Brace yourself for an unpredictable session that starts with threats of a shutdown and could end with the same. Tuesday’s opening day is immovable. But how much will happen is anybody’s guess. Barring a late-breaking agreement in the House, Democrats might sit out the first day in an effort to deprive narrowly advantaged Republicans from settling into a position of control by a single seat. There was a ceremony Sunday for an early swearing in of Democratic House members. They say it has happened before and is "legally permissible." Republicans dispute that and derided the ceremony as just the latest "lawless antics."
In the Senate, there’s a 33-33 tie and a new power-sharing deal to allow for basic organization. Two special elections are on tap that could alter the dynamics a bit, but a House election contest in the closest race of the year could just as well put things back in limbo. It’s all foreboding for a session where lawmakers must adopt a new two-year budget or risk closure of government agencies and services come July 1. Talk of tackling fraud in programs is also high on the list and previously approved programs for paid family and medical leave as well as for legalized marijuana are sure to be on the table for adjustments. A year-delayed construction projects package is also in the mix. Discussions of energy policy remain at the forefront as do state policies on reproductive health, policing and student achievement. The session has to end May 19, but there’s always the possibility of a special session that drags into summer.
So how did we arrive at this moment where the impasse is evident at the outset? An election that delivered a 67-67 House followed by two months of post-election litigation that left one DFL-won seat empty and another in the crosshairs of Republicans who say they might refuse to seat the certified winner. Dana Ferguson did a nice job recapping the state of political paralysis for a national audience yesterday. There were also developments galore last week, including Friday when state DFL Sen. Nicole Mitchell moved to postpone a criminal trial that is supposed to happen yet in January. A judge will weigh that request — along with one from prosecutors seeking a speedy trial of the Woodbury lawmaker on a felony burglary charge — during a hearing on Tuesday. Mitchell was given permission to appear at that hearing via Zoom from her Capitol office. Dana and Clay Masters have more on that side of things, which is threatening to upend a delicate dance in the Senate by leaders to enter the session on a note of harmony in contrast to the choir of chaos in the other body.
That harmony showed through a bit Sunday night when Senate leaders Erin Murphy of the DFL and Mark Johnson of the GOP announced their deal. It involves co-presiding officers and a switch-off between the parties convening floor sessions. All committees will have equal party membership and joint chairs, also with some form of rotating gavels decided by each panel. The agreement will be binding until there are 34 votes — one more than half of the full chamber — to end it. That presumably would be after one party gains a clear majority, which could come through elections, a party switch or some bipartisan coalition seeking to change course.
A reminder that when the Legislature convenes at noon Tuesday, the two presiding officers won’t be members of either chamber. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan will be in the chair in the Senate until the members get organized and elect presiding officers. Secretary of State Steve Simon has those duties in the House. Both are Democrats. Already that appears as though it could matter because Simon has informed caucus leaders that he won’t let the officer election occur unless there are 68 House members present. Republicans have 67 to the DFL’s 66. DFL leaders say they might boycott if they don’t get assurances that Republicans won’t use a temporary edge to cement a control arrangement that would be in place for two years, and also a pledge that they won’t refuse to seat DFL Rep. Brad Tabke if a judge rules his election was valid. Simon’s reading of a quorum was conveyed in a letter Friday and disputed by Republicans, who argue that an empty seat means the House is a 133-person body at the beginning and therefore needs just 67 members to conduct business. The state Republican Party is holding a press conference this morning to discuss recall petitions they plan to file against non-present legislators. The recall process can be long, has a court component and a high burden, so don’t expect it to yield any sudden resolution.
To add to the week’s fun, there is a primary in the Senate District 60 special election on Tuesday featuring seven DFLers and two Republicans. Tune into MPR News this afternoon for a story featuring all of them, at least their voices. The winner on each side advances to a Jan. 28 special election for a Minneapolis district where the DFL has had a virtual lock. Brian went back to the 1970s, when the Senate started using party designation, and can’t find an instance where Republicans held the area at the core of the district (redistricting has changed the district’s shape and number over the decades). A House special election for that empty Roseville/Shoreview seat didn’t require a primary but that one is tied up in court. Republicans and an aligned group are challenging the timing of the special election that was called in late December prior to the seat technically coming empty. The Minnesota Supreme Court will hold oral arguments Wednesday on the petition, although final written filings are now in.
With all the power jockeying, it’s easy to overlook the meat-and-potatoes job of the session is to enact a new two-year budget. As we’ve discussed before, the coming budget is near certain to be smaller than the existing budget because many components of the last budget were one-time expenses, in part because some were financed using pandemic-era federal aid that has now dried up. Gov. Tim Walz will start the budget bidding as soon as this week when his team releases a comprehensive proposal. The final 2024 budget forecast showed a modest financial cushion for the coming budget coupled with a possible shortfall years down the road. State finance officials released a quarterly economic update on Friday that showed November and December tax receipts ran $380 million — or 7.2% — ahead of prior projections. But the update came with a warning that the near-term economic outlook has worsened because economic growth has dipped a bit, there is tremendous uncertainty around new policies of a newly constituted federal government and inflation and interest rates are still relatively high. Lawmakers will wait until a late-February economic forecast to sketch out their budget plans.
We’re in the final week of Joe Biden’s presidency and he has several speeches planned. The California wildfires prompted the departing president to cancel a final foreign trip to meet with Pope Francis, whom he awarded a presidential medal, and other world leaders. The second inauguration of Republican President Donald Trump, who will have spent four years out of the White House in between those two terms, is Monday. He enters office as a convicted felon after an unprecedented criminal case sentencing on Friday. But he has an allied Congress and a convincing election win at his back as he presses for sweeping changes on immigration, economic policy and more. Trump hopes to extend a package of tax cuts approved during his first term that would have otherwise expired in 2027. He also intends to use executive action to lock down the U.S. border and deport some people living in the country without legal status. One pre-inauguration problem for Trump remains on the table; the possible release of a special prosecutor’s report on investigation of Trump for alleged 2020 election interference could drop at any point if legal appeals are resolved. Special Prosecutor Jack Smith resigned over the weekend. | 