Capitol View for November 7

Good morning. Never a dull moment, Minnesota.

Of course Minnesota voters would go there: They set up a tied Minnesota House heading into 2025 on top of a nearly-knotted Senate. There are 201 seats in the Minnesota Legislature and, as it stands , there will be 101 DFLers and 100 Republicans in them next session. That’s as close as you can get. We’re not entirely convinced it will remain that way, though. There could be a party defection if either side can pull it off. And an ongoing criminal case and ethics matter involving a DFL senator could put the Senate in a temporary tie as well if that lawmaker departs. Gov. Tim Walz, defeated in his bid to become vice president, has two years remaining on his term. He made his way back to Minnesota last night.

A tie is rare but not unheard of. Dana Ferguson dove into the MPR News archives to bring us some color and sound from the last time it happened in 1979. Listen to her piece this morning. Tom Scheck came out of politics-reporting-team retirement to assist in the story. He was a Philadelphia-area youngster at the time. Politics editor Brian Bakst was toddling around southeastern Wisconsin. In other words, there’s not a ton of institutional memory. So if you were there and have memories, let Dana know! Hit her up at [email protected].

As the likelihood of a House tie set in, the DFL and Republican leaders said they were already considering how to make it work. There would have to be a power sharing agreement because there can only be a single speaker and it takes 68 votes to pass any bill. Ellie Roth and Dana Ferguson went to back-to-back news conferences yesterday where there were early pledges of cooperation by necessity. Current DFL House Speaker Melissa Hortman likened it to a coin flip that ended up on its side. Republican House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth celebrated the GOP’s ability to break up the DFL’s total Capitol power by winning three seats to pull the chamber into a 67-67 tie. Demuth told reporters yesterday that it brings balance to the Legislature. “This is the opportunity for us to work together with our colleagues, the Democrats across the aisle, and find ways to best serve Minnesotans,” Demuth said. There are two recounts in races narrowly led by Democratic Reps. Dan Wolgamott of St. Cloud and Brad Tabke of Shakopee that still must play out.

Some other notable Minnesota House outcomes:

Republicans now control every House seat on the Iron Range, a former DFL power base. Outside of two Duluth districts and a district in the Moorhead area, Republicans hold every seat north of St. Cloud.

Similarly, outside of a cluster of Rochester-area seats that the DFL retained, southern Minnesota is now entirely Republican.

Forty-five House candidates won with 70 percent of the vote or more — 25 DFLers and 20 Republicans. Only 12 winners had between 50 and 52 percent of the vote. Two apparent victors – subject to recounts — were held just under 50 percent due to write-ins. The upshot is a shrinking number of districts are actually competitive.

Only one incumbent lost: DFL Rep. Jeff Brand of St. Peter, who has served two non-consecutive terms and has now twice fallen in presidential years. Republican Erica Schwartz will replace him. The two other seats to flip were open due to retirements by DFL legislators on the Iron Range and in Winona.

In the presidential race, the ultimate outcome wasn’t as tight as the polls had forecast and the race call came much earlier in the week than some anticipated. Democratic nominee Kamala Harris called Republican President-elect Donald Trump yesterday to concede and then the vice president spoke to supporters at Howard University . Harris urged dispirited backers not to give up the fight but to acknowledge the loss and aid in a peaceful transfer of power. Democratic President Joe Biden also called Trump and invited him to the White House. Trump laid low yesterday but acknowledged the gestures in written statements. He’s busy now planning for the transition. Expect some leaders from the neighborhood, possibly North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgam, to end up in Trump’s cabinet for a second, nonconsecutive term.

Trump wasn’t the only Republican to make a political comeback. Kirsti Marohn reports that former Minnesota Republican Party Chair Jennifer Carnahan made her way back into politics successfully. Carnahan, who resigned her party post in 2021 under pressure, won a race to be mayor of the cabin-country city of Nisswa. She defeated the sitting mayor.

Gov. Tim Walz didn’t get a new job but will still have his current one to fall back on. Walz was in Washington for the Harris speech yesterday. The vice presidential nominee didn’t speak at the event or to reporters. The second-term governor was due to return home Wednesday night. We expect we’ll hear from him in the days ahead on the new dynamic at Minnesota’s Capitol and what comes next for him. Maybe he’ll share some stories about his abbreviated turn on the big stage. Minnesota will remain a state that sent two to the vice presidency but never anyone to the Oval Office.

Turnout for the 2024 election here in Minnesota was lower than in 2020. Unofficial statistics are showing about a 76 percent turnout, down from near 80 percent four years ago. Secretary of State Steve Simon says that’s on par with turnout patterns nationwide, which was down, and believes there’s still hope for Minnesota to qualify as the No. 1 state in voter turnout. “We had really low drama yesterday,” Simon said. “We didn’t have some of the things that unfortunately other states had yesterday by way of threats, harassment, intimidation, threats and the like. We did not have that in Minnesota. It’s a good thing.”

One thing that passed comfortably Tuesday night was the constitutional amendment extending the distribution of state lottery proceeds. Dan Kraker reports that amendment promoters held it up as an area where Minnesotans agree: the great outdoors are part of Minnesota’s fiber, regardless of political party. The fund was first established in 1988 and had been re-upped once before.

Minnesota native Tim Sheehy defeated a three-term incumbent to flip a Montana U.S. Senate seat red. Sheehy, who moved to Montana 10 years ago, bolsters the GOP’s new Senate majority. He defeated incumbent Democrat Jon Tester in a race with record-setting spending on both sides. More than $200 million was spent in the race, which equated to about $500 per active voter. That’s a record on a per-voter basis. Montana’s political profile has changed dramatically since Tester’s first election, shifting from a purple state that traditionally sent a mix of Republicans and Democrats to higher offices to one where partisan divisions rule and the GOP enjoys a supermajority in the Montana Legislature. Cathy Wurzer spoke to Montana Public Radio reporter Shaylee Ragar about the race. Ragar said that while it used to be important to voters to elect a native Montanan to office, that idea seems to be shifting. “We’re seeing a lot of new residents from outside the state and I think they don’t appreciate the rhetoric from Democrats like John Tester who say, ‘We don’t want rich outsiders to come and change our state,’” Ragar said. “I think there are some new residents who take that to heart.”