Packed agenda as EU leaders gather
Today’s European Council will kick off with a now customary breakfast meeting of countries who want to clamp down on migration. That group – led by the Dutch, Italians, and Danes – has now ballooned in size.
Other topics include simplifying EU rules, the mess in the Middle East, supporting Ukraine, looming US tariffs, and the economic threat from China. Most leaders arrived Wednesday night fresh from setting new NATO defence targets in the Hague.
Not physically present is Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as he’s in Strasbourg for the launch of a special tribunal to get justice for crimes committed by Russia. But he will video-call in.
Middle East tensions are set to dominate, with Iran and Israel’s actions in Gaza under the spotlight. Still, when it comes to Israel, EU leaders aren’t expected to go beyond 'taking note' of the ongoing review of its human rights record under the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico are also expected to push to delay the Russian fossil fuel phase-out in return for greenlighting the EU’s 18th sanctions package. Von der Leyen and Fico will meet one-on-one to hammer something out. If there’s a political deal, then ambassadors could rubber stamp the package as soon as Friday. “We’re pretty confident it will be adopted on Friday,” said one European diplomat.
And when it comes to defence, von der Leyen and Kallas wrote to EU leaders yesterday, outlining how they want to move towards “a more autonomous and stronger European deterrence capability”. Priorities include investing in defence wherever possible, such as through the European Investment Bank where the pair wrote “We look forward to further steps the Bank may take, including on the revision of exclusions”.
Read our full preview of the summit.
Surprise guest at leaders’ dinner: Climate. After both the 2050 and 2030 climate targets were decided at the leaders’ level in Brussels, a coalition of countries including France, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia has demanded that the EU's 2040 target (due to be announced by the Commission on 2 July) should also be put to them – each of whom has a veto.
The issue didn’t make the official agenda for the leaders’ meeting today – but will pop up at dinner anyway, following a push from France, according to three sources. “We can’t just give ourselves another numerical target,” said a European diplomat, pointing to the need for “pragmatism”.
While the latest draft conclusions make no mention of the issue, some leaders are expected to raise the issue anyway – potentially brute-forcing language on the 2040 target into the final version.
Hungary threatens to charge Pride-goers
Viktor Orbán’s government has escalated its threats about Budapest Pride on 28 June, saying that anyone who attends will be committing a crime.
Hungary’s Justice Minister Bence Tuzson sent letters to EU countries and institutions, seen by the Capitals, writing that the Pride parade has been banned “with a view to protecting children’s rights” and “those who take part in an event prohibited by the authorities commit an infraction”.
According to the government, organising it qualifies as a “criminal offense punishable by imprisonment for up to one year”. That’s a clear warning to Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony, who has vowed to go ahead with the event, saying “freedom and love cannot be banned”.
The letter is dated 24 June. Last night Ursula von der Leyen, released a pointed video message, calling on Hungarian authorities “to allow the Budapest Pride to go ahead without fear of any criminal or administrative sanctions against the organisers or participants”. Read more.
Internal ECR fight over attempt to blow up Commission
Giorgia Meloni’s man in the European Parliament is calling one of his MEPs to order over a long-shot attempt to bring a motion of censure against Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission.
ECR Co-chairman Nicola Procaccini sent an email to his MEPs last night – seen by the Capitals – putting the Romanian MEP Gheorghe Piperea (AUR party), in his place. Piperea claims to have gathered 72 signatures, enough to start the procedure to bring a motion of no confidence to the plenary (where the votes it would need are politically out of reach). His motion attacks von der Leyen over the Pfizergate scandal, but also criticises her handling of recovery funds and the circumvention of MEPs on the SAFE defence loans program.
Procaccini wrote: “Given that the motion of censure would not affect President von der Leyen directly – but the Commission as a whole body – including commissioners appointed by ECR governments, do you not think that such a decision should have gone through a group’s decision first?"
The leaders of the groups will discuss it on 2 July, and it'll almost certainly end there. But it will have been a great PR stunt for AUR leader George Simion, who failed to be elected Romanian president recently. Rumour has it that there is one EPP lawmaker on the signature list. If you know who it is, get in touch!
Budget budges: According to the Commission’s tentative new agenda, the second part of the package on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) will be presented on 3 September while the first part remains scheduled for 16 July. The original plan, had been to present the two parts a week apart.