| | | | Wednesday, October 19, 2022 | | Generally speaking, injury news is bad news, but there are a few reasons to be optimistic heading into Week 7, so we'll start today with that. You know Dak Prescott (thumb) is expected to return to the Cowboys this week, but we also learned Tuesday that Keenan Allen (hamstring) has a chance to play against the Seahawks -- coach Brandon Staley told reporters he expects Allen to practice in full this week. | | Of course, not all of the news is good news, because it never is. We'll have a full rundown on all of the injuries for Week 7 you need to know about in tomorrow's newsletter, but just know that it doesn't look like Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle), or James Conner (ribs) are likely to play Thursday. None of them have practiced yet, although Chris Olave (concussion) has been fully cleared in continuing with the good news theme. | | There's no such good news for the Broncos, as we also learned that Russell Wilson has a hamstring injury that could cause him to miss some time. Wilson has been terrible this season, but I'd bet on Brett Rypien being worse, so we'll have to keep an eye on that one -- the Broncos might be an offense to avoid entirely if Wilson has to miss time. | | We'll have more tomorrow -- plus, Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em calls later tonight -- but for now let's get to today's newsletter, where we're previewing each position for Week 7 and talking trade targets. Make sure you check out Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart if you're looking to make a trade this week, of course. And, to get your questions included in the newsletter moving forward, send them to [email protected] with "#AskFFT" as the subject line. | | And now, here's Wednesday's newsletter. | | | 🔍Week 7 Position Previews
| | | | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | | "Every year we dub one week of byes the Bye-nado, and with the Bills, Vikings, Rams , and Eagles on a bye in Week 7, this feels like as good as any. We're missing two of the top four quarterbacks in Fantasy in Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, and a pair of guys we expected to be borderline starters in Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins. Thankfully, we're also getting back a pair of must-start options." | On a bye: Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Jalen HurtsInjuries: Dak Prescott (thumb), Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), Russell Wilson (hamstring), Carson Wentz (finger), Jameis Winston (back), Justin Fields (shoulder), Kenny Pickett (concussion), Mac Jones (ankle), Baker Mayfield (ankle), Andy Dalton (back), Sklyer Thompson (thumbe) and P.J. Walker (neck).Number to know: 37 -- Matt Ryan has thrown at least 37 passes in every game but one this year.
Matchup that matters: Dak Prescott vs. DET (24th vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: "Matt Ryan. Ryan is second in the NFL in pass attempts and faces a Titans defense that allows the third-most Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The return of Jonathan Taylor could impact Ryan's pass volume, but he's still the top bye-week replacement."Stash: "Kenny Pickett. I still have some hope this Steelers offense could show more explosiveness with Pickett under center. They play the Panthers, Raiders, and Ravens in the Fantasy playoffs, all matchups that provide big upside." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Patrick Mahomes, KCLamar Jackson, BAL Joe Burrow, CINKyler Murray, ARI Justin Herbert, LAC Tom Brady, TBDak Prescott, DALGeno Smith, SEAMatt Ryan, IND Derek Carr, LVTua Tagovailoa, MIAAaron Rodgers, GB | | *My QB Rankings | | | | RB Preview | | "Ezekiel Elliott has scored exactly 10 Fantasy points per game and enters Week 7 as the No. 38 running back in Fantasy Football on a per-game basis. That's one spot higher than his teammate Tony Pollard. As someone who called Elliott a bust in the preseason, even I didn't expect the results to be quite this bad. I also expect them to start getting better in Week 7." | On a bye: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers Injuries: Jonathan Taylor (ankle), D'Andre Swift (shoulder), J.K. Dobbins (knee), James Conner (ribs), Eno Benjamin (foot), Damien Harris (hamstring), Cordarrelle Patterson (knee), Cam Akers (personal), Nyheim Hines (concussion), Deon Jackson (quad), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Mark Ingram (knee), Joshua Kelley (knee), Darrel Williams (knee), Justice Hill (hamstring), Gus Edwards (knee) and Damien Williams (ribs)Number to know: 82 -- Nick Chubb has been held under 82 rushing yards in five consecutive games versus the Ravens and has only topped 100 rushing yards once in eight career games.
Matchup that matters: Kenyan Drake vs. CLE (32nd vs. RB)Waiver add: " Latavius Murray. Melvin Gordon does not look long for this roster, and at least on Monday night Latavius Murray looked better. There's a non-zero chance Murray is getting 15 touches per week. At his age, I'd bet against it, so I don't really want to spend more than 10% of my FAB on him, but Murray is a decent flex this week."Stash: " Jaylen Warren . Even Mike Tomlin has acknowledged that the Steelers need to play Jaylen Warren more. It appears Warren has taken over the third-down role, and he could see even more work moving forward. He's certainly the most explosive Steelers' back this season." | | Consensus Expert Top 24 | | Austin Ekeler, LACChristian McCaffrey, CAR Saquon Barkley, NYGLeonard Fournette, TB Derrick Henry, TEN Rhamondre Stevenson, NEJosh Jacobs, LV Alvin Kamara, NOBreece Hall, NYJJonathan Taylor, IND Joe Mixon, CINNick Chubb, CLEDameon Pierce, HOU Kenneth Walker III, SEAAaron Jones, GB Jamaal Williams, DET Ezekiel Elliott, DALEno Benjamin, ARITravis Etienne, JAC Jeff Wilson, SFNajee Harris, PIT David Montgomery, CHI Tony Pollard, DALRaheem Mostert, MIA | | *My RB Rankings | | | | WR Preview | "In Week 6 the Arizona Cardinals lost Marquise Brown for an extended period, possibly the rest of the season, due to a foot injury. In Week 7, they'll welcome back DeAndre Hopkins . In the same week, they're adding Robbie Anderson. Now is the time for us to make our best guesses what this passing game will look like.
"Without Brown, Hopkins should be the clear alpha wide receiver ..." | On a bye: Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzieInjuries: Marquise Brown (foot), Michael Thomas (foot), Keenan Allen (hamstring), Chris Olave (concussion), Rashod Bateman (foot), Jahan Dotson (hamstring), Julio Jones (knee), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Marvin Jones (hamstring), Treylon Burks (toe), Kadarius Toney (hamstring), Christian Watson (hamstring), Randall Cobb (ankle), D.J. Chark (ankle), Kenny Golladay (knee) and Nelson Agholor (hamstring).Number to know: 34 -- Tyreek Hill leads the NFL with a 34% target per route run rate (minimum 100 routes).
Matchup that matters: Alec Pierce @TEN (26th vs. WR) Waiver add: "Rondale Moore . For as long as Marquise Brown is out, and that may be the rest of the season, I would anticipate Moore locking down the high-volume slot role in this offense. He's far more valuable in full PPR than he is in non, but this week he's a potential starter in both."Stash: "Chase Claypool . One good game shouldn't be enough to move Claypool into your starting lineup, but it should be enough to get him rostered in most leagues. He has the physical traits, it just hasn't quite translated to production. Circumstances could improve in the coming weeks." | | Consensus Expert Top 24 | | Tyreek Hill, MIADavante Adams, LVJa'Marr Chase, CIN Michael Pittman, INDAmon-Ra St. Brown, DET Chris Godwin, TB CeeDee Lamb, DALDeebo Samuel, SF Mike Evans, TBTyler Lockett, SEA Mike Williams, LAC DK Metcalf, SEATee Higgins, CIN Jaylen Waddle, MIADeAndre Hopkins, ARIAllen Lazard, GB Courtland Sutton, DENAmari Cooper, CLEChris Olave, NO Christian Kirk, JACBrandin Cooks, HOU Josh Reynolds, DET Rondale Moore, ARIDiontae Johnson, PIT | | *My WR Rankings | | TE Preview | | "A touchdown bailed out Fantasy owners who trusted Kyle Pitts in Week 6. It may have also provided one last off-ramp if you're looking to move him. | | "While Pitts did score in Week 6 he also posted 19 yards for the third time this season. He was also out-targeted by both Drake London and Olamide Zaccheaus. Pitts is clearly not the No. 1 option in this offense like he was in the second half of 2021, and the pie has shrunk considerably." | | On a bye: Dallas Goedert, Tyler Higbee, Irv Smith and Dawson KnoxInjuries of note: Darren Waller (hamstring), Pat Freiermuth (concussion), Dalton Schultz (knee), Logan Thomas (calf) and Cameron Brate (neck).Number to know: 12.4% -- Tua Tagovailoa has targeted tight ends on just 12.4% of his throws in 2022, the lowest in the league. Matchup that matters: Jake Ferguson vs. NYG (24th vs. TE) Streamer: "Evan Engram. Engram has seen 16 targets over the last two games and gets a revenge game against the Giants this week. He's also one of the top touchdown regression candidates playing this week with zero scores on 32 targets in 2022." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Travis Kelce, KCMark Andrews, BAL George Kittle, SFZach Ertz, ARI David Njoku, CLE Darren Waller, LVT.J. Hockenson, DETRobert Tonyan, GBEvan Engram, JACKyle Pitts, ATL Gerald Everett, LACTaysom Hill, NO | | *My TE Rankings | | Week 7 Trade Talk | | Last week, I advocated for Marquise Brown as a buy-high candidate. Hopefully you weren't able to successfully pull off any moves for him, because he's going to miss a significant amount of time with a foot injury. That's bad news for him, obviously, but also for Kyler Murray and this entire Cardinals offense that was just about to get DeAndre Hopkins back from his suspension. I had Murray as a buy-low candidate last week, so that one stings doubly. | | Of course, nobody can see the future, especially when it comes to injuries. That was just bad luck, but it's the kind of bad luck that may have left your team in a hole. Let's see if we can't help out there. Let's look for some more trade candidates heading into Week 7 -- and if you're looking to make your own trades, make sure you check out Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart so you know how to make the right offers. | | Three to buy-low | | Ezekiel Elliott – I don't think we're ever going to see Elliott be an elite Fantasy option again, but Prescott's return can only mean good things for him. Prescott throws to his running backs a bit more than we've seen from Cooper Rush so far, which will help, but the bigger thing is just that Elliott is going to have a lot more scoring opportunities with the offense moving the ball better. He had 10 touchdowns in 17 games last season, but has just two in seven games so far this season. The Cowboys have shown no inclination to go away from Elliott -- he has played at least 61% of the snaps in each of the past five games -- and this role is about to get a lot more valuable. He's probably an RB2 moving forward. Joe Mixon – Mixon has played at least 66% of the snaps in every game this season and at least 70% in all but one game, something he only did in half his games last season. That is mostly manifesting in more opportunities for pass-catching, which is a great thing, as Mixon is already more than halfway to a career-high in catches. He's got a league-high 16 touches inside of the 10-yard line with just two touchdowns to show for it. Mixon is getting the usage to be an elite Fantasy option, and if the touchdown luck regresses in the right direction, he's going to be a top-five back. George Kittle – Kittle got a much-needed 16.3 PPR points in Week 6, which should assuage some of the concerns people have about him. However, his overall production still looks pretty middling, with 45.5 yards per game representing his lowest mark since he was a rookie. However, Kittle is still averaging 4.8 receptions per game, just below last season's 5.1 mark, so the biggest issue here is that Kittle just isn't getting many downfield targets -- his ADoT is down to a career-low 4.1 yards, less than half last season's mark. I think that's partially a reflection of the absence of left tackle Trent Williams, whose absence has hampered the offense as a whole. Williams is expected back this week, and I think Kittle is going to take off and return to his rightful place as a top-five tight end. | | One to buy-high | | Kenneth Walker – I'm not sure Walker is going to be a top-12 running back the rest of the way, but I think he has that kind of upside. It'll depend on whether Seattle gets him involved in the passing game. He ran a route on 40% of the team's dropbacks in his first start, which is a decent mark, but not a great one. He'll probably never be a high target guy, but if he can settle in around 3-4 per game, top-12 upside is within his reach, because I do expect him to continue to be very good as a runner. He's got explosive big-play ability and is going to get a lot of carries. Walker is someone you want on your team, even if he costs you. | | Three to sell-high | | Zach Ertz – Ertz currently ranks third among all tight ends in expected Fantasy points per game at 15.7, while he's averaging a relatively paltry 12.8 PPR points per game. That's still good for third-best at the position, but given that he's underperforming his role, shouldn't that make him a buy-low? Nah. Expected stats exist to try to identify what an average player would produce in a given situation, but at this point, I don't think Ertz is an average player, even at the tight end position. He's benefited from a massive role in the Cardinals offense but they're leaving points on the field every time they target him. Ertz has turned 11 red zone targets -- tied with Mark Andrews for the fifth-most of any player this season -- into just four catches, 20 yards, and two touchdowns. Ertz is still going to get enough targets to be worth starting, in all likelihood, but with DeAndre Hopkins back from his suspension, I'm going to guess Ertz is no longer going to be the go-to option in the red zone. That's going to be good for the Cardinals offense and bad for Ertz. There's nothing wrong with having a tight end who can give you 10-12 points per game, but I don't think Ertz is anything more than that. JuJu Smith-Schuster – Smith-Schuster's box score line looked better than he actually played in Week 6, I thought. That's not to say Smith-Schuster played bad, I just don't think the 113-yard-and-a-touchdown performance was necessarily the breakout you've been waiting on. He still had just five of the Chiefs 40 targets and only 35 air yards, the latter of which is actually his lowest total in a game since Week 2. Most of his production came on a catch 7 yards past the line of scrimmage where three Bills defenders converged and somehow managed to not bring him down, turning a short gain into a 42-yard touchdown. Take advantage of a kind-of-fluke-y big game from a guy whose role still doesn't look valuable -- and who just might not be a particularly good playmaker at this stage in his career -- to sell. Brian Robinson – Robinson is a fantastic story, which is why I hate to argue against him, even for Fantasy. I'm rooting for him, I just don't think he's going to be much more than a low-end Fantasy option, and he might be valued as something more than that right now. Robinson had 5 yards over expected in Week 6, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which says that he basically got what was blocked for him and not much else. He's a big back but not necessarily a dynamic athlete, and I think more often than not, he's going to get what is blocked for him -- in this Washington offense, that won't lead to huge chunks of yards, more often than not. Add in that he's unlikely to usurp either Antonio Gibson or J.D. McKissic for passing downs, and I think you're looking at a touchdown-or-bust RB3 -- like a lower-upside version of Damien Harris. If anyone values him as an RB2, move him now. | | One to sell-low | | D'Andre Swift – I legitimately think Swift might be one of the five most talented running backs in football. If not, he certainly has one of the Fantasy friendliest skill sets of any running back, thanks to his prowess as a pass-catcher and his knack for big plays. The problem is, he's struggled to stay healthy, having now missed multiple games in each of his three NFL seasons. Injuries happen, especially to running backs, but Dan Campbell talked about needing to keep Swift healthy in training camp, and Swift couldn't even make it through two games before getting hurt -- he suffered an ankle injury before missing the past two games with a shoulder injury. Will the Lions trust him for 15 touches per game? Can he handle that? Or is he fated to be an incredibly explosive role player? The latter is my concern, and it's why I'm ranking him as more of an RB2 for Week 7 -- and why I'd be looking to sell if someone views him as a top-12 guy. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports | | The Early Edge | ✔Scores & Highlights
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