Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes.

Projected Offensive Plays – (16th)

Projected Passing TDs – 25.8 (16th)

Projected Rushing TDs – 17.6 (20th)

Notable coaching changes:

• Replaced Alex Van Pelt with Ken Dorsey at offensive coordinator

Several pieces were changed on the offensive coaching staff. I haven't found confirmation on whether it will be Dorsey or Kevin Stefanski working as the primary play-caller, but my assumption is that it will be Stefanski.

Notable offensive line changes

• Drafted guard Zack Zinter in Round 3

The Browns struggled with health at the tackle spots in 2023, but the interior of the line was awesome once again. And 2023 Round 4 selection Dawand Jones looked really solid at right tackle for a rookie. The left tackle spot was an abject disaster and could serve as a profound area of improvement if Jedrick Willis Jr. can return to form with better health in 2024.

The 2023 Cleveland Browns led the NFL in offensive plays and ranked 10th in points scored. Cleveland's 17-game pace from the five starts that Deshaun Watson made was 432 points, which would have ranked sixth -- just ahead of the Buffalo Bills and behind the Detroit Lions. With better offensive line health, the addition of Jerry Jeudy, and the potential return to form for Nick Chubb, should this offense be projected as a top-10 unit in 2024?

Vegas lookahead lines imply the Browns for 399.5 points in 2024, tying the Seattle Seahawks for 19th. The Colts, Bears, and Jaguars are all implied for more. I expected more respect to be given to the reigning NFL Coach of the Year, but the more that I've thought about it, I think this placement is about right if attempting to capture the wide range of outcomes available to this team. The most important factor when it comes to scoring points is quarterback play, after all.

A key element in forming a 2024 Browns projection is the expected pass rate. Stefanki's 57% pass rate in neutral situations (score within six points) was actually above the league average and the highest that we've seen it during his time with the Browns, but that rate was heavily influenced by the Joe Flacco era. With Watson at QB, Stefanski passed the ball 54% of the time (up from 52% in 2022) in neutral situations.

Any time that we are subjected to Watson playing time, it feels as if Stefanski feels a need to mitigate the negative effect that the QB could have on the game by leaning into the ground game. Still, Cleveland's offseason moves have continued to reflect a desire for a tonal shift to a more pass-heavy approach. Cleveland added a WR in Round 3 of the 2022 and 2023 drafts, traded for Elijah Moore, traded for and signed Jerry Jeudy to an extension, and added another WR in this year's draft (Jamari Thrash in Round 5). We may see more three-receiver sets and pass attempts from the Browns offense than ever before in 2024.

I ended up projecting Cleveland for the 17th-ranked pass rate with a passing touchdown rate that is just above the league average. I have no confidence in Watson. I think that the Browns brought D'Onta Foreman in to serve as a security blanket in case Chubb is not ready to go at the beginning of the season and in case Watson is a disaster again. I'd put the odds of Watson being a disaster that Stefanski has to work around at 50%. So, while a path to surprising passing volume exists within Cleveland's range of outcomes, the median projection falls smack dab in the middle of the league.

We have a 404 dropback sample size of Watson playing over the past two seasons, and while it isn't pretty, there are some interesting tendencies to examine within it.

Target per route run rate with Watson at QB

21.5% - Amari Cooper
17.4% - David Njoku

Yards per route run with Watson at QB

2.34 - Cooper
1.09 - Njoku

Target per route run rate with Watson NOT at QB

24.7% - Amari Cooper
24.4% - David Njoku

Yards per route run with Watson NOT at QB

2.12 - Cooper
1.91 - Njoku

Those splits for Njoku are nuts! He's averaged 8.7 PPR points in healthy games with Watson at QB, which would have ranked him as the Fantasy TE15 in 2023. I have Njoku ranked as the TE11 for 2024, behind Evan Engram and Brock Bowers. He's a beast in the red zone and has been Cleveland's top target when inside the 20. It's possible that Njoku could have a season where he leads all tight ends in touchdowns if Cleveland's offense exceeds expectations. I'm not betting on it.

You might have noticed that Cooper was more efficient on yardage per route run basis with Watson at QB even though his target rate dropped. That's because Cooper has a massive 13.7-yard average depth of target when Watson has thrown him the ball. It's really impressive that Cooper has continued to draw target shares north of 20% while occupying such a downfield-oriented role. He tied Mike Evans for the second-highest active air yardage share in 2023 behind only Tyreek Hill and ranked eighth in active end zone target share. That's a high-upside combination.

The chances of Cooper realizing his hypothetical upside are slim. Downfield targets are low-probability shots by nature, and Watson being the one to deliver them only further lowers the conversion rate. But if looking for upside among wide receivers being drafted beyond the first few rounds of Fantasy drafts, few bring a "ceiling" outcome as high as Cooper's. If this offense produces more passing volume than expected, Cooper could surprise people and give us a 2023 Mike Evans-type of statistical outcome.

Year 4 was certainly the worst of Jeudy's career. And still, he really wasn't as bad as you probably remember.

Jeudy's 1.65 yards per route run rate was nearly identical to teammate Courtland Sutton (1.66). You might remember early in the year when Marvin Mims Jr.'s yard per route run production (on a ridiculously small sample size) was being referenced often on Twitter.com. Mims finished up the year with a rate of 1.55. The Broncos WR average was 1.44. Jeudy -- who was carted off the practice field with a hamstring injury that caused him to miss Week 1 -- was more efficient with his yardage than everyone on the team but Sutton.

The Browns are not exactly known for astute business decisions. Nonetheless, a $52.5 million deal with $42M in guarantees says that Jeudy is likely going to receive plenty of opportunities to succeed in this offense.

Kevin Stefanski on Jeudy:

"Really like his skill set, like his ability to separate, like his ability to make plays with the football... I mean he has the speed, the acceleration, the burst to make plays down the field... So, we're excited about the skillset, we're excited about the person."

Cleveland Browns RB average draft position:

CBS ADP - Chubb (82), Jerome Ford (113), Foreman (177)
Underdog ADP - Ford (127), Chubb (136), Foreman (207)

Chubb is not even in consideration for me at his CBS ADP. There are too many players in that range that I'm super excited about. I love Chubb as a player, but I don't expect him to return to his usual workload or efficiency in 2024, even if he can quickly recover. And that's not even a given, he could miss time to start the year. Chubb will turn 29 this season. This is a really risky profile to bet on, I typically avoid running backs returning from ACL injuries unless they are young and extremely athletic. Chubb is not young and is rehabbing a multi-ligament injury. It's not quite as severe as the complete blowout suffered in 2015, but it is to the same knee, and it did involve surgery to repair his MCL, meniscus, and ACL.

The most likely outcome is that all three backs are involved in some capacity as Chubb works his way back to health.

I'm not all that enthused about drafting Ford, either. He was better than Kareem Hunt in 2023, and so the Browns leaned on him. Hunt ranked 49th in PFF rushing grade, while Ford was 40th out of 59 qualifiers. Do you know who was significantly better than both? D'Onta Foreman has ranked top-30 in PFF rushing grade in each of the past two seasons. Ford is the better passing downs option, but I would not be surprised at all if he lost early-down work to Foreman. And the Browns already made it clear in 2023 that Ford is not trusted when in scoring distance . If tossing a late-round dart with any of these Browns backs, I'd prefer to just wait and take Foreman.

I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July! Thursday, we will be covering the New York Giants. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way.