What now after Geert Wilders’ surprise success in the Dutch election

Good morning. Earlier this week Dutch voters cast their ballots in a knife-edge snap election following the collapse of prime minister Mark Rutte’s coalition government in July. The results surprised many. The anti-Islam, anti-EU populist politician Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) snagged 37 seats in the 150-seat parliament. That might not sound like a lot but the outgoing centre-right party leading the last government had 34 seats after the previous election.

Even Wilders himself, not known for self-doubt, was surprised that his party won that many seats. The results have placed the hard-right PVV firmly ahead of any other party, but still below the threshold for an outright majority. The Netherlands finds itself in a political dilemma: how does a country traditionally ruled by coalitions form a functioning government when most other major political parties have previously declared they will not work with the PVV?

The left-wing bloc, led by Frans Timmerman, came second with 25 seats, while the centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) was decimated, trailing in third with 24 seats.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Jon Henley, the Guardian’s Europe correspondent, about what this shock result means for Dutch politics – and what it says about the presence of far-right populist politics in Europe.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘Wilders is determined to go into government – but it’s not going to be easy’

For over two decades, Geert Wilders has been a notorious figure in Dutch politics. His extremist views on Islam, immigration and the EU have earned him a criminal conviction and pushed him to the fringes, but he has remained a consistent presence among Europe’s far right.

Muslim organisations have expressed concern about Wilders’ victory: he has described Islam as the “ideology of a retarded culture” and a “backward religion”, and the Qur’an as “fascist”. Wilders also has a conviction for calling Moroccan people “scum”.

Though Muslims make up about 5% of the population in the Netherlands, the PVV’s manifesto still includes a ban on mosques, the Qur’an and headscarves in government buildings. (In the run-up to the election, Wilders said that all policies will fall “within the law and constitution”.) Other policies he has promoted include holding a “Nexit” referendum to get the Netherlands out of the EU, and cutting financial and military support for Ukraine.

After waiting in the wings for years, Wilders has found himself centre stage of political life in the Netherlands. Will he finally get his hands on power?

Will Geert Wilders be the next prime minister?

In short, probably not.

The Netherlands has one of the most fragmented multiparty political systems in Europe. In this election alone, voters could choose from 26 political parties, 18 of which could enter parliament. No party has won a majority of seats in parliament in over a century.

So what happens now? The leader of the largest party, in this case Wilders, has to see if he can form a majority coalition with other parties. The issue is that most of the major parties have already, unequivocally, ruled out forming a coalition with the PVV, particularly with Wilders as prime minister. “The last government took 271 days to form and that was relatively straightforward compared to what Wilders is up against, especially as he has been shut out of Dutch politics for so long”, Jon says. Wilders is not oblivious to these difficulties and has acknowledged the coalition challenge, saying: “I call on the parties … Now we will have to look for agreements with each other.”

The only hope that remains for Wilders is the outgoing VVD party. During the campaign, the party’s leader, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, said that she was keeping the door open to working with Wilders. Critics said that she was legitimising Wilders and the PVV. The plan to scoop some of the PVV’s voters backfired and many now view the refusal to condemn Wilders as a terrible strategic mistake, but even Yeşilgöz-Zegerius has said that she will not enter a coalition if Wilders is the prime minister. Either way, any coalition that includes the PVV will significantly dilute or completely abandon their most extreme policies.

There have also been strong suggestions that the VVD could enter negotiations with Wilders, only to pull out after three to four months, collapsing the process and forcing another election. The other option is some kind of deal where the PVV is outside the coalition but provides parliamentary support in exchange for their policies being put on the agenda as well.

And finally, there is, in theory, a possibility that all three major political parties, the VVD, the leftwing bloc, and the NSC, alongside other parties, could form a government. “So there are a few constellations that are theoretically possible, but they are all impractical”, Jon says.

“Wilders is clearly determined this time to go into government and, with such a large victory, it is going to be hard to deny”, Jon says. “But that doesn’t mean that it’s going to be easy for him”.

The far-right in Europe

Far-right parties across Europe have been “delighted” by the result, Jon says. Populist leaders have congratulated Wilders: Hungary’s far-right prime minister, Viktor Orbán, prematurely announced Wilders’ victory, adding that the results showed “the winds of change are here!”. France’s Marine Le Pen said that Wilders’ shock win “confirms the growing attachment to the defence of national identities”. And Belgian far-right leader Tom Van Grieken proclaimed that “parties like ours are coming all over Europe!”.

Like Wilders, these leaders have managed to gain more support by diversifying their list of grievances: “For a long time the far-right hobby horse was immigration, Islam and the EU. They’ve added to that fears and concerns about the cost of living crisis, about the green transition and about the cost of the war in Ukraine”, Jon says. One person told the Guardian their reason for voting for the PVV was mainly about the cost of living: “While he said enough is enough he is right, enough is enough. We pay too much tax, too much for healthcare, too much for rent. We can’t take it any more.”

Regardless of whether Wilders is able to form a coalition, his win confirms that “the far right is on an upward curve, with occasional setbacks”, Jon says. Despite recent losses in Spain and Poland, generally the far right has been gaining ground all over Europe: in Italy, Finland, Sweden, Austria and Greece. Many parties will look at this result as confirmation that the political winds are going in their favour.

What else we’ve been reading

Before Ridley Scott became the latest film-maker to take on this colossus, how was Napoleon represented in art? Jonathan Jones reviews portraits by David, Gros and Turner – by turns heroic, majestic and isolated in defeat. Clare Longrigg, acting head of newsletters

Emine Saner profiles Britain’s new Strictly fan favourite: Bobby Brazier, son of the late reality star Jade Goody who is dancing his way through this year’s show. Saner explores the secret to his success: his genuine nature. Nyima Jobe, newsletters team

“You don’t stop feeling those things just because you’re old.” Sophie Elmhirst tells the intimate and moving story of a romance in a care home. Clare

In this week’s Ranked column, it’s all the greatest songs produced by Stock Aitken Waterman. From Donna Summer to Dead or Alive, Alexis Petridis has your ready-made weekend playlist here. Nyima

It’s so hard to recollect what being a teenager is like, especially when you have teenage children, but Zadie Smith’s account in the New Yorker (£) of a dramatic fall from her bedroom window when she was 17 draws us into a meditation on teenage energy, misery and time. Clare

Sport

Football | A hat-trick from Sam Kerr guided Chelsea to a 4-1 victory over a stubborn Paris FC at Stamford Bridge. The striker opened the scoring in the first half before the visitors levelled through Théa Gréboval. Two second-half goals in seven minutes from the Australian, however, ensured Chelsea earned a crucial three points.

Tennis | Novak Djokovic, pictured, accused a vocal set of British fans of showing him “disrespect” throughout his match as he closed out Serbia’s 2-0 Davis Cup win over Great Britain by defeating Cameron Norrie 6-4, 6-4. “Learn how to respect players, learn how to respect people, you shut up, you be quiet,” he said.

Football | Wasim Haq has resigned as a member of the Football Association council after saying “Adolf Hitler would be proud of Benjamin Netanyahu”. Haq said that his decision to step down was “the best course of action for the FA and myself” and reiterated that his comments were not aimed at the Jewish community.

The front pages

“Revealed: how the king secretly profits from dead citizens’ assets” is our Guardian splash this morning. The Times has “Migration figures pile pressure on PM to act” and the Daily Telegraph goes with “Cabinet pressure on Sunak to slash migration”. “Failure to halt migration is ‘slap in the face’ for public” – that’s the Daily Express which uses a head shot of Suella Braverman whom its headline quotes. “Suella leads Tory revolt on migration” – when the Daily Mail gets on first-name terms, you know it likes what it’s hearing. “Sunak under pressure as net immigration reaches record” says the Financial Times. “Make it stop” – the Daily Mirror says the Tories are “breaking Britain”, itemising what it casts as their failures on the economy, bills, migration and Covid. “Winches from death” – a dramatic Metro page one concentrates on the story of a worker being plucked by crane from a high-rise rooftop blaze in Reading. “Cabinet battle on UK’s migrant care workers” – that’s the i which says the Home Office wants a visa crackdown, the Department of Health doesn’t.

Something for the weekend

Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now

TV
Such Brave Girls (BBC Three)
Kat Sadler has been gathering the material for Such Brave Girls for most of her life. It is a loosely autobiographical sitcom in which she stars as Josie, who has a long history of depression, suicidal thoughts and poor mental health. The first couple of episodes don’t establish the characters or dynamics firmly enough and drag a little because the jokes are too far apart. However, there is a particular joy in seeing a woman-led, female-written show that doesn’t pull its punches and revels in plumbing the depths. Such Brave Girls is indeed brave – singular, fresh, scabrous and unflinching – but still – or, rather, as a result – hilarious. Lucy Mangan

Music
M1onthebeat: The Mixtape
M1onthebeat’s first mixtape opens with an answering machine message: “I’m busy grafting making this happen,” he says. “History wasn’t made by those sitting there doing nothing.” The “this” is presumably the unexpected commercial rise of UK drill. It is now a genre that spawns chart-topping singles and albums, and it isn’t too self-aggrandising of the producer to suggest he has had an important role in it. The closing track on the debut mixtape Hear No Evil is striking partly because Kojey Radical and Knucks’s lyrics shift away from the preoccupations of drill, partly because of the addictive chorus courtesy of vocalist Miraa May. This mixtape deserves praise. Alexis Petridis

Film
Napoleon
Many directors have tried following Napoleon where the paths of glory lead, and maybe it is only defiant defeat that is really glorious. But Ridley Scott – the Wellington of cinema – has created an outrageously enjoyable cavalry charge of a movie, a full-tilt biopic of two and a half hours. Napoleon lives on for those who want to annul the horrors of the 20th century and revive what they take to be the romantic adventure of warfare. For Scott he doesn’t detain the audience with metaphysical meaning and certainly doesn’t withhold the old-fashioned pleasures of spectacle and excitement. Joaquin Phoenix is the key to it all: a performance as robust as the glass of burgundy he knocks back: preening, brooding, seething and triumphing. Peter Bradshaw

Podcast
Heirs of Enslavement
Clive Lewis MP’s ancestors were enslaved and former BBC journalist Laura Trevelyan’s were enslavers – and both want to confront the past. This podcast sees them travel to Grenada to meet Lewis’s dad and historian Nicole Phillip-Dowe, who helped Trevelyan’s family draft an apology to the country. Plenty of thought-provoking discussions follow. Hannah Verdier

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

When Doctor Who first returned to our screens 20 years ago it wasn’t just the titular Doctor that was regenerated, it was the Welsh economy. According to a new report from the BBC, the show has contributed at least £134.6m in GVA (gross value added) to the Welsh economy, created hundreds of jobs and acted as a catalyst for a dramatic growth in the country’s creative sector.

Russell T Davies, who was the showrunner for the first four revived series and has returned for three specials this autumn to celebrate the Doctor’s 60th anniversary, is proud of the impact it’s had on his home nation’s economy: “When people say, ‘Oh, a drama cost £2m’, what that means is £2m goes into Cardiff, £2m to the drivers and the office staff and the hospitality, the hotels, pubs, bars, supermarkets.”

The Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, is hoping for many more years: “The Doctor’s return has been a key driver in building the reputation of the Welsh screen industry. Here’s to many incarnations to come.”

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

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