| The drop in Biden’s support is concentrated among Black men and younger voters – a pattern repeated across different ethnic groups. Black voters under 50 were twice as likely to vote Republican in the 2022 midterms than their older peers, Reuters reported, while the New York Times found that 27% of Black men supported Trump against 17% of Black women. Younger Black voters are much more likely than average to support a ceasefire in Gaza or say that the US should not be involved in the conflict there at all. “Some of these voters aren’t going to turn to Trump,” David said. “But a third party candidate like Cornel West, who is being very clear in a call for a ceasefire, may look attractive to them.” Cliff Albright, a co-founder and executive director of the Black Lives Matter Fund, told David that even if Biden went further on cancelling student debt, new gun legislation, and climate change – three key issues for young Black voters – “many of these folks that right now are furious about what’s going on in Gaza, none of that would change their minds”. Celinda Lake, a pollster who recently ran a round of focus groups, told Politico that she heard from Black voters who feel that their communities are missing out because of the spending on foreign wars. In Detroit, a woman told her that while Ukraine got billions, “we’re in Detroit, and we get nothing”. Among some Black men, a sense that Biden has not made good on his promises has sat alongside a perception that Trump’s racist language matters less than his promise of greater economic opportunities. Trump is leaning into that theme. Jason Miller, a campaign senior adviser, wrote on X/Twitter this week that Biden “has done more damage to the African American community than any president in modern history … everybody knows we were better off with President Trump”. What Biden is doing about it Biden’s speech at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina, this week was seen as a direct attempt to persuade Black voters that they are better off with him, David said. “But there was also a sense that he needed to be scrappy, and hit Trump – to energise Democrats who want to see a fighter on the big picture, and to show some genuine passion.” The most striking parts of his speech – which was interrupted by protesters calling for a ceasefire in Gaza - were those that drew a link from the South’s support of slavery during the civil war and the Trump campaign. The latter was described as “the old ghost in new garments”. He also made pointed references to the “poison” that devastated the church’s community nine years ago: “What is that poison?” he asked. “White supremacy. Throughout our history, it’s ripped this nation apart. This has no place in America – not today, tomorrow or ever.” At the same time, the Biden campaign is said to recognise that a central goal has to be to tell Black voters a positive story about its policy record – and Biden pointed to the fact that he had appointed the first Black female supreme court justice, noted record-low levels of Black unemployment, and celebrated legislation that has lowered the cost of prescription drugs. There are plenty of Democratic strategists who chafe at the idea that Biden has failed Black voters. Terence Woodbury, a Democratic pollster, told ABC News that “when I sit in focus groups with young Black voters and ask what [Democrats have] done to make their lives better, they’re hard pressed to come up with an answer, despite this administration delivering on much of the Black agenda. That’s the communication challenge that we have a year to overcome.” “Ordinary voters are mostly not tuning in yet – they are busy living their lives and worrying about their jobs and what’s for dinner,” David said. “It’s certainly true that there is a lot of time, and as we get nearer election day, they may be reminded that Trump is a demagogue and they don’t want that. But it is, as always, going to come down to a handful of voters in swing states.” | 