023 Bama season. That was a significant change for Alabama from years prior.
The offense involved way more tight ends. In 2021 and 2022, Alabama's offense had three receivers on the field 77% and 72% of the time. That rate dropped to 56% in 2023, more in line with Notre Dame's rate (48%) under Rees. Running came first and foremost. Bama ran the ball 60% of the time on first downs under Reese, a significant increase. Jace McClellan was the lead back, this wasn't some powerhouse bully-ball Bama team. Alabama had just a 26.5% pass rate in the red zone in 2023, a bottom-10 rate among 133 CFB programs. |
| I think that we're going to see a lot of Quinshon Judkins. And keep an eye out for Harold Fannin Jr. playing a key role in an offense that features the tight end position. Michael Mayer was fed targets in the Tommy Rees (remember his background as a TE coach) offense. Mayer had a freaking 31% target share in 2022! Fannin may play a surprisingly relevant role as a rookie. And probably more noteworthy: I think that David Njoku seems like the clear best bet to lead the Browns in targets when healthy! I'm more inclined to draft him than Jerry Jeudy if forced to pick a Brown. |
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| John Morton takes over for Ben Johnson in Detroit |
| Morton has worked with some of the best names in the game -- Jon Gruden, Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, Norv Turner -- and he'll be reunited with Dan Campbell and a Detroit Lions organization that employed Morton as senior offense assistant in 2022. So, Morton has seen firsthand what Ben Johnson implemented in Detroit. It's tough to predict if or how he might change things given his limited experience as an OC. His background is as a wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator, and he has worked with plenty of coaches who use split backfields, so I'd be surprised if Morton gets his hands into any significant changes to one of the league's best run games. |
| We may see some new wrinkles in the pass game. Maybe Jameson Williams takes another step forward? I'll be tracking Detroit's personnel and play-calling tendencies in preseason and the early stages of the regular season and will update y'all in this space if I notice anything. |
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| I'll finish up this series on Wednesday of next week with the following new hires: |
| Brian Schottenheimer and the Dallas CowboysTanner Engstrand and the New York JetsJohn Grizzard and the Tampa Bay BuccaneersNick Caley and the Houston Texans |
| Here are links to the most recent podcast appearances that I was able to make: |
| Players who I am higher than consensus on for 2025 with the FFT crew |
| Dynasty rookie mock draft with the Draft Sharks crew |
| If you want to watch film on the rookie RB class, check this thread out! |
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