| | | | Wednesday, November 2, 2022 | | Yesterday was the most eventful trade deadline day in NFL history, with a record 10 deals consummated. That's not even including the deal last week that landed Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco. It was an unprecedented amount of deadline-day moves being made, so it's kind of funny to reflect on the fact that the Fantasy Football landscape looks pretty much unchanged from yesterday morning. | | We didn't get the hoped-for deals for Kareem Hunt or Brandin Cooks. The Packers and Cowboys failed to execute a move to upgrade their receiving corps. Mostly, we saw backup running backs moved -- Jeff Wilson from San Francisco to Miami, Chase Edmonds from Miami to Denver, Nyheim Hines from Indianapolis to Buffalo -- or teams like the Bears or Vikings filling holes in ways that may not necessarily move the needle much for Fantasy. | | I broke down everything you need to know from Tuesday's deadline in my Trade Deadline Winners and Losers column Tuesday, and you should make sure you check that out -- as well as the Fantasy Football Today podcast breaking it all down -- before moving on. We'll know more about how these players fit in their new spots in the coming days, and that'll be one thing worth keeping an eye on in practice this week beyond just the injuries. | | And we'll have the latest on that tomorrowl -- plus, Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em calls later tonight, as usual. But, for now let's get to today's newsletter, where we're previewing each position for Week 9 and talking trade targets. Make sure you check out Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart if you're looking to make a trade this week, of course. And, to get your questions included in the newsletter in the coming days, send them to [email protected] with "#AskFFT" as the subject line. | | And now, here's Wednesday's newsletter. | | | 🔍Week 9 Position Previews
| | | | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | | "Based on their productivity alone, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have no business being ranked as top-12 quarterbacks for Fantasy Football purposes. On a per-game basis, they've been almost identical, with Brady averaging 17.3 FPPG to Rodgers' 17.2. Even if you removed all the quarterbacks who aren't playing this week, they still wouldn't be top-15. All that being said, I'm going to have a hard time getting away from them." | On a bye: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kenny Pickett and Jacoby Brissett
Injuries: Ryan Tannehill (ankle), Matt Ryan (shoulder), Carson Wentz (finger) and Sam Darnold (ankle) Number to know: 60 -- Three straight weeks for Justin Fields with at least 60 rushing yards.Matchup that matters: Justin Herbert @ATL (32nd vs. QB) Waiver add/streamer: "Justin Herbert. Fields has been a top-6 quarterback over the past month due to an increase in his passing efficiency and rushing volume. He could be a set-it-and-forget-it starter for the next month due to favorable matchups. He may just be turning into a starting Fantasy QB regardless of matchup."Stash: "Jimmy Garoppolo . I'd imagine Garoppolo will get dropped in a lot of leagues because of his bye week. I'd also imagine he'll be one of our top streamers in Week 10. If you have the roster spot, stash him. With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all healthy, Garoppolo could have a fantastic Fantasy finish." | | *My QB Rankings | | | | RB Preview | | "It was an incredibly busy trade deadline day at the running back position. Chase Edmonds is now on the Broncos, Jeff Wilson is now on the Dolphins, Nyheim Hines joined the Bills, and Zack Moss replaced him on the Colts. And yet, with all those moves, it's hard to find anyone who came out ahead for Fantasy purposes." | On a bye: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray, Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris and Christian McCaffreyInjuries: Ezekiel Elliott (knee), Gus Edwards (hamstring), James Conner (ribs), Chuba Hubbard (ankle), J.K. Dobbins (knee), Cordarrelle Patterson (knee), Cam Akers (personal), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Joshua Kelley (knee), Kyren Williams (ankle), Mark Ingram (knee) and Damien Williams (ribs) Number to know: 3 -- Three touches inside the 10-yard line for Jamaal Williams in Week 8. He's going to continue to vulture touchdowns from D'Andre Swift - a dark reality for Fantasy managers.
Matchup that matters: Miles Sanders @HOU (32nd vs. RB)Waiver add: "Kenyan Drake. As long as Gus Edwards is out, Drake is a borderline No. 2 running back with top-12 upside. He's topped 16 PPR Fantasy points in two of his last three games. Justice Hill is also a boom-or-bust flex option if there's no Edwards."Stash: "Jaylen Warren. If someone drops Warren on his bye week, I'll be looking to snatch him up. He continues to be more efficient than Najee Harris and remains an injury away from must-start status." | | *My RB Rankings | | | | WR Preview | | "The Pittsburgh Steelers traded Chase Claypool to the Chicago Bears on Tuesday in a deal that is complicated for Claypool's Fantasy value but has a more clear impact on several other players in Fantasy Football." | On a bye: Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, Deebo Samuel and Brandon AiyukInjuries: Cooper Kupp (ankle), Ja'Marr Chase (hip), Deebo Samuel (hamstring), Keenan Allen (hamstring), Adam Thielen (knee), Mike Williams (ankle), Allen Lazard (shoulder), Marquise Brown (foot), Michael Thomas (foot), Rashod Bateman (foot), DeVante Parker (knee), Corey Davis (knee), Jahan Dotson (hamstring), Nico Collins (groin), Russell Gage (hamstring), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Treylon Burks (toe), Christian Watson (concussion), Randall Cobb (ankle), D.J. Chark (ankle), Kenny Golladay (knee), Josh Palmer (concussion) and Noah Brown (foot)Number to know: 41 -- 41 of Rondale Moore's 69 Week 8 snaps came from the slot. He's a borderline No. 2 if the team keeps him in the slot where he belongs.
Matchup that matters: Josh Palmer @ATL (32nd vs. WR) Waiver add: "Rondale Moore. If you promised me Moore was going to stay in the slot the rest of the season, I'd tell he's going to be a top-25 WR rest of season. That role has consistently seen eight-to-ten targets per game for Arizona this season, and Moore was back there again. The risk from Moore comes if they moves him outside like they did in Week 7. Hopefully Robbie Anderson gets acclimated and that doesn't happen again."Stash: "Chase Claypool. I don't trust Claypool in his first week in Chicago, but there's a decent chance he's Justin Fields' No. 1 wide receiver in the Fantasy playoffs. If Fields continues his current trajectory, that could be a valuable role late in the season." | | *My WR Rankings | | TE Preview | | "One thing you may notice this week is that there are more waiver wire adds than normal. That's partially because three of them come with caveats. Greg Dulcich is a must-add, but he's not playing this week. Isaiah Likely and Foster Moreau are injury replacements who could be top-10 options if the starter remains out." | On a bye: David Njoku, Harrison Bryant, Dalton Schultz, Greg Dulcich, Pat Freiermuth and George KittleInjuries of note: Mark Andrews (shoulder), Darren Waller (hamstring), Irv Smith (ankle), David Njoku (ankle), Daniel Bellinger (eye) and Cameron Brate (neck) Number to know: 18.8% -- Less than a fifth of Kirk Cousins passes have gone to a tight end this season. Expect this to increase after the Vikings acquired T.J. Hockenson.
Matchup that matters: Irv Smith vs. ARI (31st vs. TE)Streamer: "Greg Dulcich. Dulcich is on bye this week but he still needs to be rostered in nearly all leagues. In hist first three games in the NFL he's performed as the No. 3 tight end in Fantasy Football on a per-game basis. If Russell Wilson gets healthy over the bye, this offense could take off in the second half, giving Dulcich double-digit touchdown upside." | | *My TE Rankings | | Week 9 Trade Talk | | Last week, I told you to buy low on Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Mixon, and George Kittle, and that looks pretty great after one week. Let's see if I can do as well with this week's crop of trade targets. As always, if you're looking to make your own trades, make sure you check out Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart so you know how to make the right offers. | | Three to buy-low | | Chris Godwin -- The Buccaneers offense has been one of the bigger disappointments in the league this season, and you can see that reflected in Godwin's production of late. He's getting a ton of targets -- 11 or more in each of his past three games -- but has caught just 52.8% of them for 213 yards. Maybe Godwin just isn't healthy, or maybe Tom Brady has just lost it, in which case, Godwin's just going to continue to disappoint. But Godwin is getting the usage that has, in the past, made him a top-12 WR, and that's how I've got him ranked right now. I can't imagine most people are valuing him that way. Take advantage. Keenan Allen -- Like Godwin, I'm viewing Allen as, more or less, a top-12 wide receiver moving forward. There's some risk that the 30-year-old's hamstring injury, suffered in Week 1 and lingering long enough to impact him in Week 7, just never goes away. But I'm willing to bet that he got his feet wet in Week 7 and then got back to something like 100% with the bye last week, and is about to put up a 100-catch pace the rest of the way. The trade chart has Allen ranked behind Allen Lazard, Adam Thielen, and Christian Kirk , and I'd rather easily prefer Allen to any of them. Kareem Hunt -- With Hunt not being traded, one path to him returning top-12 value has been foreclosed, and there's probably quite a bit of disappointment about that going on. Take advantage. If you don't need a starting running back right now but have the luxury of aiming for upside down the line, Hunt is an excellent target. He's one Nick Chubb injury away from being a must-start RB -- he has averaged 16.4 carries and 3.4 targets per game in five without Chubb since joining the Browns. | | One to buy-high | | Alvin Kamara -- Some might view Kamara as a sell-high coming off his three-touchdown game, but I view that as him living up to expectations. No, that doesn't mean I expect him to score three touchdowns every week, obviously. But he's still an explosive player with an incredibly valuable role in the Saints offense, and he had somehow managed to be held out of the end zone through his first five games. He's averaging 17.1 carries and 8.2 targets in his past five games and should be viewed as a top-six RB moving forward. If he isn't, pounce. | | Three to sell-high | | Nyheim Hines -- I'm a bit surprised to see Fantasy analysts getting excited about Hines to the Bills, and I get it to a certain extent. The Bills have clearly been looking for a player with Hines' skill set -- they nearly signed J.D. McKissic this offseason and then invested a second-round pick in James Cook when that fell through. But the thing is ... they then proceeded to barely use Cook. Josh Allen has targeted his running backs just 17% of the time this season, and that was 15% of the time in 2021 and 13% of the time in 2020. I don't doubt the Bills want a player with Hines' skill set, and he could push Devin Singletary for playing time, certainly. But this is a team that has basically only had a Fantasy-relevant running back when they've given Singletary 70% or more of the snaps, and Hines probably isn't going to get that. Hines is likely to be a flex at best, and may not even be that. This is a perfect time to sell him. Khalil Herbert -- Herbert is the Bears best running back, and it wouldn't surprise me if they continued to increase his role. However, in Week 8, he played just 28% of the snaps despite rushing for 99 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries, so it's clear the Bears still trust David Montgomery. That may not be what we want to hear, but what we want doesn't matter. There might be a perception that Herbert is taking over this backfield, but I'm not so sure. He's still in the RB3 conversation for me -- outside of the circle of trust.Terry McLaurin -- McLaurin has benefited from Taylor Heinicke looking his way more often than Carson Wentz did, but I'm still not sure there's much to get that excited about here. Yes, he's had two good games in a row, and he's more than capable of that. But He's also had eight targets in each game, which is good but hardly hints at an incredible, repeatable upside. We saw McLaurin play a full season with Heinicke last season, and he wasn't a WR1 or anything close. He's still WR3 with big weekly upside, but also plenty of room for duds. | | One to sell-low | Gabe Davis -- To be clear, you absolutely do not have to sell Davis. He's going to have plenty of big weeks, and if his value is down at all coming off Week 8, don't move him. You still need to value him like a top-20 WR in trades to consider moving him. But I'll just point out that these kinds of games are going to be pretty normal for him, given the way he's used. Davis earns almost exclusively downfield throws, which means his 48.5% catch rate isn't so low that you should expect much regression -- he is, by definition, getting 50-50 balls. Those 50-50 balls are coming from Josh Allen, and Davis is clearly a very explosive receiver, but you still don't expect him to catch much more than half of his targets with an Average Depth of Target of 16.0. This means that, when he hits on those big plays, he's going to be very good, and when he does, you're going to get duds -- he's basically three-and-three so far this season. There's nothing wrong with that -- DeSean Jackson was a very valuable Fantasy player for a long time -- but if you don't want to ride that roller coaster -- or you can get a more predictable high-end player like Godwin or Allen -- you should still be looking to sell.
| | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | The Early Edge | Matchday 6 continues starting with our pregame show, UEFA Champions League Today at 1:30 PM ET. Don't miss a minute of the action! It's all happening on CBSSports.com and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Now
| | Looking for the best picks against the spread, sharp action on the total and props you can take to the ticket window? Join The Coach, Jonathan Coachman, on the Early Edge as he speaks with the best handicappers to preview every day’s biggest games.
Listen Now
|
| | | | |
|
|
