| | Dear Readers,
French President Emmanuel Macron took a gamble - and lost, as expected. In the first round of the early parliamentary elections on Sunday, his centrist party only came third. Instead of building stable majorities to support him, Macron will now have to face a prime minister who is going to make his political life difficult and France almost ungovernable for the remaining three years of his presidency.
This result takes Europe to the edge of the abyss. Regardless of whether the future prime minister comes from the far-right camp of Rassemblement National (RN) or the very diverse left-wing alliance of the Nouveau Front Populaire, Macron is unlikely to be able to govern France from a position of power and influence. His country will no longer be a driving force behind the EU.
And it could get even worse. If the RN under Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella succeeds in winning an absolute majority of seats in the National Assembly, the entire EU will be on the brink of collapse. The right-wing populists have repeatedly declared that they want to lead France out of the EU. And they will find a powerful ally in the Italian head of government Giorgia Meloni. Since Sunday, Europe's death knell has been ringing louder than ever. "The fear that the RN could be in a position to govern or paralyse France and thus slowly but surely destroy the EU is real," said René Repasi, Chairman of the European SPD.
In the run-off election next Sunday, much will now depend on whether Macron's liberal candidates, in a curious alliance with the those of the colourful left-wing alliance, will succeed in preventing a clean sweep, i.e. an absolute majority for the RN, in the 501 constituencies that have not yet been decided. This will certainly involve some hard bargaining.
But even then, conditions are likely to remain precarious. They provide a foretaste of what is to come in the autumn, in the eastern German states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg if it turns out that the only way to prevent the far-right AfD from entering government is for the CDU to enter a coalition with the left-wing Die Linke and/or with Sahra Wagenknecht's Kremlin party BSW. These are truly bleak prospects.
The EU has made many mistakes. Migration, social decline, a fall in real wages and excessive bureaucracy are frustrating voters, and there have already been more than enough warning shots. The future Commission must finally get its policy back on track - for the good of EU citizens. Only then can Europe still be saved and right-wing populism held in check.
Stay with us and the EU.
Yours
Dr. Jörg Köpke |
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| | | | "The fear is real": French President Emmanuel Macron's bitter election defeat could lead to the end of the EU. |
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| | | | Appointments to EU Top Jobs: What Happens Next? |
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| From 6 to 9 June, the European Parliament was re-elected for the 2024-2029 legislative period. On 27 June, the Heads of State and Government nominated Ursula von der Leyen (Conservatives, EPP) for a further term as President of the European Commission, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa (Social Democrats, S&D) as President of the European Council and the current Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Liberals, Renew) as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs. What happens next in the reorganisation of EU institutions and the appointment of EU leaders?
Timeline: 16 July: Constituent sitting of the European Parliament, election of the Bureau 2nd Half of July: Election of the Commission President by the European Parliament Summer: Selection of the other Commission members Autumn: Hearings of the Commissioners-designate by the European Parliament; European Parliament approves the College of Commissioners, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and the other Commission members; subsequent appointment by the European Council 1 December: Start of the term of office of the new President of the European Council Procedure: European Parliament After the European elections, the 720 MEPs (Germany: 96, France: 81, Italy: 76, Spain: 61, Poland: 53) form into political groups based on their respective political convictions. A political group must consist of at least 23 MEPs from at least seven EU Member States. At the constituent meeting on 16 July, the MPs elect the Parliament’s Bureau, which is responsible for the organisation of parliamentary work. It consists of a President, 14 Vice-Presidents and five Quaestors. In addition, they vote on the structure, composition and chairmanship of parliamentary committees which are responsible for specific topics and carry out the actual legislative work. MEPs must also decide which of the EU legislative proposals, unable to be finalised in the previous legislative period, will continue to be pursued. New legislative initiatives must first be proposed by the newly elected European Commission. European Council The European Council consists of the Heads of State and Government of the EU Member States as well as its President and the President of the European Commission. It determines the "broad outline" of the European Union's general political objectives and priorities, but - unlike the EU Council of Ministers - is not directly involved in EU legislation. The President of the European Council prepares and chairs its meetings. The nominee for this post, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, must be elected by a reinforced qualified majority - at least 20 EU Member States representing at least 65% of the EU population - for a term of office of two and a half years, starting on 1 December. European Commission and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs The European Council nominates the candidate for President of the European Commission by reinforced qualified majority. The result of the European Parliament elections must be taken into account when selecting candidates. Ursula von der Leyen's nomination on 27 June fulfils this requirement as she belongs to the conservative EPP, which is the largest group in the new European Parliament. She must now be elected Commission President by a majority of the MEPs in the European Parliament. If she were to fall short of the required majority in this vote, which is to take place in the second half of July, the European Council would have to propose a new candidate to the European Parliament, again by reinforced qualified majority, within one month. The new candidate’s election would also require an absolute majority of the MEPs in the European Parliament.
The newly elected President of the Commission draws up a list of candidates for the other members of the European Commission, in agreement with the EU Council of Ministers. Although each EU Member State nominates a candidate, they must exercise their duties with complete independence. This also includes the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. He is Vice-President of the European Commission and chairs the EU Foreign Affairs Council. As such, he develops proposals for the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy and Common Security and Defence Policy, which he carries out on behalf of the EU Council of Ministers. The Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who was nominated as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs on 27 June, must be appointed by the European Council with a reinforced qualified majority and with the consent of the President-elect of the European Commission.
The European Parliament then organises hearings of the Commissioners-designate so that the members of the relevant parliamentary committees can assess their suitability for the proposed specialist portfolios. The President of the Commission, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and the other members of the European Commission will then have to face a vote of approval by the European Parliament, which is expected in the autumn. On that basis, the European Commission is finally appointed by a reinforced qualified majority of the European Council for a five-year term of office.
Dr. Götz Reichert, LL.M.
Head of Division |
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| | | | | | Latest EU Proposals in Focus |
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| | Digitalisation|New Technologies |
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| More Opportunities for Digital Education
The Commission plans to launch the seventh round of tendering for the DIGITAL Europe programme on 5 July 2024. The new call supports Bachelor, Master and PhD programmes as well as self-standing modules in key digital areas such as virtual worlds, edge computing, quantum computing, photonics, robotics and automation. In addition, interdisciplinary programmes for green digital skills in areas such as transport, renewable energies and waste management are also being promoted. The aim is to promote excellence at universities and increase the capacity for advanced digital skills in Europe. The tender will begin the day before, on 4 July, and has a total budget of 55 million euros. Further information is available here; interested parties can register here for the virtual event.
High-value Datasets for the Promotion of AI now available
The Commission wants to further promote the provision of high-value public datasets. To this end, new rules came into force in mid-June concerning so-called "high-value datasets" that will soon result in new datasets in the categories of geospatial, Earth observation and the environment, meteorology, statistics, companies and mobility. This initiative, which stems from the Open Data Directive, has the potential to create significant social and economic benefits by way of innovative products and services in the field of artificial intelligence. For example, farms could use satellite images, weather data and soil information to practise precision agriculture and thus increase yields. The official European data portal currently contains more than 1.7 million datasets from EU institutions and Member States. The new high-value datasets will be available free of charge in machine-readable form and via a programming interface. Further information on access to this open data is available here.
New Phase of EU Connectivity Goals
Up until 31 July 2024, the Commission is inviting experienced players in the field of 5G technologies to participate in the next phase of the European 5G Observatory "Path to the Digital Decade". The initiative, which has been reporting on progress in the rollout of 5G networks since 2018 and serves as a source of information on 5G products and services, supports the EU's connectivity targets for 2030. The Observatory will continue to collect data from the 27 EU countries, set appropriate targets and monitor the latest developments in advanced 5G technologies. Interested parties are invited to tender for the newly advertised study by the end of July in order to support the Commission in implementing the next phase. Further information is available here. |
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| | | | | | The EU Commission asks decision-makers and interested parties from civil society for their opinion on European policy proposals. Here is our short-list of the most important consultations: |
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| | Financial Markets|Information Technology |
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| Artificial intelligence: Opportunities and Risks for the Financial Services Sector
On 18 June 2024, the EU Commission launched a Consultation on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the financial services sector. It is particularly relevant for companies in the sector, such as banks, insurance companies and asset managers, but also for companies that develop AI applications for the financial services sector or are planning to do so. The Commission is using the consultation to gather information on the development and use of AI in the financial services sector and on the opportunities and risks associated with the use of AI. It is also focussing on specific AI applications in the financial sector and its sub-sectors. Another section of the consultation is dedicated to questions relating to the recently adopted EU Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act), which is expected to come into force in July 2024. The focus here is on the impact of the AI Act on the financial services sector. In particular, the Commission wants to examine whether the sector needs assistance - for example in the form of guidelines - with the implementation of the AI Act, especially in relation to high-risk applications. Based on the consultation results, the Commission is not currently intending to take specific measures that could slow down the potential for AI innovation in the financial sector or lead to a duplication of requirements.
The submission period for opinions ends on 13 September 2024.
Go to Consultation |
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| | | | | Digital Europe: Interim Evaluation of the EU Funding Programme
On 27 June 2024, the EU Commission launched a Consultation on the EU funding programme “Digital Europe”.. The programme aims to facilitate access to digital technologies for companies, citizens and public administrations. It has a budget of more than € 7.9 billion and supports projects in the fields of artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and supercomputing, among others. The Commission is using the Consultation to carry out an interim evaluation of whether the funding programme is achieving its objectives four years after it was launched. It is aimed in particular at small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), non-governmental organisations, universities, social partners, public authorities and citizens.
The submission period for opinions ends on 20 September 2024.
Go to Consultation
NIS 2 Directive: Definition of Requirements for Risk Management
The new EU Directive on network and information security [(EU) 2022/2555, NIS 2 Directive, see cepAdhoc] has been in the EU Official Journal since the end of 2022. It must be transposed into national law by the Member States by October 2024. The Directive requires organisations affected by the Directive to take risk management measures to ensure the security of their network and information systems. It also allows the EU Commission to define specific "technical and methodological requirements" for these risk management measures for a group of organisations - e.g. DNS providers, cloud computing providers, and providers of online marketplaces and online search engines. This will be effected by 17 October 2024 by means of an implementing act. The Commission has now published a draft of the implementing act and is using the Consultation to gather opinions on its amendment proposals.
The submission period for opinions ends on 25 July 2024.
Go to Consultation |
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| | | | | Aid Guidelines for Land and Multimodal Transport
The Commission wants to revise the rules on state aid for land transport and multimodal transport. The new state aid guidelines for land and multimodal transport (LMTG) will replace the guidelines for state aid to railway companies and will be supplemented by the revised Transport Block Exemption Regulation (TBER). The Consultation is intended to enable all citizens and stakeholders - such as transport and logistics companies, infrastructure operators and associations - to comment on the Commission's plans.
The submission period for opinions ends on 20 September 2024.
Go to Consultation |
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| | | | | 11 July
Luxembourg
The European Court of Justice (CJEU) will rule, in the Meta Platforms Ireland case (C-757/22), on whether consumer associations such as the applicant, the Federation of German Consumer Organisations (vzbv), can sue for the (mere) breach of information obligations under the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) without a mandate from a data subject. According to Art. 80 (2) GDPR, a representative action can also be brought without a mandate and independently of the infringement of specific rights of a data subject if the Member States allow this in their national law and certain other conditions are met. This includes the fact that, in the opinion of the applicant association, an infringement of the data subject’s rights under the GDPR must have occurred "as a result of processing". The CJEU must now decide on the interpretation of this term, or more precisely, on whether and when an infringement of the data subject’s rights, due to a breach of GDPR information obligations, occurs "as a result of processing". The EU Advocate General, which the CJEU often follows, has affirmed the right of associations to bring an action, even in the case of a mere breach of GDPR information obligations, where the association bringing the action is objecting to data processing that is based on consent. In this case, the transparent provision of information to the data subject is a prerequisite for the lawfulness of processing. If the CJEU confirms that a breach of GDPR information obligations falls within the scope of Art. 80 (2) GDPR, companies that rely on the legal basis of consent must increasingly expect to be sued by associations for failing to provide data subjects sufficiently transparent information.
16 - 19 July
Strasbourg
Constituent plenary sitting of the European Parliament. The plenary sitting on 16 July marks the official opening of the 10th legislative period. Main points among others: Inauguration of the newly elected MEPs, election of the President of the European Parliament and his/her deputy as well as the Quaestors, presentation of the political programme for the legislative period by Ursula von der Leyen as nominated candidate for the Commission Presidency proposed by the European Council, election of the Commission President.
16 July
Brussels
Meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council. Among other things, it is about the current legislative proposals on financial services.
17 July
Luxembourg
The European Court of Justice (CJEU) rules on whether the Commission was right to recognise Bytedance Ltd, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, as a "gatekeeper" within the meaning of the EC Treaty. Digital Markets Act (DMA) (Case T-1077/23). Bytedance filed an action against this decision in November, based on five grounds. Among other things, the Commission did not correctly apply the DMA's gatekeeper criteria to the facts of the case and wrongly failed to recognise evidence provided by Bytedance that TikTok was not an important gateway. The decision also infringes the rights of the defence and breaches the principles of good administration and equal rights as well as the duty to state reasons. An application for interim relief previously failed because, in the view of the European Court, Bytedance did not demonstrate the urgency required in this regard. Designation as a gatekeeper is a prerequisite for the DMA’s strict behavioural, interoperability and information obligations to apply to Bytedance.
18 July
Strasbourg
First opportunity to elect the new Commission Presidency. The European Parliament (EP) votes on whether Ursula von der Leyen will be elected for a second term as President of the European Commission.
22 - 25 July
Strasbourg
The parliamentary committees in the European Parliament elect their respective chairs (chair and deputy chair). |
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| | | | | | The cepDossier aims to draw attention to important EU legislative proposals in a more concise form than a Study or PolicyBrief. Current proposals are reported and briefly summarised. The aim is to achieve even faster delivery of interest-driven information that may be of relevance to sectors and stakeholders. |
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| | | Small Investor Strategy: Move away from New Partial Commission Bans
On 24 May 2023, the Commission presented a whole package of regulatory measures as part of its EU retail investor strategy with the aim of promoting the participation of retail investors in the capital markets, strengthening their position in the investment process and ensuring better and fairer market outcomes (see Press release). cep has analysed the proposals in more detail in a Study (see cepStudy). Following the European Parliament's position on the retail investor strategy on 23 June 2024, the Council adopted a Mandate for negotiations on 12 June 2024 . In particular, it opposes the introduction of new partial commission bans and is in favour of a new supervisory instrument to review the price-performance ratio of investment products. A cepDossier briefly presents the Council's key positions and compares them with the Commission's original proposals.
Go to cepDossier 5/2024 (in German). |
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| | | | | | cepAdhoc: European Elections: Shift to the Right Plunges EU into a Fight for Survival |
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| | | The European elections have deeply shaken the EU, especially Germany and France. While the traffic-light party in Germany suffered massive losses, Emmanuel Macron goes so far as to call new elections in France. Two serious government crises in the largest Member States are plunging the EU into a political fight for survival. This is the conclusion of an election analysis by the Centre for European Policy Network.
Go to cepAdhoc |
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| | | | cepStudy: Survey by cep and EY: Companies Demand more Legal Certainty for Handling Data |
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| | | Whether for data exchange, cloud services or data flows to the USA, the EU wants to create a legal framework for handling data with a torrent of new laws. The regulatory frenzy is fuelling massive uncertainty among companies. This is the result of a survey of 1,000 companies commissioned by the Centre for European Policy and the management consultancy EY.
Go to cepStudy |
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| | | | cepStudy: Who is Gonna Win the European Championship? |
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| | | The transfer of football players within the EU market is becoming increasingly important. National players who play for clubs in other EU countries now account for around 35% of the total market value of national teams across the EU - 7 percent more than ten years ago. This is the conclusion of a study by the Centrum für Europäische Politik.
Go to cepStudy |
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| | | | cepPolicyBrief: Combined Freight Transport |
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| | | Rail or ship plus lorry: Combined freight transport (CT) is becoming increasingly important in terms of supply chains and sustainability. The Commission therefore wants to improve the framework conditions. However, as well as positive approaches, the Centre for European Policy finds considerable room for improvement.
Go to cepPolicyBrief |
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| | | | cepPolicyBrief: Digital Networks |
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| | | Whether for artificial intelligence, virtual worlds or transport of the future, state-of-the-art network infrastructure is essential. The Commission has summarised ideas for improved connectivity in a White Paper. The Centrum für Europäische Politik sees some good ideas in this - but also finds hallmarks of a planned economy.
Go to cepPolicyBrief |
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| | | | | Dear Readers,
There is a French proverb that says: "Il vaut mieux prévenir que guérir" (Prevention is better than cure). May the poison chalice of oppression and right-wing populism pass France and Europe by.
Yours
Dr. Jörg Köpke |
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