| | | | Wednesday, March 12, 2025 | | 15 days until Opening Day ... | | Betting against Shohei Ohtani really hasn't gone very well since he made his transition to the majors. He had plenty of doubters as he tried to make his way as a two-way player, and all he's done is win three MVPs in four seasons, completely with the very first 50-50 season in MLB history last year. | | And yet, here I am, doubting Ohtani. | | To be clear, I'm not really doubting him as a hitter. Sure, I have him ranked third in my Roto rankings when he's the consensus No. 1 player, but I also think all three of the players at the top of drafts are viable picks at No. 1 overall, with Ohtani third out of three only because he's coming back from shoulder surgery. If you take him first overall, I won't argue with you at all. | | But if you're expecting anything from Ohtani as a pitcher this season, I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Ohtani has had his return to pitching put on hold, with the team saying they want to have Ohtani focus on getting ready for the season as a hitter. He threw off a mound most recently in a bullpen session Feb. 25, so we're almost two weeks removed from that as of publication, and there's no clear timetable at this point for him to get back. | | But even before this pause, I was already lowering my expectations for Ohtani as a pitcher this season. When he's right, he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the chances of him making any kind of impact as a pitcher looked pretty slim all along. Even when we were looking at a potential May return to the rotation, Ohtani was never going to go on a minor-league rehab assignment or pitch in a spring game, which meant he was going to try to come back to an MLB rotation without facing a real game situation since he tore the UCL in his right elbow back in 2023. | | Ohtani has been doing the seemingly impossible for years, but this is all asking too much. In leagues where he is available as a separate hitter and pitcher, he is still going off the board as the No. 41 SP, with an ADP of 133, according to FantasyPros.com, and that's just too rich a price to pay for a guy who won't pitch until May at the earliest, won't pitch in any games before making his MLB debut, and will almost certainly be limited when he is able to return. | | So, Ohtani-the-Pitcher is on my updated Busts 2.0 list. And he'll be joined by eight returning names from Busts 1.0, plus four new names I'll be avoiding over the final two weeks or so of drafts. Let's get to the eight returning names, plus four names I'm removing from the list this time around before we get to the new names: | | Scott White's: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts Frank Stampfl's: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts Chris Towers': Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts | | | | Returning from Busts 1.0 | | | | All ADP comes from NFBC drafts over the past two weeks, to give the most up-to-date sense of pricing. | | Lawrence Butler, OF, Athletics – ADP: 61.1 | | I like the player quite a bit. But not the price. Butler was mostly tremendous upon making his return to the majors after an early demotion last season, hitting .296/.330/.635 over a 61-game stretch from his promotion to the end of August. However, he didn't quite keep it up in September, hitting .280 but with only two homers. So, we're spending a borderline fifth-round pick on a guy with two months of high-level production? It may work out, but it's a bet I'm just not comfortable making. | | Logan O'Hoppe, C, Angels – ADP: 127.4 | | O'Hoppe is a pretty good hitter when he makes contact, but his plate discipline is bad, and his defense is nothing to write home about. Last season, the Angels gave him 522 plate appearances, but he may struggle to get there with Travis d'Arnaud representing a significant upgrade over the team's backup options last season. O'Hoppe is a relatively one-dimensional slugger, and that just isn't a profile I think is worth paying a premium for at catcher unless it comes with 25-plus homers. | | Willy Adames, SS, Giants – ADP: 86.9 | | This is another one where I like the player, and I don't think there's much risk of the bottom falling out, but I just don't love the price. In terms of underlying skills, Adames didn't look much different in 2024 than he did in 2023 (.339 xwOBA vs. .335), but he had much better results – including a career-high (and probably flukey) 21 steals. He's a fine starting SS, but in a worse hitting environment and lineup, on a team that was significantly less aggressive on the base paths, I expect regression pretty much across the board here. | | | | Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets – ADP: 92.9 | | If you're looking for someone with true bust potential, it's Vientos. His plate discipline, though improved, was still pretty bad in 2024 – as I pointed out in Breakouts 1.0, Vientos' in-zone contact rate of 75% was just 197 among 207 qualifiers, while his chase rate was in the 22nd percentile. He has the power to make up for it, but there's a slim margin for error here. If I'm looking for homers from my third baseman, I'd much rather just bet on Eugenio Suarez (157.2) or Isaac Paredes (173.1). | | Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs – ADP: 137.6 | | Crow-Armstrong doesn't hit the ball nearly as hard as Vientos, but he actually ranked lower last year in those plate discipline metrics I just mentioned. He's incredibly fast, and his elite defense will keep him in the lineup, but I have a lot of questions with the bat. And, while his backers will point to his improved second-half numbers, it's kind of a mirage – he had an awesome August, but regressed in September, hitting .256/.299/.378, with a 30% strikeout rate and just a .278 expected wOBA. | | Jacob deGrom, SP, Rangers – ADP: 54.2 | | The case for deGrom is: He's been the best pitcher in baseball when healthy over most of the past decade, and he's currently healthy. Maybe dialing back his velocity will help keep him healthy, but I just can't justify a top-55 price for a guy who hasn't thrown 100 innings since 2019. | | Blake Snell, SP, Dodgers – ADP: 52.2 | | The case for Snell is that his disastrous start to last season was mostly about his late signing date, which meant he was rushing to get ready for the season with no Spring Training. Okay, but what happened in 2023, when he had a 5.40 ERA on May 19? Or in 2022, when he had a 5.22 ERA on July 14? Or 2021, when he had a 5.24 ERA on Aug. 3? Sure, he has a 3.15 ERA and averages 180 strikeouts per season over the past four despite those poor starts, so whether you can justify paying this price for Snell ultimately comes down to one thing: Can you keep the faith when things inevitably go wrong? If you can, he might be worth drafting here – though the fact that he's thrown 130 innings just twice in nine MLB seasons is another reason to be skeptical. But if you are the type who gets antsy and makes trades when players are slumping, you're going to get the worst of both worlds with Snell. I won't be paying the price. | | Felix Bautista, RP, Orioles – ADP: 89.4 | | It seems like there was an assumption with Bautista that because he was so far removed from the Tommy John surgery that ended his 2023 season, that he would be back to himself to open 2025. But I wanted to see it first, and we haven't yet. Bautista made his first appearance in front of the Statcast cameras Friday of this weekend and his fastball velocity was down significantly – he maxed out at 96.8 mph, compared to an average of 99.5 in 2023. I'm not saying he can't still be effective at that level, but we certainly can't assume he'll be the same dominant force he was before multiple surgeries on his right elbow. In fact, the Orioles seemingly aren't even certain Bautista will be on the team's Opening Day roster at this point. I'll take a flier if he makes it to the double-digit rounds, but he almost never does. | | | | Removing from Busts 1.0 | | Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets – ADP: 42.1 | | The return to the Mets has pushed Alonso's price back into the fourth-round range, but I'm fine with that. I'm not sure how well he's going to age – and the tepid market for him in free agency suggests MLB teams share my concerns – but he should hit his usual 35-plus homers with tons of RBI hitting behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. And if he pushes to 40-plus, he's going to be a great pick. | | Luis Garcia, 2B, Nationals – ADP: 122.2 | | I'm still not sure Garcia is going to play everyday for the Nationals – he sat against most left-handed starters last season, even when they were out of it late – and I'm not sure I buy that he's a 20-plus steal guy, but I think the price is more or less fine, even I personally won't be paying it. | | Joshua Lowe, OF, Rays – ADP: 151.4 | | Like with Garcia, I have my concerns about what the counting stats are going to look like here, but I'm starting to think his price is more or less fine. Lowe's quality of contact and plate discipline regressed badly in 2024 after his breakout 2023 season, but I think it's fair to chalk at least some of that up to the oblique and hip injuries he dealt with in spring and then throughout the first half. There's a little bit of playing time risk here, but Lowe feels like a pretty safe bet for 30 steals with decent power at a point in the draft where you typically can't get both of those things together. | | Roki Sasaki, SP, Dodgers – ADP: 105.4 | | After seeing Sasaki's velocity up in his spring debut last week, I'm even more convinced he's going to be good. I still don't think he's really going to be worth a top-100 pick, given the injury risk and innings limitations he's almost certainly going to face – and there could be plenty of times when he's pulled after five great innings or is skipped in the rotation, which will cause plenty of anguish for those of you who do draft – but Sasaki is going to eat when he's out there. | | New to Busts 2.0 | | Garrett Crochet, SP, Red Sox – ADP: 28.6 | | This one might be the ultimate, "I like the player, but I hate the price" example in this year's class. Crochet is incredibly talented, and his 29.6% K-BB% rate wasn't just the best mark among all starters last year; it was the best mark by any pitcher with at least 140 innings since Corbin Burnes in 2021 and the 14th-best mark ever. He got a huge improvement in supporting cast moving from the White Sox to the Red Sox, and won't have any of those frustrating innings restrictions that killed his Fantasy value in the second half of last season. I get the enthusiasm, I really do. But last season was the first time he's ever thrown more than 65 innings in a season, and we just don't know how he's going to hold up to being asked to make 30-plus starts with the expectation of throwing six innings every time out. He might be the best pitcher in baseball, but he also has a lengthy history of injuries and has never come even close to the kind of workload he's going to be asked to provide this year. It just feels like there are way more paths to disappointment than success at this price. | | Yainer Diaz, C, Astros – ADP: 54.8 | | The Astros are trying to keep Yordan Alvarez in the DH spot as often as possible, and with a significant upgrade at first base after signing Christian Walker this offseason, playing time might suddenly be a bit harder to come by for Diaz. He's still going to play plenty behind the plate, of course, but he only got north of 600 plate appearances last season thanks to 47 starts at DH and first base combined. Diaz is an excellent hitter, with the potential to be a standout in both batting average and power if it all comes together, but he shouldn't be the second catcher drafted with the risk of losing playing time from last year. | | Matt McLain, SS, Reds – ADP: 81.1 | | In 2023, McLain looked like a potential Fantasy superstar after hitting 16 homers and stealing 14 bases with a .290 batting average in 89 games, and there's no real discount to be found here despite the fact that he missed all of last season with shoulder surgery and then a rib injury. And that comes after his 2023 season came to an early end due to an oblique injury. Fantasy players are often scared off players with injury histories like that, but it isn't really holding McLain's price back – in fact, he only keeps rising! If his 2023 production were easy to project, it might be worth the risk, but there's some performance risk here, too – his .332 expected wOBA was well behind his actual .370 mark, and there's some scary plate discipline markers in there even beyond the 28.5% strikeout rate. He plays in a great ballpark and an improving lineup, but there's a lot of room for things to go wrong at his price. | | Spencer Steer, 1B/OF, Reds – ADP: 147.1 | | Steer's price is in free fall, dropping to 166.1 in the month of March and down to 178.3 in drafts over the past five days. I think even that might be too high. Steer is still trying to be ready for Opening Day, but that seems unlikely as he continues to deal with a troublesome, lingering shoulder injury . Steer played through that injury for much of last season, but the fact that it's already been enough of an issue this spring that he required a cortisone shot on March 1. He compensated for the injury by altering his throwing and hitting mechanics last season, and while the hope is he'll be able to begin hitting this week, there's no guarantee he'll be himself anytime early this season. And, without being able to throw, he'll be limited to DH and 1B action, which could really impact Steer's playing time, given how much his multi-position flexibility has helped keep him in the lineup. Steer doesn't have a ton of margin for error as a player – he has a pretty good approach at the plate, but his quality of contact is mediocre at best, so any loss of bat speed could make him a fringe-y power hitter even in Cincinnati's ballpark. If he falls to around 200th, I think Steer is still worth the flier, but I do think there's a chance this injury just totally wrecks his season. You should definitely make sure to add first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand to your late-round sleepers list. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | Golazo Network | It's win or go home in the Round of 16! Catch all the action from this decisive second leg, including Liverpool vs. PSG at 4PM ET. Watch every match streaming live on Paramount+.
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