| | | | Wednesday, February 26, 2025 | | 29 days until Opening Day ... | | If we're being honest, the answer to a question like, "Who is this year's Seth Lugo" is, "Don't be silly. Nobody is doing that again!" Lugo was a bolt of lightning in a clear blue sky, and that just doesn't happen every year. And even if it did happen every year, predicting where it would come from would be next to impossible. | | But that's the job, isn't it? Fantasy Baseball seasons are won and lost on getting a few outlier predictions right, so we're going to try to do the impossible today: We're looking for this year's versions of last year's out-of-nowhere, outlier performances. We're probably going to be wrong more often than not, but if we hit on at least a few of these calls, it's going to make a big difference to our teams. | | So that's the goal of today's newsletter. Before we get to that, make sure you didn't miss everything you need to know from the Fantasy Baseball Today team over the past few days: | | Scott White's list of each team's most pivotal playerFrank Stampfl's Breakouts 2.0 My Sleepers 2.0My Boom-or-Bust All-Stars Three rankings fallers from the early spring | | | | This Year's _____ | | | | This year's Seth Lugo | | A veteran starting pitcher who puts together an ace season more or less out of nowhere. | | Contender 1: Nestor Cortes, Brewers – We've seen stretches of it from Cortes before, so the case here would be two-fold: One, a better park and defense backing him in Milwaukee helps on the margins, and he finds a way to improve the strikeout rate enough to make those marginal improvements matter more. Even at his best, Cortes has never run huge strikeout or swinging strike rates, but he was downright average last season. With how he limits hard contact and free passes, even getting the strikeout rate back up to 24-25% could really matter. | | Contender 2: Nick Martinez, Reds – Like Lugo, Martinez is a converted reliever who has proved surprisingly adept in a starting role thanks to really strong control. What he doesn't share with Lugo is a spacious ballpark and eight-pitch repertoire – he only throws six pitches at least 6% of the time. Martinez has a few plus swing-and-miss pitches and has shown some skills in limiting damage on contact. If he just sustains what he did last season over a full-time starting role, he'll be a pretty impactful pitcher. | | Contender 3: Nick Pivetta, Padres – Alright, you've heard this one before. And I was very skeptical about the claims that Pivetta had figured something out in the second half of 2023 that made him a potential ace for 2024 – and that skepticism was rewarded with the same maddening inconsistency as ever in 2024. But here's the thing: The elite strikeout and whiff rates are still here, and Pivetta has gotten better about limiting free passes in recent seasons, posting a better-than-average walk rate in 2024. The problem, as always, is that he just gets freaking crushed when he does allow contact. That will be an issue forever, I fear, but it might be less of an issue in the spacious confines of Petco Park. With Pivetta's ADP back outside the top 200 this season, I'm fine gambling on the late-round upside. | | | | This year's Reynaldo Lopez | | The converted reliever who becomes an ace starter. | | Contender 1: Clay Holmes, Mets – Holmes showed me what I wanted to see in his first spring outing. It's only one start, so we really don't know how Holmes' new changeup and cutter will play consistently, but he put in the work this offseason to develop a real starter's arsenal, at least. Maybe the changeup is terrible and he gets crushed by lefties, who he often struggled with even in a relief role. I don't know, I can't predict the future. But if he was going to successfully transition to a starting role, it would have to feature an expanded arsenal, and that's what he's got. With his ADP still sitting outside the top 250, I'm willing to put aside my concerns and take the chance. | | Contender 2: Mike Soroka, Nationals – Soroka made the change to a four-seamer/slider approach in the White Sox bullpen toward the end of last season and put up a massive 42% strikeout rate over the final three months of the season. It was only 25.2 innings of work, so if you are skeptical, you are right to be. But the Nationals saw enough to give him a $9 million deal for 2025, and I'm willing to give him a look in H2H points leagues just to see if he can make something out of it. | | Contender 3: Grant Holmes, Braves – Holmes filled in as a starter at times in the second half for the Braves last season and showed some real skills, headlined by a slider and curveball combo that each registered a whiff rate over 40%. Holmes was once a top prospect about a decade ago, but his minor-league numbers will tell you the story of why he ended up being an emergency starter for the Braves last season. But with those two breaking balls and control that has improved considerably over the past two seasons, there could be something here with the team that made Lopez's transition to the rotation work out. | | | | This year's Bryce Miller | | The young guy who takes a massive step forward. | | Contender 1: Spencer Arrighetti, Astros – Arrighetti is one of my favorite sleepers for 2025 , and I actually can't believe his ADP is still outside of the top 200 in February. He has a solid fastball that serves as the foundation of his approach, but it's the secondaries I'm really impressed by – when he can throw his cutter consistently for strikes, the whole package comes together incredibly well with two big-time swing-and-miss pitches. The command was iffy early on, but he figured things out in the second half and went on a heck of a run, posting a 3.31 ERA and 29% strikeout rate over his final 16 starts. He's on a good team and could get to 180 innings this season, though he isn't likely to replicate Miller's elite WHIP from last season. | | Contender 2: Nick Lodolo, Reds – Lodolo kind of already did this last season. He had a 2.76 ERA and 26.1% strikeout rate before going on the IL with a blister on his middle finger, but after returning from that, he just never looked the same. He couldn't grip his curveball right, lost the effectiveness on the pitch, and ultimately went on the IL with soreness in that same finger. The margin for error here isn't particularly wide, especially with Lodolo pitching half his games in Cincinnati, but if he can stay healthy, the potential for dominance is clearly there. | | Contender 3: Mackenzie Gore, Nationals – If you catch him on the right day, Gore looks unhittable. And he had a lot of good days early on in 2024, putting together a 3.26 ERA and 28.2% strikeout rate in his first 15 starts. And then his velocity dipped, exposing his mediocre command, and his reverse platoon splits remained a significant issue – lefties managed a massive .834 OPS against him in 2024. The tools are all here if he can sit 96-97 with the four-seamer, and I like to bet on talent. I just wish it felt like a better bet. | | This year's Bobby Miller | | The hyped breakout candidate pitcher who breaks everyone's hearts instead. | | Contender 1: Roki Sasaki, Dodgers – I've written plenty about my Sasaki skepticism this offseason, and his price remains a real sticking point. I think Sasaki has plenty of upside, especially in the long run, but I don't think drafters are taking into account the step back he took in 2024, both in terms of results and stuff. He's missed time in each of the past couple of seasons with injuries and saw a multi-MPH drop in fastball velocity in 2024. He may get that back and dominate in his first taste of the majors, but it's not worth a top-100 pick to find out. | | Contender 2: Spencer Schwellenbach , Braves – I don't really have much to criticize about Schwellenbach's skill set – he has shown a preternatural feel for pitching in a very short time, debuting in the majors with plus command of a legitimate six-pitch mix. So, whatever skepticism is here comes down to workload – 2024 was the first time in Schwellenbach's career he threw more than 65 innings in a season, and he got to 168.2. How will he respond to such a massive jump? I hope it'll go well, but there's enough doubt in my mind that there's usually someone in every league who likes him more than me. | | Contender 3: Bailey Ober, Twins – The nice thing about Ober is, even when the ERA is a bit inflated, the WHIP should typically be very good – he had a 1.00 mark last season despite a 3.98 ERA. My concern here is that Ober has pretty average stuff outside of his changeup, and though his massive extension helps overcome that, his fastball was extremely hittable in 2024, and his new cutter didn't really help overcome that. Blowups might just be part of life with Ober, given how much he lives in the zone and how many fly balls he gives up. Which might mean an inflated ERA is always a part of life with Ober. | | This year's Bobby Witt | | The early-rounder who makes the leap to No. 1 overall contender. | | Contender 1: Julio Rodriguez, Mariners – Can we just avoid the early-season swoon? In 2024, Rodriguez's struggles continued well into the summer, and then a high-ankle sprain in July derailed him just as he was starting to turn things on. Rodriguez remains an elite athlete who struggled to turn on the ball in 2024, and his poor approach at the plate might always lead to these kinds of inconsistencies. Or, maybe he takes a step forward with his plate discipline as a 24-year-old and becomes a world-destroying monster. The tools are there. | | Contender 2: Jackson Chourio, Brewers – The book on Chourio in the minors was that it would always take him a month or two to get settled at each new level, and then he would produce like an absolute superstar, and that's exactly what we saw in his MLB debut. His OPS was down below .600 on June 1, when everything clicked into place. From June 1 on, Chourio hit .303/.358/.525 with a 26-homer, 25-steal pace. And I expect him to run even more in 2025 on a steal-happy Brewers team that seemed to hold him back as a rookie. There's 40-steal upside here, and while the quality of contact was more in the good range than elite for Chourio as a rookie, any improvement there could lead to a 30-homer ceiling, too. Oh, and he did all that and won't even turn 21 until a few weeks from now. | | Contender 3: Jackson Merrill , Padres – As good as Merrill was, he could have been even better, with his .353 wOBA backed up by an even more impressive .373 expected wOBA. The step forward will come from learning how to be a bit more selective at the plate, though his aggressive approach didn't really hold him back as a rookie because his hit tool was so strong. He makes tons of contact and hits the ball hard even when swinging at bad pitches, and there's room for growth as a power hitter without sacrificing batting average. And Merrill probably has some room to grow as a base stealer after going 16 for 19 (84% success rate) with 81st percentile sprint speed. The upside here looks something like "Peak Christian Yelich with fewer walks." | | This year's Brent Rooker | | The breakout everyone is skeptical about who proves the doubters wrong. | | Contender 1: Jurickson Profar , Braves – I'm skeptical about Profar's 2024 production, too! But even after signing with the Braves, his ADP in February drafts is still just 172.5, so I guess I'm just not as skeptical as everyone else. Like with Rooker, the skepticism mostly comes from how out of nowhere his breakout was, but here's the reason why I'm less skeptical: It came with an accompanying and significant improvement in Profar's underlying skill set. His previous high average exit velocity before 2024 was just 87.5 mph, a mark he improved to 91.1 mph without any degradation in his plate discipline. Maybe it was a total fluke, or maybe pitchers will identify something in his approach they can exploit more consistently than they did last season. But with Profar coming off a top-35 finish and going outside the top 170 in ADP, it's easy enough to overcome my skepticism. It worked out with Rooker. | | Contender 2: Eugenio Suarez, Diamondbacks – I don't have any interest in doing the "Over the final X games of the season, Suarez was the No. Y hitter in Fantasy" type of analysis here, because you don't have to. Suarez was the No. 37 player over the course of the whole season, with both his early-season slump and late-season surge accounted for. And his underlying metrics mostly back it up. He doesn't have to be as dominant as he was in the second-half to justify his current ADP, which remains outside of the top 150. There's plenty of batting average risk here, but if Suarez remains in the .235-.250 range and in the heart of this excellent Mariners lineup, I'm very willing to buy him ahead of his going rate. | | Contender 3: Victor Robles, Mariners – I'm a bit confused about why Xavier Edwards (139.9 ADP) is getting more of the benefit of the doubt than Robles (189.6). Edwards is a bit younger, but I'm not sure the difference between 25 and 27 is big enough that it should matter very much. The underlying skill set for both looks very similar, but arguably better for Robles – .257 xBA for Robles vs. .252 for Edwards, but Robles showed more power potential. And Robles stole 30 bases in just 77 games with the Mariners, compared to 31 in 70 games for Edwards. It sure sounds like those two players should be ranked pretty similarly, so it feels like an example of Robles getting penalized for making the majors and struggling while Edwards was toiling away in the minors. The Mariners liked what they saw from Robles enough to give him a two-year contract extension in the middle of last year's strong run, and if I'm looking for cheap speed, I'll take the discount on Robles. | | This year's Jackson Merrill | | The overlooked rookie who becomes a difference maker. | | Contender 1: Matt Shaw, Cubs – Shaw doesn't have the same dynamic as Merrill did last year, because there aren't several other rookies being hyped ahead of him in drafts, but there's still something there in his current 213.4 ADP in February. Shaw isn't guaranteed a spot in the Cubs Opening Day lineup, but if he doesn't make it, it seems like it will be because he failed to take advantage of the opportunity. He hit .284/.379/.488 in 121 games across Double-A and Triple-A last season and has 20-20 upside even as a rookie. His price should rise if and when it looks like he's locked up a roster spot, but so far, there hasn't been much helium here. | | Contender 2: Bryce Eldridge, Giants – Eldridge has only played 17 games above A-ball, so he's rightly viewed as a long shot to actually make the Giants roster. But when you look at the state of that Giants roster, it's not hard to see how there could be room for him if he forces the issue – the fact that he's not on the 40-man roster is probably a bigger impediment to his chances than current projected DH Wilmer Flores. Eldridge is a long shot to make the roster, but hey, we probably said the same thing about Merrill last February, too. | | Contender 3: Dalton Rushing, Dodgers – The problem for Rushing remains the same as it has been throughout his rise up the minors: Is there ever going to be a spot for him in the lineup with any regularity? He got to Triple-A and hit .273/.396/.511, remaining the same patient, dangerous hitter he's been throughout his career, and he has played a bit of outfield in an attempt to find another path that isn't blocked by Will Smith and his long-term contract. The problem, of course, is that it's not like the outfield corners are that much easier to crack into, with Teoscar Hernandez and Michael Conforto seeming pretty solidified there for 2025, at least. Rushing might need an injury to Smith to really have a chance, but catchers do tend to get injured pretty frequently, especially as they enter their 30s – and for no reason at all, I will point out that Smith turns 30 before the end of March. | | This year's Nolan Jones | | The hyped breakout candidate hitter who breaks everyone's hearts instead. | | Contender 1: Wyatt Langford, Rangers – I wrote about Langford's constantly increasing price last week, so I don't have too much to add. I mostly believe in the talent here – it's a well-rounded skill set with very few obvious weaknesses, even in a rookie season where he was largely disappointed. But we also only have one month on record of Langford actually being worth the borderline third-round cost he's carrying lately. Jones was good for most of the 2023 season, by comparison. | | Contender 2: Lawrence Butler, Athletics – Butler feels like the truest analogue to Jones among this year's player pool. Jones was a more well-regarded prospect and generally produced better in the minors, but Butler's plate discipline profile carries significantly fewer red flags, so we'll call it something close to even here. In both cases, we have significantly less than a full season of excellent play to point to, along with the hope of true five-category production if all goes right. My biggest worry with Butler: His breakout was mostly isolated to a huge July and August, as he hit just .268/.344/.304 in September. My other big worry: His Adp is up to 64.4 in February. | | Contender 3: Jordan Westburg, Orioles – I'm very high on Westburg, one of my 2025 Breakout candidates , and it does make me a bit nervous. I love the foundation he built in 2024, and I expect him to take a step forward in 2025, both as a power hitter – thanks in part to the shorter fences in left field in Baltimore – and as a base runner. But I'd be lying if I said there were no concerns here. Westburg's plate discipline is pretty terrible – a 21.7 strikeout rate is manageable, but his 4.9% walk rate was one of the worst in the league, and his 35% chase rate is a pretty big red flag. He's also a fringe-y defender, playing for a team that has arguably the best third base prospect in baseball waiting behind him – and Coby Mayo pretty clearly has little left to learn at Triple-A after spending all season there mashing. Westburg has 30-20 upside in a great lineup, but if his free-swinging ways get exploited, there's real playing time risk here. | | | | | | | | Coppa Italia Frecciarossa | | College Basketball | Catch the quarterfinal match of the Coppa Italia Frecciarossa between Inter and Lazio today at 3 PM ET on CBS Sports Golazo Network, our 24/7 network dedicated exclusively to global soccer coverage, and streaming on Paramount+.
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