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| Thursday, August 27, 2020 |
| Look, if you're the type of person who subscribes to a daily 2,000-word Fantasy football newsletter, you're not the type of person who is playing for fourth place. You're playing to win, which means you're playing to build the absolute best team possible, risk be damned. |
| We're focusing on two ways to do that today, first by looking for the highest-upside pick in each round to build your team around, and then by diving head first into building a Zero-RB team. Plus, we've got the latest on David Montgomery's groin injury and more from around the NFL. |
| As always, feel free to shoot me an email at [email protected] with the subject line "AskFFT" and your question might be featured here in Friday's newsletter. |
| Here's what we've got on tap today: |
| 🚑David Montgomery goes down 🚀The All-Upside Team 💰Building a Zero-RB winner 📰Training camp injuries, news, and notes |
| đźš‘David Montgomery goes down |
| The good news is, it sounds like David Montgomery avoided the worst-case scenario with his groin injury Tuesday — the word being used in reports was "optimistic." Of course, "optimistic" is a relative term, and optimism after watching a player go down in a heap without being contacted and then being carted back to the practice facility does not necessarily mean the injury is not one to be concerned about. |
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| With just over two weeks left until the Bears kick off the season against the Lions in Week 1, even an optimistic timetable could see Montgomery sit out Week 1, which means we need to prepare for the possibility of Montgomery being out to start the season. As Heath Cummings pointed out Wednesday, what this injury highlights is the lack of depth in the Bears backfield. Unless they're suddenly going to start giving Tarik Cohen 15 carries a game, there is potentially a big hole. |
| One name Heath brought up that made me perk up was Cordarrelle Patterson. NFL teams haven't quite figured out how to get the most of Patterson outside of the special teams game, but he has apparently mostly been working with the Bears running backs in training camp, and probably represents the highest-upside option if Montgomery is out — certainly higher than undrafted third-year vet Ryan Nall, he of the two career carries for 8 yards. |
| If you're drafting this weekend and we don't have a real update on Montgomery — "week to week" won't cut it — you'll probably have to drop Montgomery out of the top six rounds. Tarik Cohen's value as a mid-rounder won't change much, but maybe you move Patterson into the late-round discussion on your draft board. Montgomery in the seventh round seems like a good balance of upside and risk. |
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| 🚀The All-Upside Team |
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| It's all about building a team that can beat all comers, and that means you need stars on stars. Here are the players I would target in every round who offer the most upside — and for this exercise, I'm assuming I'm picking sixth in each round and can only choose from players with an ADP lower than my current pick. Because, yeah, duh, Christian McCaffrey has the highest upside of anyone. |
| First round: Michael Thomas (8.04) |
| The second-highest scoring player in Fantasy last season, can you really argue anyone behind him has more upside? I can't. |
| Second: Austin Ekeler (18.04) |
| I'm a bit worried about what the impact of losing Phillip Rivers will have on Ekeler, but there's a scenario where he catches 80 passes, rushes 175 times, racks up 1,500 total yards and finishes as a top-five overall player. |
| Third: Mike Evans (33.1) |
| As Ben Gretch wrote earlier this week, Evans' downfield role in the Bucs offense makes him one of the highest upside players in Fantasy, on a weekly basis as well as for the whole season. If he hits on 5% more big plays than normal, he's a top-three WR. |
| Fourth: D.J. Moore (44.9) |
| Moore is kind of a cheat code when it comes to best values, because he probably deserves to be a top-24 pick — and he is when our experts are drafting more often than not. A Michael Thomas-esque season is not out of the question. |
| Fifth: Jonathan Taylor (57.7) |
| Honestly, if I was able to start a draft like this, I might walk away and let the rest autodraft, that's how much I like it. Taylor may have to split work early in the season, sure. Maybe for a week, maybe two. Eventually, his talent is going to overwhelm incumbency advantages. |
| Sixth: Kareem Hunt (71.0) |
| This was a close choice between Hunt and D'Andre Swift, but we know the Browns can create elite RB production, and we know Hunt is up to it if he gets the opportunity. We're just guessing on the latter with Swift, and the Lions track record with running backs isn't super promising. |
| Seventh: DeVante Parker (80.7) |
| This is an awfully WR-heavy build so far, but that's perfectly fine — especially in a three-WR league, you probably want this many WR midway through the draft. Parker showed he has No. 1 WR upside, and with Ryan Fitzpatrick all but assured the job to start the season, their chemistry should carry over. |
| Eighth: Hayden Hurst (98.6) |
| We're reaching just a bit here, but Hurst's athleticism in Atlanta's offense could easily lead to a top-three TE season. After all, we saw it from Austin Hooper. |
| Ninth: Phillip Lindsay (104.7) |
| Lindsay's ADP is already rising, but if you can get him outside of the top 70, he's probably still a good value, given that it seems like the situation in Denver could be very close to an even split. And, if Melvin Gordon goes down, Lindsay faces very little competition for touches in an improved Broncos offense. |
| 10th: Cam Newton (115.5) |
| The perfect quarterback for the All-Upside Team, Newton is one of the great risk/reward opportunities in Fantasy this season. If he's his old self, even the lack of talent in New England's receiving corps won't matter much — it's not like we haven't seen him be an elite Fantasy QB without great weapons before. |
| 11th: Jalen Reagor (131.2) |
| A big part of putting this newsletter together everyday involves diving into beat writer reports of camp, and few players have more consistently drawn praise than Reagor. He'll start for the Eagles and could be the top option behind Zach Ertz in this offense from Day 1. There's top-24 WR upside. |
| 12th: Mecole Hardman (141.4) |
| Hardman was absurdly efficient as a rookie, befitting his big-play skill set. If he can expand his role and be the No. 3 option in this passing game, a 1,000-yard season isn't a stretch. |
| 13th: Brandon Aiyuk (152.0) |
| This gives us seven wide receivers on this squad, and it's seven wide receivers you don't even have to squint much to see a top-30 finish from. For Aiyuk, the path looks a lot like Deebo Samuel's a year ago — Samuel finished as WR31 in 15 games. |
| 14th: Joshua Kelley (163.3) |
| In an ideal world, I would grab a backup to Cam here, but since there aren't any QBs with an ADP this late, I'll play by the rules I established already. If the consolation prize is a running back who could replace Melvin Gordon in an offense that routinely made Gordon a top-15 back, that's an easy pill to swallow. |
| 15th: O.J. Howard (177.0) |
| I'm not sure the Fantasy community has adjusted enough to the possibility that Howard will be the No. 1 tight end for the Buccaneers and Tom Brady. If Rob Gronkowski is used more situationally, Howard's upside could shine. |
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| Fantasy Football Today in 5 |
| By the way, our brand new podcast, Fantasy Football Today In 5 just launched.Every morning starting Aug. 31, we'll have a bite-sized podcast ready to catch you up on the latest news. It's perfect for waiting for your coffee to brew or while you walk the dog. Make sure you head to Spotify, Apple or anywhere else you find podcasts to subscribe to Fantasy Football Today In 5 and listen to the just-released trailer. |
| đź’°Building a Zero-RB winner |
| The Zero RB Theory is one of the most over-debated and misunderstood concepts in Fantasy football, so I'll just try to give a quick rundown of the theory: |
| Running backs get hurt more than other positions Running back production is harder to predict than other positions 1 + 2 = Running backs bust out of relatively nowhere and spike from the same place more than other positions 1 + 2 + 3 = The best way to use your draft capital early on is by focusing on positions besides running back. |
| That's a pretty basic rundown, but I think it hits the larger points, for the most part. Basically, if running backs are the least predictable players in Fantasy, paying the most for them is simply paying extra for a lot of risk. It doesn't mean you never draft a running back, but it does mean you de-prioritize the position. |
| Ben Gretch made a pretty good case for why he went Zero RB in our most recent mock draft, with a first eight rounds that looked like this: |
| 1.10: Davante Adams, WR, Packers 2.03: Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs 3.10: Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens 4.03: A.J. Brown, WR, Titans 5.10: Will Fuller, WR, Texans 6.03: D'Andre Swift, RB, Lions 7.10: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens 8.03: Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals |
| I'm sure you're good enough at math to see there are five wide receivers, a tight end and just two running backs through eight rounds, which means he took a bench WR before a running back he can guarantee will be worth starting in Week 1. That's a scary proposition, but the point is that you're going to be so good at other spots that you can live with that until you find acceptable (or better!) options at that position. You won't win the projection system's Draft Day grade, and you might not have the highest projection for Week 1, either. As Ben himself put it: |
| "It's important to emphasize how I leaned into this team-building strategy. Many people who try Zero RB or similar strategies where they don't go as heavy on running backs early only dip their feet into the water. With this team build, I am diving head first into volatility and upside to build a lineup that I want to be able to crush my weekly opponents at all four wide receiver spots (including the Flex) plus tight end. No legitimate proponent of Zero RB is saying that the RB position doesn't matter to Fantasy. To justify intentionally ignoring such a potentially high-scoring position, your weekly advantage at the other lineup positions better be huge." |
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| đź“°Training camp injuries, news and notes |
| More Le'veon Bell - Adam Gase weirdness |
| The relationship between Le'Veon Bell and Adam Gase has never seemed particularly steady, and it got rockier Wednesday in a way that could seemingly only happen with these two. According to Gase, he limited Bell's touches because he had hamstring tightness; according to Bell, his hamstring was fine, and he was more than ready for more work. If you're a pessimist, you see this and you see Gase praising Frank Gore, and you start to get visions of the 2017 Dolphins in your head — and nothing good ever comes from comparisons to the Gase-era Dolphins. If you're an optimist … Well, I guess you just ignore this and hope Gase does the right thing and feeds Bell. The most likely scenario here is Bell still gets the overwhelming majority of the running back touches, but it's becoming easier and easier to envision Gase giving Gore a 40% split of the work, which would be a worst-case scenario for everyone involved. |
| Michel, Green, Carson, A. Miller return |
| We actually got a lot of good injury news Wednesday as Sony Michel (toe) and A.J. Green (hamstring) practiced for the first time, while Anthony Miller (shoulder) was back in team drills for the first time. Green and Michel weren't full participants — and Green likely won't play in the team's scrimmage this Sunday — but this is a good sign for two players whose ADP is starting to plummet. Miller remains one of my favorite late-round WR targets, while Michel and Green still have a lot to prove to justify mid-round investments. Additionally, Chris Carson (personal) is expected to return to the team within the next few days, and sounds like he'll be ready to play in Week 1. |
| Josh Allen will run less? |
| Uh oh. Allen talked about having a different mindset this year Tuesday, saying, "I'm going to try to get the ball into my play-makers' hands and let them make some plays, because they're a lot quicker and shiftier than I am. But when my number is called, I'll step up to the plate for sure." It's not that that's a bad idea — the Bills do have a solid group of play-makers — it's that the idea of Allen needing to rely more on his erratic arm to produce Fantasy points is a terrifying one if you're drafting him as a top-10 QB . It's not time to panic yet, but it does make Allen even more of a risk if you're looking for a QB in the middle rounds. |
| More injuries, news, and notes |
| Chris Godwin hasn't practiced in three of the past six days, and Bruce Arians won't tell us why. Literally. "That's for me to know and nobody else to find out." This could just be standard issue coach crankiness, but it'd be nice to get some details on why a second-round Fantasy pick is being held out of practice every other day. … Parris Campbell is in concussion protocol after a minor car accident. Hopefully all is well, but this is definitely unfortunate for a second-year receiver who looked like he might be on the verge of a breakout. He'll have to be cleared from the concussion protocol before he can play, and that always carries uncertainty. … Nick Foles had the best practice day for any Bears QB Wednesday since camp started , per The Athletic's Adam Jahns. Reading between the lines on the Bears QB competition, it has seemed like they've been looking for any reason to give the job to Foles, so this might just put him ahead of Mitchell Trubisky in what has been a mostly underwhelming QB competition by all accounts. … The Titans signed Jeremy McNichols. Normally, this is the kind of news item I might not even include, but with Darrynton Evans nursing a leg injury and not particularly impressing so far in camp, the Titans could be looking for an alternate option to back up Derrick Henry . Evans is still the backup to draft, but we'll keep an eye on this one. … Miles Boykin could have a bigger role. Given that he had 22 targets, that is potentially not saying much, though in this instance, offensive coordinator Greg Roman said the Ravens are going to "really ask a lot of him this year." Boykin certainly has the physical tools to be a good NFL receiver, but he'll need to prove it early in the season before you want to buy in. … While Mark Ingram remains the starter and Gus Edwards is still a factor, "J.K. Dobbins will have a role in Week 1," per The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec. Dobbins is still the kind of player you should expect you'll have to wait at least a few weeks before you can trust him, but if he gets a few carries and looks good, it may not take long before he's a must-start guy. … Tyler Eifert has developed a strong connection with Gardner Minshew in his first training camp with the Jaguars, and with Zach Oliver out with an injury, Eifert could emerge as a useful tight end with a good start. … Allen Lazard "has solidified the Packers belief that he can be their primary receiving threat behind Davante Adams," per The Athletic. He's one of my favorite late-round WR targets. … Pete Carroll: Carlos Hyde will be a "big factor for us." The thing you have to keep in mind with Carroll is he's never made a public statement about a player that wasn't overly optimistic, but it's not too surprising Hyde will have a role with Rashad Penny likely to open the season on the PUP list. |
| The Fantasy Football Today Draft Guide is here, and I promise, you'll want to have it by your side on Draft Day. We've boiled down everything you need to draft in one place, with consensus expert rankings and auction values, tiers, a round-by-round walkthrough, and Draft Day strategies and rules from Jamey, Dave, Heath and Ben. It's the next best thing to having them next to you while you draft. Head here to sign up for it, because it's absolutely free — which seems like a good value to me. |
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