Builder Confidence Remains Resilient Despite Rising Rates

Mortgage rates may be at the highest levels in more than 3 years, but the housing market has yet to show visible signs of distress. April's release of the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is the latest data supporting that thesis. The headline HMI number is functionally equivalent to builder confidence, and while it is down slightly from the previous month's reading, it remains in historically high territory. Both the HMI and the "buyer traffic" index remained higher than at any other time before the covid-driven real estate boom. While the 6 month outlook is not flying quite as high, unlike the other HMI components, it actually improved from last month. None of the above is to suggest that housing is immune from current concerns. Indeed, the rapid pace of home price appreciation combined with one of the sharpest mortgage rate spikes in history causes understandable headwinds for the industry. Those headwinds are reflected in the HMI dropping from recently higher levels. The resilience is reflected in the fact that those levels are still high by historical standards. Resilience aside, NAHB's Chief Economist Robert Dietz wasn't exactly upbeat, saying "the housing market faces an inflection point as an unexpectedly quick rise in interest rates, rising home prices and escalating material costs have significantly decreased housing affordability conditions, particularly in the crucial entry-level market.”

April 18, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Builder Confidence Remains Resilient Despite Rising Rates Mortgage rates may be at the highest levels in more than 3 years, but the housing market has yet to show visible signs of distress. April's release of the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is the latest data supporting that thesis. T... (read more) MBS Commentary MBS Live Morning: Placeholder Trading Session, But Not Without Some Significance With it being the Monday after a 3.5 day weekend, with London closed, and no significant data on the econ calendar, today's marching orders are to act as a placeholder session. It won't necessarily follow those orders, but if any significant movement... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Rates Jump Back Up to Match Multi-Year Highs The average mortgage lender was quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 5.25% last Monday for top tier scenarios--the highest since late 2018. Rates recovered over the next two days before rising again on Thursday--thankfully not all the way... (read more) Rob Chrisman Capital Markets, TPO, eClose, Warehouse Products; FHA, VA, USDA News Notes to start off the week?! First off, there are some darned clever people around, and this ditty (thank you to John H. for sending) sung to “American Pie” and lamenting the loss of the refi biz, ranks right up there for quality! (“… I can’t rememb... (read more) Mortgage Rates Rates Jump Back Up to Match Multi-Year Highs 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.25% +0.10% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.25% +0.10 0.40 15 Yr. Fixed 4.54% +0.09 0.40 30 Yr. FHA 4.79% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.40% +0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 4.03% +0.01 0.50 Updates Daily - Last Update: 4/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.54% +0.09% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.00% +0.28 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 4.17% +0.26 0.90 5/1 Yr. ARM 3.69% +0.13 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/14 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 4.80% +0.30 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 4.01% +0.25 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.40% +0.29 0.44 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/30 MBS / Treasuries MBS Live Morning: Placeholder Trading Session, But Not Without Some Significance UMBS 30YR 4.0 100.02 +0.03 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.0 100.02 +0.03 UMBS 4.5 101.94 +0.28 GNMA 4.0 100.91 -0.11 GNMA 4.5 102.55 +0.30 Pricing as of: 4/18 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 2.8546 +0.0271 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 2.448 -0.008 5 YR Treasury 2.791 +0.005 7 YR Treasury 2.857 +0.015 10 YR Treasury 2.855 +0.027 30 YR Treasury 2.944 +0.025 Pricing as of: 4/18 5:21PM EST Latest Video CEO of Coldwell Banker Real Estate weighs in on rising mortgage rates and t... Q1 saw record number of New York City real estate sales in 33 years, says H... The 9am Bond Report - April 18, 2022 The 2pm Bond Report - April 18, 2022 Around the Web Realtor.com Homeowner Groups Seek to Stop Investors From Buying Houses to Rent CNBC Homebuilder sentiment drops for fourth straight month, as rising rates push housing to 'an inflection point' Calculated Risk Blog Housing Inventory April 18th Update: Inventory up 3.7% Week-over-week; Up 12.3% from Seasonal Bottom Calculated Risk Blog Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Eye on Housing Remodeling Market Remains Stable Year-over-Year CNBC Treasury yields climb ahead of further inflation data Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales Increased 0.5% in March reuters ANALYSIS-China's widening COVID curbs threaten global supply chain paralysis Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 185,000 CNBC Treasury yields slip amid hopes that inflation may be nearing its peak CNBC ECB brings forward the end of its bond buying as inflation surges Calculated Risk Blog MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 1.05% in March"

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