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| Tuesday, October 17, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| If you didn't get to watch the game last night, don't worry, it went pretty much how every Chargers game goes: Some crazy stuff happened and then the Chargers managed to find a way to lose. |
| The Chargers' loss actually ended up being a huge gain for one NFL fan who won nearly $200,000. The fan had a 10-team parlay in Week 6 and after nine of the picks hit on Sunday, the fan just needed the Cowboys to win for the parlay to hit and, well, that guy is now $200,000 richer. |
| Anyway, we have a big newsletter today: We'll be grading both teams from last night's game, plus we'll be looking at Prisco's Power Rankings and making some early Week 7 picks. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Early bets for Week 7 |
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| With Week 6 officially in the books, we decided to get an early jump on Week 7 today by revealing some of our best bets for the upcoming week of NFL action. |
| During today's episode, Katie Mox and Will Brinson were joined by SportsLine gambling gurus Emory Hunt and Alex "PropStarz" Selesnick. |
| The crew covered several of their favorite early bets for Week 7 and we're going to look at a couple of those below. |
| Brinson: Dolphins (+2.5) to cover against the Eagles. With the Eagles, Brinson is worried about the fact that right tackle Lane Johnson might not be playing due to an ankle injury he suffered on Sunday. "If you're 5-1 and your superstar right tackle is banged up, you probably need to err on the side of caution here [and hold him out]," Brinson said. "I love the Dolphins here."Hunt: Ravens (-3) cover against the Lions. Hunt thinks the Lions are going to have a tough time beating the Ravens and that's mostly due to the loss David Montgomery, who's not expected to play. "I feel like the Ravens are getting the Lions at the right time, because the questions for me come with Detroit's run game and health," Hunt said. "[If Montgomery is out], you put your offense in a one-dimensional situation against a team that can really get after the quarterback ... so I feel like this is the perfect spot to lay the points with Baltimore." |
| If you want to hear the rest of the props and early best bets for Week 7, you can do that by listening to the show here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Monday night grades after Cowboys' 20-17 win over the Chargers |
| Whenever the Chargers are playing, it's almost a guarantee that the game is going to go down to the wire and that's exactly what we got on Monday night. The Cowboys' 20-17 win wasn't sealed until Stephon Gilmore picked off Justin Herbert with just under 90 seconds left to play in the game. |
| Here are our grades from the game: |
| COWBOYS GRADE: B+ |
| Dak is back. After struggling last week against the 49ers, Prescott rebounded with a huge night against the Chargers. Not only did he throw for 272 yards and a TD, but he also converted a fourth-and-1 with a 22-yard scoring run in the first half. The Cowboys offense wasn't perfect, but it was able to produce multiple big plays, including three third-down conversions that came on third-and-9 or longer. (Two of those came on the drive that led to Brandon Aubrey's game-winning field goal.) CeeDee Lamb likely won't be complaining about the team's offensive identity this week after catching seven passes for 117 yards. On the defensive side of the ball, the Cowboys slowed down Justin Herbert and kept Austin Ekeler in check. This was a strong win against a good opponent, and it should wipe some of the bad taste out of the Cowboys' mouth following their 42-10 loss to the 49ers in Week 5. |
| Cowboys note |
| Cowboys know how to bounce back. If you're looking for an easy way to make money, here's a tip: Always bet on the Cowboys to win after a loss. After losing to the 49ers in Week 5, the Cowboys bounced back with a win over the Chargers last night. I'm only pointing that out because in their last eight games after a loss, the Cowboys are now 8-0. Not only have they won eight straight, but they've been dominant, with their wins coming by an average of 17.1 points per game. |
| CHARGERS GRADE: B- |
| The Chargers had a chance to win this game, but they couldn't come up with any big plays when they were needed the most. Offensively, they got inside of the Cowboys' 10-yard line a total of three times in the second half, but they were only able to get one touchdown out of it. Justin Herbert also struggled some with his accuracy. Not only did he overthrow multiple receivers, including a pass that would have gone for a huge gain to a wide open Keenan Allen, but he also threw an interception with 90 seconds left that iced the win for Dallas. The Chargers defense looked good at times, but the unit also got burnt badly on a few key plays. It gave up a 18-yard TD run on fourth-and-1 in the first half and then followed that up by surrendering a 60-yard pass on a Dallas third-and-11 in the second half. The Chargers won't have any time to wallow in this loss because they have to turn around and play on the road against the Chiefs next week. |
| Chargers note |
| Chargers can't win close games. With their 20-17 loss to the Cowboys, the Chargers have now lost 12 games by three points or less since the start of the 2020 season, which is the most in the NFL over that span. The Chargers had been tied with the Bengals and Broncos in that category, but they now hold the title alone by picking up another close loss last night. |
| If you want to check out more of our takeaways from the game, be sure to click here. |
| 3. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 7 |
| With the NFL's final two undefeated teams both going down on Sunday, Prisco had to do some major reshuffling at the top of his power rankings. The top-five teams are the same, but all five teams are in a completely different spot than they were last week. |
| Here's a look at Prisco's top five heading into Week 7: |
Chiefs (Up two spots from last week) Dolphins (Up two spots from last week)Lions (Up two spots from last week)49ers (Down three spots from last week)
Eagles (Down three spots from last week) |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings: |
The biggest jump this week went to the New York Jets. After watching them hand the Eagles their first loss of the season, Prisco moved the Jets up 10 spots from 24th to 14th. As for the Browns, they moved up six spots for beating the 49ers (16th to 10th). In the NFC, the biggest jump went to the Rams. Prisco was so impressed with their 26-9 win over the Cardinals that he moved up nine spots from 21st to 12th. The biggest tumble in this week's rankings went to the Buccaneers. For some reason, Pete had them ranked at sixth last week, which was way too high. After watching them get beat by the Lions, Prisco knocked them down eight spots to 14th. That's probably still too high. Now, let's talk about the worst team in the NFL. There is only one winless team in the NFL -- the Carolina Panthers -- and that team is at the bottom of the Power Rankings. I'm assuming that Pete will be keeping them there until they actually win a game.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 7 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
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| 4. Breech's Week 7 picks: Dolphins top Eagles in thriller |
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| It's Tuesday, which can only mean one thing around these parts: It's time for my weekly picks. |
| This is the part of the newsletter where I give you three picks for the upcoming week and the good news is that I think you can trust my picks this week becuse the Titans aren't playing. In what has simply become a cruel joke, I'm 0-6 picking Titans games straight-up on the season, but 58-29 picking everyone else. |
| With that in mind, here are three of my picks for Week 7. |
| Detroit (5-1) at Baltimore (4-2): Jared Goff has been so good this season that I'm starting to think that Goff might actually just be Tom Brady in disguise. I don't think the Ravens secondary has truly been tested this year and we'll find out this week just how good they really are. I think they're good, but I think Goff is better. PICK: Lions 27-24 over Ravens. Atlanta (3-3) at Tampa Bay (3-2): Whenever the Falcons are playing, I ask myself two questions: Is Desmond Ridder starting? Is this game on the road? If the answer to both of those questions is yes, then I automatically pick against the Falcons. Ridder has never won a road game in his NFL career (0-4) and I don't think he'll be getting his first one this week. PICK: Buccaneers 20-16 over Falcons. Miami (5-1) at Philadelphia (5-1): I think this game is going to be a shootout and as a general rule, I never pick against the highest-scoring team in the NFL when I'm trying to predict the winner of a shootout. In related news, the Dolphins are the highest-scoring team in the NFL. PICK: Dolphins 34-27 over Eagles. |
| To check out the rest of my picks for Week 7, be sure to click here. |
| 5. NFL trade deadline: Three deals that need to happen |
| Although it feels like the season just started, the NFL trade deadline is already around the corner. This year's deadline is on Halloween, which means it's exactly two weeks from today. |
| To get you pumped for the deadline, Cody Benjamin came up with a few trades that he'd like to see go down. Let's take a look. |
Buccaneers acquire Derrick Henry
Bucs get: Derrick Henry
Titans get: 2024 third-round pick
Verdict: "The Buccaneers are feisty this year, but they're also one of the game's worst rushing teams, which is a problem when you lean so much on ball-control and defense. The bulldozing Henry is on an expiring deal for a stumbling Titans franchise." |
Cowboys acquire Courtland Sutton
Cowboys get: Courtland Sutton
Broncos get: 2024 third-round pick
Verdict: "Dallas already acquired a running mate for CeeDee Lamb this offseason in Brandin Cooks, but the latter's been very quiet during the Cowboys' uneven 3-2 start. Sutton is a proven possession target who should be for sale in Denver, where Sean Payton could use all the draft capital he can get." |
49ers acquire Mecole Hardman
49ers get: Mecole Hardman
Jets get: 2024 seventh-round pick
Verdict: "A nonfactor in New York despite signing early in free agency, the ex-Chiefs receiver probably covets a return to K.C., where Andy Reid knows how to deploy him as a utility man, but how about going to San Francisco instead?" |
| Cody actually proposed a total of 15 trades and if you want to see all of them, be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Quarterbacks around the league are banged up |
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| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Raiders at Bears: Fields and Garoppolo could both miss game. The Bears quarterback injured his thumb on Sunday and that injury is expected to keep him out of this week's game against the Raiders, coach Matt Eberflus said on Monday. You can read more about Field's injury here. On the Raiders' end, Jimmy Garoppolo could also miss the game after suffering a back injury on Sunday. Josh McDaniels said this week that Garoppolo avoided serious injury, but he's unsure right now if the QB will be able to play this week.Ryan Tannehill has a bad ankle sprain. The Titans QB is dealing with a high-ankle sprain . Tannehill missed five games last year due to a similar injury and there's a good chance he'll also miss some time this year. The good news for the Titans is that they have a bye this week to get things figured out. Anthony Richardson almost certainly done for the year. The Colts QB missed Week 6 with a shoulder injury and we mentioned yesterday that he was contemplating surgery that would end his season. Colts owner Jim Irsay told ESPN on Monday that Richardson will "probably" end up missing the season, which seems to mean he'll be undergoing the surgery. With Richardson out, that means the Colts will be turning to Gardner Minshew at QB.
Frank Reich gives up play-calling duties. The Panthers coach has decided that he's no longer going to be calling the offensive plays. Starting this week, Reich will be turning the job over to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. The first-year OC has never called plays during a regular-season game, but he did call the plays during the second half of each preseason game, according to ESPN.com. David Montgomery will likely miss a few games. The Lions running back, who currently looks like one of the best free agent signings of the offseason, will likely miss a game or two after suffering a rib injury on Sunday. Dan Campbell said Monday that the injury will sideline Montgomery for "a little bit."
Antonio Brown arrested in Florida. Apparently, the former NFL star hasn't been paying his child support. You can read all the details here. |
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