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| Wednesday, July 27, 2022 |
| You know how there's always that one person in your Fantasy draft who always seems to draft the best players from three years ago? The Buccaneers are that team nowadays. |
| First, it was Rob Gronkowski coming out of retirement to join Tom Brady two years ago, and then it was the ultimately ill-fated decision to sign Antonio Brown that same season. And now they've added Julio Jones on a one-year deal we learned Tuesday. Yeah, Julio Jones is going to be catching passes from Tom Brady. That's pretty wild. |
| Does it actually matter for Fantasy? The answer to that question is a definite "maybe!" Jones is 33 and has had a lot of trouble staying on the field the past two seasons, but we just saw Antonio Brown and Gronkowski look like difference makers for stretches with Brady, so why can't Jones? |
| I wrote about the ramifications of that move Tuesday, and I've moved Jones into the top 50 in my WR rankings now – I'm not overreacting, but I'm not opposed to drafting him now, either. What remains unclear as of now is what, if anything, this means for what the Bucs are expecting from Chris Godwin. |
| And that's what the rest of today's FFT newsletter is focusing on. Well, not just on Godwin – all of the injuries you need to know about, really. Godwin is just one of several big names entering camp with injury questions, and while we're getting some answers as players report, these are still some of the biggest questions Fantasy players are facing in drafts this season. |
| I also have some thoughts on a few recent drafts I took part in and how I'm approaching drafts in general this season. I'll have more on that in upcoming newsletters, and if you have any questions about anything draft related, send them my way at [email protected] with the subject line "#AskFFT" to be answered right here. |
| Training camp injury updates |
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| This is, by no means, an exhaustive list of all the injuries around the NFL -- just Tuesday, for instance, we learned that Marquise Brown will start camp on the non-football injury list due to a hamstring issue, though we don't have any more details than that at this point. These are the most serious injuries we're following heading into camp, the ones that have a chance to fundamentally alter how these players are valued heading into the season. |
| Chris Godwin (ACL) – The latest: "Things are looking cautiously optimistic about Chris Godwin being back for Week 1 …" |
| "But," the quote from The Athletic's Greg Auman continues , "the Bucs aren't set on him being ready just yet." And neither should you be. Godwin underwent surgery in early January, so Week 1 would be just about nine months removed - the average return to play time for wide receivers coming back from torn ACLs is 10-11 months. That's not to say Godwin can't be back by Week 1 -- and the fact he's not starting camp on the PUP list is a good sign as far as that goes. Plus, whether he'll be ready for Week 1 isn't the only thing that matters – if you draft Godwin late enough, you'll be in a position to be patient. At this point, I'm not drafting him expecting him to be a big contributor early on; I'm drafting him hoping I get a WR1 for more than half of the season. |
| J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards (ACL) – The latest: Both are opening camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list. |
| Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean much of anything. They just haven't been cleared at the start of camp, which shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Both could be ready for Week 1, though interestingly, The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec indicated Tuesday that Edwards might be a bit more of a question mark than Dobbins at this point. I don't think either will get a ton of work early on, but then, I don't expect either to get a ton of work even when fully healthy – this is going to be split backfield, with Lamar Jackson taking on roughly one-third of the carries as well. That limits the upside for whoever you want to take, and Dobbins as a top-50 pick doesn't necessarily make sense right now. |
| Michael Thomas (ankle) – The latest: Will open camp on the PUP list. |
| Timetables and predictions have been meaningless when it comes to Thomas, who has played just seven games over the past two seasons, all in 2020. All we've heard is that the team is hopeful he'll be ready to go by the start of the season, but after adding Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry, it's clear they don't need him back the way they would have last year. Thomas' ADP is slipping (81.3 since July 1) to the point where he's an OK bet, but I'm still very skeptical about his chances of making an impact at this point. |
| James Robinson (Achilles) – The latest: Won't be on the PUP list. |
| This one comes as a bit of a surprise, but then again, Robinson is already a month further removed from surgery than Cam Akers was when he made his return to play last season. It's fair to be concerned about how Robinson will fare coming off this injury, but he's still consistently going outside of the top 100 right now, which makes the concerns mostly mute. |
| Tee Higgins (shoulder) – The latest: Not opening camp on PUP. |
| There has been surprisingly little concern in the Fantasy world about Higgins this offseason, considering he had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder in March. But the fact that he isn't going to be on the PUP list indicates that he's recovered as expected. There's some risk here, but Higgins is a borderline top-12 WR for me, someone I'm willing to take at the beginning of the third round. |
| Robert Woods (ACL) – The latest: Not on the PUP list. |
| Woods tore his ACL in early November, so he's already about 10 months removed from the injury. I'm expecting him to be good to go for Week 1, and he has a pretty good chance to be the Titans No. 1 WR this season. He's no A.J. Brown, but his ability to make plays down the field or with the ball in his hands near (or even behind, as the Rams often used him) the goal line could serve him well in this offense. There's probably WR2 upside here from a guy you can usually draft as your No. 5 guy. |
| Jameson Williams (ACL) – The latest: On non-football injury list. |
| Williams tore his ACL in January, so his timeline is similar to Godwin's – except, obviously, without the track record. Many thought Williams was the most talented WR in the class, and I like the idea of snagging him late in your drafts as an upside play – I took him 124th in the 3WR PPR draft we did Tuesday, which you can read about below. |
| Jameis Winston (ACL) – The latest: Not on PUP list. |
| Quarterbacks tend to need a bit less time than other skill position players to get cleared from a torn ACL, and Winston has been telling reporters for weeks that he's basically ready. He's fully expected to open the season as the Saints QB1, and he has top-12 potential if they opt to open the passing game up a bit. The rebuilt receiving corps should help even if Thomas is a question mark, and I like snagging Winston late if I'm not going for an early-round QB. |
| Christian Watson (undisclosed) – The latest: Placed on the PUP list. |
| The Packers haven't divulged what kind of injury Watson is dealing with, so this certainly comes as a surprise. It's also generally not good news when a rookie has to miss valuable training camp reps early on in camp, especially when that rookie has to earn the trust of the famously fickle Aaron Rodgers. Given the ambiguity in Green Bay's receiving corps, Watson has plenty of upside, but the longer he's out without any details, the harder it is to invest even that late-round pick in him. |
| What I learned from a couple of recent drafts |
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| It's draft season, which means I'm doing a ton of drafts these days – usually at least two or three per week. You can stay up to date with all of the mock drafts we're doing on our Fantasy Football Draft Prep Guide – and our Dynasty and Rookie-only drafts are here at our Dynasty Football Central. |
| I want to highlight a couple of drafts I did recently that saw me take two very different approaches – one of which I was a lot happier with. We'll start with the draft I was less excited about, a 14-teamer for the Fantasy Sports & Gaming Association's experts league. I wrote a full breakdown of that draft and where things went wrong here, and this is what my roster looks like picking from the No. 4 spot: |
| 1.4 - Christian McCaffrey, CAR, RB2.11 - Alvin Kamara, NO, RB3.4 - Mike Evans, TB, WR4.11 - George Kittle, SF, TE5.4 - D.K. Metcalf, SEA, WR6.11 - Elijah Moore, NYJ, WR7.4 - Kyler Murray, ARI, QB 8.11 - Robert Woods, TEN, WR9.4 - Kadarius Toney, NYG, WR10.11 - Raheem Mostert, MIA, RB11.4 - Robby Anderson, CAR, WR12.11 - D.J. Chark, DET, WR13.4 - Zamir White, LV, RB14.11 - Curtis Samuel, WAS, WR15.4 - Baltimore Ravens , BAL, Def/ST16.11 - Jake Elliott, PHI, K |
| And here's my roster from a 12-team draft we did Tuesday afternoon – Jamey Eisenberg wrote about the full draft here, and we did a live stream of the draft on the FFT YouTube channel, which you should obviously subscribe to: |
| 1.4 - Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR2.9 - Deebo Samuel, WR, SF3.4 - Javonte Williams, RB, DEN4.9 - Mike Williams, WR, LAC5.4 - Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC6.9 - Drake London, WR, ATL7.4 - Amon-Ra St. Brown , WR, DET8.9 - T.J. Hockenson, TE, DET9.4 - Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA10.9 - Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL11.4 - Jameson Williams, WR, DET12.9 - Gus Edwards, RB, BAL13.4 - Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA14.9 - Alec Pierce, WR, IND |
| I like that second roster a lot more than the first one, and not just because it's comparing a 12-team league to a 14-teamer – though, naturally, that helps. It's because I dove into the wide receiver pool earlier, leaving me with a much more secure crop at that position. |
| Of course, throughout the live stream, Adam Aizer continuously commented on the weakness of my RB2 spot, which is fair, but ultimately comes down to a little bit of a disagreement about approach. Unless I'm going to get aggressive and snag two of the top 12 or so options like I did in the first draft, I'm almost always going to view my RB2 spot as a question mark. |
| Even someone like Javonte Williams, who is my RB1 in this second draft, is no sure thing to be a must-start option. He certainly wasn't last season, and if Melvin Gordon is still splitting carries more or less 50-50, he could once again be a frustrating player to roster. |
| But the thing about running back is, outside of the first 12-15 drafted every year, most of them aren't particularly predictable. That's not to say the likes of Cam Akers, James Conner, or David Montgomery can't or won't be must-start options; it's just that historically many of the RB2s and RB3s drafted most years just don't work out for one reason or another. High-end running backs consistently hit, but after that, they're often a crapshoot. |
| And the problem with doubling up on high-end running backs like I did in the first draft is that you're taking on the relatively high attrition rate of running backs while leaving yourself dependent on a much more questionable class of wide receivers. WR tends to be deep, and the 50th WR will almost certainly outscore the 50th RB (he might outscore the 30th RB most seasons), but this season especially, it feels like there's a swift drop-off with high-end guys followed by a much larger middle class. |
| I've been a proponent of the "Hero-RB" strategy in recent years, where you get one high-end RB early on to anchor your group and then focus on fliers like the Penny/Allgeier/Edwards trio from that second group, and I think that's going to remain my optimal draft strategy this season, too. |
| It doesn't mean I'll follow that approach every draft. But I'd rather have two WRs and one RB through my first three picks than vice versa at this point. |
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