Bubble Watch: Gonzaga, UNC in trouble

Another day, another addition to the best damn roster in college basketball media.

Actually, make that two additions. Let’s start by giving a hearty Hoops HQ welcome to our new Bracketologist, Brad Wachtel. Brad has worked in basketball for more than two decades. Through his Facts & Bracks newsletter he has become a widely respected bracket expert. Now Brad will bring his authority and voice to Hoops HQ, where in addition to putting together regular bracket projections, Brad will write regular Bubble Watch columns, beginning today.

I know you’ve all gotten spoiled with my stellar Picks Against the Spread column, but now we have another level of expert gambling advice for you. So say hello to our new Betting Editor, Justin Perri. I've admired Justin's data-fueled yet eminently accessible writing on both ShotQualityBets, where he is the lead college basketball analyst, as well as his must-follow Twitter feed. Justin’s understanding of numbers plus his passion for college basketball plus his betting acumen will equal a lot more money in your pockets. (We hope!) His talent and work ethic will fit in perfectly with the obsessive passion all of us have for this wonderful sport.

We’ve also got a profile of Texas freshman Tre Johnson from Krysten Peek — who joined the Hoops HQ squad all of 10 days ago — as well as a midweek edition of my globally popular Hoop Thoughts column to get you through Hump Day and set you up for the busy weekend ahead. That will be the first weekend in February, by the way, and we all know what comes after that.

Have a great Wednesday, everyone, and thanks as always for your support of Hoops HQ. –Seth

Bubble Watch: Gonzaga's In Trouble and UNC's On the Edge

By Brad Wachtel

Good morning and welcome to the first edition of the Hoops HQ Bubble Watch. If you think it’s too early to be launching this exercise, you haven’t paid close attention to the calendar. We are just a few days away from the start of February, which means we are less than seven weeks away from Selection Sunday.

The closer we get to the Big Day, the faster the pages in the calendar are going to start to turn — and the more every game counts.

This is especially true for teams that are on the proverbial NCAA Tournament bubble. One bad loss for a mid-major team could potentially end its chances for an at-large bid, while a dynamic week for a Power 5 team could take a squad from not being mentioned to being squarely on the bubble. The swings will be wild. So will the ride.

I’ve broken the Bubble Picture down into three categories:

Now, let’s dance….

Between the Lines

🏀 The UCLA men's team has been on a roller coaster all season long. Following a rough stretch — and repeated blowups from coach Mick Cronin — the Bruins' season is suddenly looking up, thanks to a 7-foot-3 sophmore center from Spain.

🏀 Title IX Catch-22? The federal law decrees that women’s sports get all the resources men’s do. But as colleges weigh how to divvy up $20.5M to their athletes, the economics of basketball and football and the federal law are at odds.

🏀 No. 1 Auburn got Johni Broome, their star player, back from injury, and won a gritty game on the road at Tennessee. Can anyone stop the Tigers?

No. 4 Alabama @ No. 14 Mississippi State: The Tide begin an incredibly challenging stretch of games on the road against a 16-4 Mississippi State team. These are two top-20 offenses (per KenPom) fueled by elite guards. It'll be interesting to see how All-American Mark Sears bounces back after he was benched in the second half of Alabama's win over LSU on Saturday. 9:00 p.m. ET on SEC Network.